Last week I was in England at a symposium with many Europeans and others from around the world. The main takeaway? Nonstop gratuitous insults of Donald Trump, America, and Americans – underpinned by complaints that America is “undependable” and “unpredictable” and can no longer be trusted.
Meanwhile, a friend visiting Australia told of being asked almost on arrival: “So, what do you think about America not being dependable anymore?”
Message to Europe, Australia and elsewhere: Except for a handful of people in Washington, DC and the foreign policy establishment, in the United States almost no one is worried about being considered “undependable.”
This is particularly so if “dependable” or “predictable” means offering up young American men and women to fight and die for people, even allies, who neglect their own defense – or won’t lift a finger to help when needed, as in the ongoing Iran fight.
And sometimes absolute predictability isn’t a desirable trait – even in alliances. It creates complacency and you’re easily outmaneuvered.
For example, if the less powerful side in the relationship thinks Americans are “dependably” going to fight for them no matter what they do or don’t do, they may be tempted to do as little as possible – if post-Cold War Europe is anything to go by.
Trump’s wasn’t the first administration to ask more of NATO. Those who asked earlier were mostly ignored. No wonder Trump used harsh language – Queens (New York) English – and hurt some feelings.
Farther afield, Australia has a very professional force, but it is too small and has been starved of funds and coherent strategic direction. Canberra doesn’t seem eager to do much about it – and it will take more than buying a few nuclear subs from the Americans, even if they are expensive.
Maybe the US was too predictable for too long?
And the Japanese – certain of US defense coverage – spent sixty years figuring out the minimum they needed to do defense-wise, and then doing a little less. Tokyo has awakened and recognizes that the more it bolsters its own defenses – money, hardware, manpower – the more dependable are the Americans.
As the ruling LDP’s defense study group noted earlier this year:
No country will come to the aid of a nation that is not prepared to defend itself. Japan, too, must clearly demonstrate its national resolve to defend itself and show the determination and resolve to serve as a standard-bearer for peace and security in the region.
Get the ambassadors out of town
Slinging insults at the Americans may feel good and may resonate in the echo chamber. But do it enough and the Americans whose children pay the freight won’t be just undependable, but unwilling to help you.
European ambassadors, along with Australian and other ambassadors, need to get out of Washington. Go talk to the Rotary Clubs and PTA’s in Youngstown, Ohio, and Hutchinson, Kansas, parts of “flyover country,” and make their cases – and try out the “undependable,”
“untrustworthy” lines, if they dare.
But, even better, listen.
It seems foreign elites’ information about Americans tends to come from:
- The American press;
- The European press, which is often simply regurgitating the American press;
- The American elite/establishment, much of which is firmly anti-Trump – which is fine, but Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS), as opposed to simply anti-Trump, means that “Trump is stupid” is the starting point.
Hence, the open laughter when Trump warned Germans about relying on Russian energy (2018) or when Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio talked about Europe becoming ever less free (2024/2025).
It doesn’t help, of course, that so much of the American academic establishment is also afflicted with TDS, so that the supposedly more objective, less passionate folks are spewing the same vitriol.
Foreign elites might also think they just have to wait out Trump and then things will return to normal.
But Trump is tapping into and even reflects a broader vein of American isolationism (or at least a desire to be left alone and not get involved in far-away fights) that has been omnipresent since the late 19th century – and that the DSA-led Democrats will likely also support if/when they come to power. Then what will the Europeans, Australians, and others do?
Some of the Left / Green political class might not mind.
Russia and China won’t mind either. But for different reasons. They will smell opportunity.
Ultimately, this isn’t so complicated.
“At the end of day, I am not sure we are the unpredictable, undependable ones,” my friend who was waylaid in Australia told me. “We will fight and we will fight for others no doubt – but not on their behalf when they don’t have real skin in the game.”
And when the Royal Navy takes a week to send its one available destroyer toward Cyprus after Iranian drones hit a British base, and the Australian Navy has maybe 11 surface combatants to cover a huge chunk of the Indo-Pacific, that is not skin in the game.
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book When China Attacks: A Warning To America.
