The doomsday predictions of an impending India-China confrontation in the Himalayas are petering out. The two countries are earnestly exploring a pathway to lead them to a détente.
This is the most obvious meaning of the announcement by Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on Sunday that an informal meeting has been scheduled between President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on April 27-28 in Wuhan, capital of central China’s Hubei province.
Wang was addressing a joint press conference with India’s visiting External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj.
By making the formal announcement in the presence of Swaraj, Beijing showed respect and high regard for the low-profile, self-effacing Indian minister who had suggested informal meetings between the two leaders to stabilize Sino-Indian ties and launch relations on a higher trajectory during Wang’s visit to Delhi last December.
The idea of an “informal meeting” is innovative and in the India-China context today it signifies a breakthrough. Xinhua cited Wang as saying that the new format aimed at “strategic communication on the world’s profound changes, and exchange, in an in-depth manner, views on overall, long-term and strategic issues regarding China-India relations.”
Beijing keen to deepen mutual trust
The Chinese side hopes to develop a “big picture” for the relationship from a long-term strategic perspective. The intention is to avoid the past mistake of missing the wood for the trees.
More importantly, Wang underscored that the informal meeting would “help deepen mutual trust between the two leaders, make strategic judgment on world patterns and China-India relations, and guide the two countries to set new goals and open up new prospects for bilateral ties.” He was confident that such a process “not only benefits the two countries and peoples, but will also exert significant and positive influence on regional and world peace and development.”
Wang described China and India as “natural cooperation partners.” He summed up, “The two countries should take the opportunity of the leaders’ meeting to cement strategic trust, deepen substantial cooperation, properly settle disputes and realize common development, therefore contributing to regional and world peace and development.” These are hugely significant remarks underlining China’s expectations.
Indeed, the new format can be expected to incrementally develop a critical mass of strategic understanding, while being flexible enough to create space for each side to pursue its interests in the international arena. The format presents a novel experience for India, whose diplomacy traditionally moved within structured grooves.
Although Swaraj’s proposal regarding the informal meeting took over four months to germinate on Chinese soil, much has been happening in this period. The turning point was the visit by India’s newly appointed Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale to Beijing in February. Beijing has confidence in Gokhale, a former envoy to China, to bring new thinking into the bilateral relationship. China’s Vice-Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou conveyed the dates for the Wuhan meeting to Gokhale during his “return” visit to Delhi in early April.
Suffice to say, the meeting in Wuhan will be anything but an impromptu encounter. Interestingly, Modi is undertaking an overnight trip and will have several hours of talks with Xi.
Both countries disenchanted with the US
The conversation will be imbued with what wang described as “the world’s profound changes.” Both China and India feel disenchanted with the United States – each for its own reasons – and there is no doubt that the two countries are stakeholders in free trade and globalization. And India has no illusions that President Donald Trump has the trade balance with India in his sights, too.
Despite Modi’s best efforts to draw the US into a relationship that would help in his vision to transform India as an emerging power, all he got was a periodic flow of mellifluous rhetoric pandering to Indian vanities. Modi, a down-to-earth politician with native Indian wisdom, knows that it is empty vessels that make big noise.
The US has been largely focused on penetrating the Indian market for its exports – military exports, in particular. Equally, India understands that there is no such thing as a “Thucydides trap” threatening US-China relations and Washington’s strategy is to negotiate more effectively with China – be it under Barack Obama or Trump.
In the Asian scenario too, Modi places great store in India’s relations with Russia and Iran and will not be stopped on his track by Trump’s policies. Trump placed India on a high pedestal in his so-called South Asia strategy in relation to the Afghan war, but Delhi harbors profound misgivings regarding the war itself and the lack of transparency in the US approach.
A significant outcome of the Wuhan meeting could well be that India and China work together to strengthen regional security. The Wuhan meeting will be taking place just six weeks before the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Qingdao (which Modi is due to attend).
