While the media continue to focus on developments from the recent summit between Pyongyang and Seoul and the upcoming meeting between Pyongyang and Washington, Beijing has taken advantage of the diversion to increase pressure on Taiwan.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a highly-charged speech before the National People’s Congress, warned that Beijing was ready to fight its enemies in a “bloody battle” to regain its past glory and preserve its empire. Subsequently, an editorial in the Global Times, a state-owned but unofficial outlet for ideas that Beijing wishes to float for reaction, said China must prepare for a “direct military clash in the Taiwan Straits”. These are not just words.
In fact, Taiwan is indeed beginning to openly discuss full independence. It is noteworthy that Xi has stated that resolution of the issue of Taiwan cannot be left to the future.
In recent weeks, Beijing sailed its aircraft carrier and associated support vessels through the Taiwan Strait, conducting live-fire exercises, and flew its bombers and fighters around the island nation at least twice last month.
This is not the first display of force by China in the area and China has not hesitated to engage in actual hostilities with regard to Taiwan.
Taiwan Strait incidents
China has always hungered to rein in the renegades on Taiwan, claiming the island is nothing more than a wayward province of the mainland. Also, those recent threats and shows of force by Beijing for the benefit of Taipei were not without precedent. There have been three series of clashes between China and Taiwan in the not-so-distance past.
The first occurred between September 1954 and May 1955 when China took over the Yijiangshan Islands and forced Taiwan to evacuate the Tachen Islands. Both island groups are in the East China Sea just off the coast of Taizhou on the mainland. American news media fixated on the artillery duels that took place between Taiwanese forces on the islands of Quemoy and Matsu and the Chinese army on the mainland.
A second Taiwan Strait crisis took place in August and September 1958, again involving artillery exchanges but also aerial combat between Taiwanese pilots in American Korean War vintage jets and Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in Soviet aircraft of the same era.
A third set of engagements followed from July 1995 through March 1996 when China conducted missiles tests, initially near Pengjia Islet not far off the north coast of Taiwan. Following that, another series of missiles tests landed projectiles inside Taiwan’s territorial waters within 45 to 65 kilometers off Keelung and Kaoshiung ports, the two being on opposite ends of Taiwan.
Commercial airline flights and shipping were disrupted by these events as Taiwan was effectively bracketed by the missiles.
The US stirs the pot
Soon after being elected – but before assuming office – US President Donald Trump accepted a congratulatory telephone call from Taiwan President Tsai Eng-wen. Perhaps this was out of ignorance of the formal US policy of not communicating directly with Taipei or maybe it was a portent of Trump’s upcoming change in policy regarding China. Either way, Beijing was displeased.
In March this year, the US Congress unanimously passed and Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act, designed to give moral and political support to Taipei by encouraging US officials to make recognized visits to the country.
In addition to the perhaps somewhat muted mutterings in Taipei, there were discussions in at least one Washington think tank about abandoning the “One China” policy. Understandably, this has Beijing all the more upset – to the point of threatening Taipei with overflights of its territory.
So, in view of the threat by China to conduct overflights of Taiwan, is that merely talk? Well, there are those three Taiwan Strait incidents that establish the precedent for military action. Regardless of whether the odds of such an event happening are low or high, both Taipei and Washington must be prepared.
The question becomes one of how to respond. Even if China makes only an aerial bluff by running bombers and fighters at the island but turning away at the last minute, such a challenge cannot go unanswered. Verbal or diplomatic protest are not effective in rebuffing such actions – and Taiwan along with its allies would be seen as impotent, thus encouraging more such incursions.
But diverting hostile aircraft away from a planned flight path is not easily done. Certainly, Taiwanese fighters can intercept the intruders and signal for them to turn away, but that might not be successful. And if the Chinese aircraft do intrude into Taiwan’s airspace, what then?
Given the narrowness of the Taiwan Strait – 130 to 220kms – and the range of modern weaponry, Chinese airplanes would be vulnerable not long after reaching the midpoint between the two nations. An incursion into Taiwanese airspace – let alone an actual overflight – would create a major international incident. That says nothing about what could transpire should a Chinese airplane be shot up – or even shot down.
The US added more fuel to the fire by flying two B-52 long-range nuclear-capable bombers within 250 kilometers of Guangdong on the mainland to the west of Taiwan late last month. This is in addition to the Freedom of Navigation (FON) operations conducted by US warships in the South China Sea, not too distant from Taiwan.