Modi keen for big Chinese investments
The strategic communication aims to harmonize the two countries’ South Asian policies. The effort will be to avoid treading on each other’s toes while pursuing legitimate interests. The bottom line is that Modi is keen to draw big-time Chinese investments into the Indian economy. And on its part, China sees the Indian economy as the last frontier.
But mutual confidence is needed. Nepal becomes a test case with Beijing repeatedly signaling interest in a trans-Himalayan economic corridor to India. Meanwhile, Delhi has visibly toned down its skepticism regarding China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Delhi has reached this point after a long four-year path of confronting China – a tortuous sojourn that eventually proved futile, counter-productive and unsustainable. Modi’s own instincts would have been to create a foreign-policy legacy by transforming India’s relationship with China, and ironically, Beijing also probably saw in him initially a rare forceful Indian leader with whom it could do business.
But Modi ran into strong headwinds from powerful quarters within India, which viewed China’s rise through a prism of envy, suspicion and fear, mixed with an irrational sense of rivalry and paranoia, which was of course steadily fuelled by western think tanks and media. These forces (and affiliated interest groups) still remain very much at large. But, if any Indian leader has the grit and tenacity to put them on a tight leash, only Modi could do that. The Chinese most likely realize that too.
Laxmi Pavitram , you are speaking like a grown up child . Reach some maturity in your thinking .
You have very poor understanding about what Modi is doing for India . And like an idiot you are calling him idiot !
Bal Krishna Koju Mr koju, stop bullshiting. I stated the facts as they exist. Ignoring them will lead to submission of India to new far east India company lead by so called middle kingdom. You called me fool, but you seem like a bigger fool. There is no inferiority complex here. One should never trust China. One idiot called Nehru did it, and we all know what happened. Never trust CPC blindly
Bal Krishna Koju sir, india was unified under emperor ashoka, long before China was unified. I understand you are from our neighborhood, so if you don’t like india it’s fine. We are not saying anything bad about anyone, just putting points for India. So what is your problem?
Pakistan has no standing, it belongs to China, so whose asking you
Vk Jain sir such arrogance is not suitable for country made by others than its nationals. Think what contribution is made by your slave ancestors to make such big country
The two great countries destiny is tied together,co-opereate and change Asia for better or bicker and push the progrees, once again, Thousands years back.Those who forget the HISTORY ARE DOOMED FOR EVER.Coperation and Competion are good for the countries, it builds a good and strong tree, which bears healthy fruits.
Srinivasa Nanduri India is enslaved because it is full of foolish people like you you cant see western hyenas waiting for India and china to fight so that it can weaken and destroy both. They are provoking india pretending to be helping and friendly to India whereas they equally hate indian and chinese . Their motive is to just check rise of Asians and fools like couldnt see it. Britain and France fought war for hundreds of years yet you can see how they cooperate. Indians are suffering from Inferior complexity and just hanging on small boarder skirmishes of 1962 in which it got defeated whereas forgetting 100 years of slavery sufferings and humilation from west. I surprised do indians have dignity or are habitual with western master
Very correct assessment . I agree with you . The ball is in China’s court . If China is sincere , the meeting between Xi Jinping and Modi shall be of any use .Otherwise that meeting is going to be a farce.
Modi tried his best to develop friendly ties with China. . But Xi responded by opposing India on all forums . China stooped so low that it supported a terrorist like Masood Ajhar.
What China achieved ? China is solely responsible for the formation of the Quadrilateral Alliance of the US, Japan, India and Australia against China .
This happened because China unnecessarily antagonised India . The result was that Modi had no other alternative but to join a military alliance against China .
China has created many enemies and just a few friends.
Let us hope that the Chinese leaders do some serious introspect and try to normalise the fast detiorating relations between China and India.
Madam, enjoy democracy in India and to curse its leaders. In many other countries, this luxury is not there.