Events in the airspace and seas around Taipei are certain to heat up this year, and while it is clear that bullies understand and respect only force, what is not known is how things will play out. Taiwanese independence and Xi Jinping’s face are at stake.
How far will China go? All the way sir.
Nonsense,,,think psnams,Grenada,both gulf wars,,even Vietnam not a lost,,Korean war not a lost south Korea remained south Korea,,China no match for american navy,plus our allies,,us will defend Taiwan to send message n to reassure Korea,Japan n other south Asian countries our commitment
No doubt the many US provocations in the region has made China grumpy. Taiwan is just a pawn in the US geopolitical strategies. China must take some self-criticism, is it a clever idea to fund the US war machine by having $ 1 trillion in US bonds? In my view that is dangerous.
The US is at financial war with China and Chinas friends. We see the US tariffs, US bullying and wars against China’s friends. The US/EU funding and support of separatist movements in Xinjiang and other regions. If the US/Israel/Saudi attack Iran, the oil price will go up and severely hurt China’s economy. China should stop funding the US, invest the money in new markets, green energy, and be come independent of US agricultural products.
The Taiwanese should choose whatever they want. I think the Taiwanese, in due time, will conclude better relations with China will be good for Taiwan and Taiwan should not take part in any US ploys to impose tariffs and sanctions to hurt China.
Taiwan is different from China, so they want to be independent or have full autonomy, just like Hong Kong and the Macao Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China. Fair enough.
Gary Battaglia The Impressive US victory in Grenada is more an embarrassment than a victory. The war codenamed Operation Urgent Fury was intended to liberate 600 US medical students that refused to be rescued. The US students were very happy in Grenada where US students could get an excellent quality education of the fraction of the costs, compared to the US.
The US used 7.600 soldiers to disarm a few hundred Cuban construction workers from their saws and hammers. Impressive. As usual, with these fancy “pin-point” accuracy US bombs a hospital™.
The $ 7 TRILLION down the drain wars in the Middle East, has resulted in millions of casualties and refuges. The wars in South East Asia has all flopped. In my humble opinion it would be better to spend the $ 7 TRILLION helping the 1,6 million US homeless, help the US veterans, improve the US public schools, and the US infrastructure.
Gary, I guess when the Americans wake-up and figure out the the debt accrued to fund this war has to be paid, they will conclude false flags, covert operations, regime changes, and wars is a costly bad idea.
Gary Battaglia that is your opinion
China’s military is manned entirely by "little emperors"
It wouldn’t take many casualties before parents object to the CCP using their only childs lives to protect its paper thin legitimacy
You have a point there. In fact lately China has had to lower their standards for physical fitness.
In the end I am sure that China could occupy Taiwan, but it would be at a very high cost far beyond just military costs and casualties. And what would China gain for it besides soothing it’s glass heart?
I think you hugely overestimate Russia – even assuming that they would want to get involved in such a mess.
so easy to say. much harder to do
Battaglia lives in Disneyland when he says Vietnam War is not a lost for the US. Unable to defeat the heroic Vietnamese, the US withdrew from Vietnam and the communists took over the whole of Vietnam. If that is not a loss then what is it ? If this is a victory, it makes Alice in Wonderland looks like real world. Unfortunately, after the 2nd World War, US foreign policy seems to come out from Disneyland, simply not based on an objective and realistic evaluation of the world but mostly mirroring the greed and psychosis of the US leadership.
US fantasy guided foreign policy even before the 2nd World War. Read the book by James Bradley " The China Mirage ." Since 1850, US policy towards was and still is based on a mirage.
Talk is cheap, China has put on full spectrum warfare on Tsai for two full years now, if Obama+Trump has not only done nothing but actually pretend not to see it, why should China hold back? Why does a website even bother to publish off-off-off-off-mainstream talking heads like McCoy? Even the hawks are not listening. South China Sea has oil so there’s at least some noise about defending there, except… well different story.
Trump joked once about abandoning One China Policy, then he joked about selling out Taiwan for a trade war bargaining chip. Both Beijing and Taipei should know Trump’s limit is shoot a few missiles from a distance.
If there’s some will to protect Taiwan, US would gift weapons, not sell old junk at a big fat profit, to Taiwan. Ref: Taliban in the 80s.
Everyone wants to contain China but no one would do any heavy lifting.
Greatest REAL threat to Taiwan is TTW Trump Trade War.
Bussines will be one as I China needs.
Taiwanese are courageous people they will defend Taiwan with might. Like Israel is surrounded by enemy Arabs similarly china is surrounded by many neighbouring enemies. China dare not attack Taiwan. 1 country 2 system is workable for peaceful settlement.
China has never once controlled Taiwan. There is nothing to "retake".
Gary Battaglia china will unite the Taiwan island even at the cost of the islands total destruction, one day you will see China greater than America in everything…..
You are a pretty big shit joker
Warren Lauzon i respect your restraint.Russsia and China appear weak.Js like Russia appeared weak to Hitlers Germany.Well appearances are deceptive.
Barnaby Yeh I keep hearing this nonsense claim made but unfortunately it makes no sense. The island of Taiwan was claimed, controlled, and defended (I.e. against the Dutch and other European powers) since the Qin dynasty over 2,000 years ago. It has been directly governed by China since the start of the Qing dynasty almost 400 years ago. And the PRC would have taken it back 70 years ago but the U.S. navy prevented unification as it made a convenient puppet state to "represent" China at the UN and theoretically invade China at a later date. Now it’s viewed by the U.S. government as a convenient bargaining chip in negotiations with China, a large consumer of obsolete weapons, and a possible addition to the U.S.’s "China containment strategy."
Warren Lauzon China got to keep its sovereignty in the Korean War. It’s a matter of public record that the general of the UN led force intended to invade China. China only attacked the UN troops when they started preparations to invade at the Yalu river. China pushed them back twice and retreated back across the Yalu before they were forced to pushed the UN army back into South Korea. They fought a multinational army which was better equipped, trained, and supplied. That’s why they lost so many. But to this day they are the only nation to defeat an entire UN army own their own (the UN forces called for the armistice) and China obviously got to keep its independence and got a convenient buffer state as well.
It would claim the contested super power position.
Milton Mugabe Russia has a lot of problems of it’s own – I doubt they would want to get into a war alongside China.
What are you waiting for!!!! Lets get ready to rumble!!!!! China is a bullied and greedy country….they have a big land why they want conquer the small island that they have not belong for it…scarbourogh….taiwan even if the island in japan…..how dare you to owened evething in asia…you are not sattisfied in your owend a big lang!!!!….don’t try to invade japan or else they kick your ass or they put you in garbage disposal….
Leo Torres so we will live in fake world-all things are fake from china
let your pla decide a war with america and its allies now and we will see who will win
Warren Lauzon if china invade taiwan, im sure, they will follow the fate of genghis khan (the barbaric general the world has ever produced (what happen to genghis khan(timotei) now, and where his descendants?)
Ayaw n.nga ng taiwan.sa.inyo china…
Seriously you have to be one of the stupidest people on the face of the planet
I understand that China will unswervingly the world but the world will always have the best and most powerful things that
I think it would probably be smarter to talk about the issues than play around wiyh starting world war 3.
Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, no matter who pleads what.By geography or by history, it was and is a part of China. But I do not know, why PRC is lignering with the small problem with Taiwan. It is a matter of a week for China to make Taiwan to surrender. Taiwanese people should be very proud to being Chinese. PRC would be ready even to adopt One country , two systems as done with Hongkong. I do not think, USA will intervene militarily. She knows how powerful China is .
The Mainland China is the trouble maker and this economic powerhouse has a nuclear weapon that not even the USA,Russia and Japan including the Philippines can do something about it.
Gary Battaglia dont bluff people, you retard
Gary Battaglia… Granada you call that a war wtf..even we in Singapore send our national service man also we win.Please go YouTube to see how American dump the helicopter into sea in panic to run away,south Korea remain you must be high on drugs cause China then was a rag-tag army and yet American was push back into the 38 parallel.
Putin Raz …China never declared wars on any country. But ask your American father to help Taiwan declares independent and there will definitely be wars .
Russia will never support china in case of war between US and China but it may sell its weapons to china
Put all these dangerous speculations as headlines on your Sunday evening news papers, you would probably not have anyone to buy or read them. America, Russia and China are led by people with a head. You war mongers carry only empty skulls above your shoulders. Take a break! A long one indeed.
Not worth fighting just say this is yours .
Arthur Micol
Why does not china return occupied kashmir to india before talking about her rights and morals. Thing is that china is a untrustworthy and moralless country which stabs friends on the back