If Modi is smart he will use this get together to make this relationship work——–if Xi is wise enough he will use this get together to make this relationship work. It is in the interests of both Countries for a positive outcome——-they do share a common border——–I think both parties realize now is the TIME and as my late mother always said ——-"Strike while the iron is HOT!!
We have a leader in india who lacks vision and will to bring painful changes that india requires unlike Xi who rooted out corruption in China.He has basically dictatorial tendencies and he is in awe of Xi after he was elected leader for life by the chinese communist party. The idiot should realize that it is not possible in india.
The idiot should focus on fixing the legal system (which is totally dysfunctional) , tax system and infrastructure in india instead of hopping to foreign countries at the slightest pretext and hugging foreign leaders in a display of servile attitude.
He should realize that foreign trips will not give him another five years. He should be better than this.
Peter, only non hostile relationship is possible…I am sure friendship is not possible. Even non-hostile relationship happens it will prevent wars in Asia like World War in Europe.
Sir, here two big countries are speaking…you should know your place…
Mr. Fam , Why were Chinese friends of US against USSR, leading to its break up…. Now US is friends with INdia..why are you so scared…. Come on , your country’s name means centre of world…so why scared…. But the rest of world know centre is just point in a circle …but rest is different…SO now Mr Fam…all these trademark hynea style cunningness is old thing ..people have become smarter..Oh hard luck.
India China are like Petrol and Diesel. Incompatible. This visit probably has more to do with impending regional instability to be caused by trade disruptions by USA then anything else. And it will be a give and take. Not Chinese way.
Modi will loose politically if he panders beyond a point to China. And yes China has utter disdain for India and India has utter contempt for china. Mutually suppressed hostility exists.
India is the only nation proud enough, stupid enough and stubborn enough to standup to China if a situation arises. And win or loose India will still exist causing perennial problem to China. Only way is sit and talk.
Keep dreaming.
Natural Partners is a strong word. Sino Indian relationship is full of pot holes.
1. 1962 backstab and humiliation
2. Pakistan which supports terrorists / CPEC which violates POK status quo
3. Unresolved border and inflexible approach which lacks give and take
4. Trade imbalance
5. Chinese penetration into India peripheral region
6. NSG
These are few problems listed. Not all. This looks more a tactical retreat than anything else.
India will never join BRI and India-Nepal-Tibet economic corridor is strategic investment, a uneconomical route to reach north India and defeating India strategically without fighting war. India will be a bigger looser if it accepts it, after Chinese slap of CPEC.
China already dumping goods via assembly sweat shops of Bangladesh, Srilanka and Thailand into India.
China should be told to explore Kolkata Nathula Lhasa route instead. And demarcate LAC first. And should instead of exporting it’s overcapacity, turn to internal consumption.
It will have to put substantial investment and build factories in India if it wants to do business with it.
India cannot be trusted, Modi is a wall street puppet who was installed for American agenda in indian sub-continent
Author is as usual wrong. Indians never envy China. Indians like me were giving example of Deng’s reforms to fellow Indians and were even praising China. But China trying its best to curtail India’s rise by denying membership of UN security Council, NSG, by tactically supporting likes of terrorist, Masood Azar, propping Proxy like Pakistan and not allowing Indian goods the market access. On top it asking to approve CEPC that passes through Indian territory, for which India has all rights to do what they could do with any construction on their sovereign territory. The best way to increase trust is border peace, then trade deficit reduction and then supporting Indian membership in International organisation’s. And India cannot abandon friendship with US. China did not abandon friendship with US against Russia in 1979 to grow faster. I am actually supporter of India – China friendship but it needs to be fair, pragmatic and definitely anyone should try to even a bit to threaten India. Possibly as Indian, author will know that threatening Indians is counter-productive
The two countries are natural partners since ancient time. India indeed has a very forceful impact on the Chinese culture and religion. There are border issues to be negotiated and solved. It is not intractable. Together they could exert a very significant impact on the world.