The doomsday predictions of an impending India-China confrontation in the Himalayas are petering out. The two countries are earnestly exploring a pathway to lead them to a détente.
This is the most obvious meaning of the announcement by Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on Sunday that an informal meeting has been scheduled between President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on April 27-28 in Wuhan, capital of central China’s Hubei province.
Wang was addressing a joint press conference with India’s visiting External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj.
By making the formal announcement in the presence of Swaraj, Beijing showed respect and high regard for the low-profile, self-effacing Indian minister who had suggested informal meetings between the two leaders to stabilize Sino-Indian ties and launch relations on a higher trajectory during Wang’s visit to Delhi last December.
The idea of an “informal meeting” is innovative and in the India-China context today it signifies a breakthrough. Xinhua cited Wang as saying that the new format aimed at “strategic communication on the world’s profound changes, and exchange, in an in-depth manner, views on overall, long-term and strategic issues regarding China-India relations.”
Beijing keen to deepen mutual trust
The Chinese side hopes to develop a “big picture” for the relationship from a long-term strategic perspective. The intention is to avoid the past mistake of missing the wood for the trees.
More importantly, Wang underscored that the informal meeting would “help deepen mutual trust between the two leaders, make strategic judgment on world patterns and China-India relations, and guide the two countries to set new goals and open up new prospects for bilateral ties.” He was confident that such a process “not only benefits the two countries and peoples, but will also exert significant and positive influence on regional and world peace and development.”
Wang described China and India as “natural cooperation partners.” He summed up, “The two countries should take the opportunity of the leaders’ meeting to cement strategic trust, deepen substantial cooperation, properly settle disputes and realize common development, therefore contributing to regional and world peace and development.” These are hugely significant remarks underlining China’s expectations.
Indeed, the new format can be expected to incrementally develop a critical mass of strategic understanding, while being flexible enough to create space for each side to pursue its interests in the international arena. The format presents a novel experience for India, whose diplomacy traditionally moved within structured grooves.
Although Swaraj’s proposal regarding the informal meeting took over four months to germinate on Chinese soil, much has been happening in this period. The turning point was the visit by India’s newly appointed Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale to Beijing in February. Beijing has confidence in Gokhale, a former envoy to China, to bring new thinking into the bilateral relationship. China’s Vice-Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou conveyed the dates for the Wuhan meeting to Gokhale during his “return” visit to Delhi in early April.
Suffice to say, the meeting in Wuhan will be anything but an impromptu encounter. Interestingly, Modi is undertaking an overnight trip and will have several hours of talks with Xi.
Both countries disenchanted with the US
The conversation will be imbued with what wang described as “the world’s profound changes.” Both China and India feel disenchanted with the United States – each for its own reasons – and there is no doubt that the two countries are stakeholders in free trade and globalization. And India has no illusions that President Donald Trump has the trade balance with India in his sights, too.
Despite Modi’s best efforts to draw the US into a relationship that would help in his vision to transform India as an emerging power, all he got was a periodic flow of mellifluous rhetoric pandering to Indian vanities. Modi, a down-to-earth politician with native Indian wisdom, knows that it is empty vessels that make big noise.
The US has been largely focused on penetrating the Indian market for its exports – military exports, in particular. Equally, India understands that there is no such thing as a “Thucydides trap” threatening US-China relations and Washington’s strategy is to negotiate more effectively with China – be it under Barack Obama or Trump.
In the Asian scenario too, Modi places great store in India’s relations with Russia and Iran and will not be stopped on his track by Trump’s policies. Trump placed India on a high pedestal in his so-called South Asia strategy in relation to the Afghan war, but Delhi harbors profound misgivings regarding the war itself and the lack of transparency in the US approach.
A significant outcome of the Wuhan meeting could well be that India and China work together to strengthen regional security. The Wuhan meeting will be taking place just six weeks before the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Qingdao (which Modi is due to attend).
Modi keen for big Chinese investments
The strategic communication aims to harmonize the two countries’ South Asian policies. The effort will be to avoid treading on each other’s toes while pursuing legitimate interests. The bottom line is that Modi is keen to draw big-time Chinese investments into the Indian economy. And on its part, China sees the Indian economy as the last frontier.
But mutual confidence is needed. Nepal becomes a test case with Beijing repeatedly signaling interest in a trans-Himalayan economic corridor to India. Meanwhile, Delhi has visibly toned down its skepticism regarding China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Delhi has reached this point after a long four-year path of confronting China – a tortuous sojourn that eventually proved futile, counter-productive and unsustainable. Modi’s own instincts would have been to create a foreign-policy legacy by transforming India’s relationship with China, and ironically, Beijing also probably saw in him initially a rare forceful Indian leader with whom it could do business.
But Modi ran into strong headwinds from powerful quarters within India, which viewed China’s rise through a prism of envy, suspicion and fear, mixed with an irrational sense of rivalry and paranoia, which was of course steadily fuelled by western think tanks and media. These forces (and affiliated interest groups) still remain very much at large. But, if any Indian leader has the grit and tenacity to put them on a tight leash, only Modi could do that. The Chinese most likely realize that too.
Alle Ibrahim sir, your comment Cepc does not pass through Indian territory is evidence, there would be no co-operation. Under International law, this area currently is disputed in Indian sub-continent and therefore as per the law any construction on it belongs to India. Lets there be no doubt it and India will take it. Being peaceful country does not mean we will let others take advantage of India’s peaceful nature.
Mohammed Karim sir, India existed for more than 5000 years. EMPEROR Ashoka, who was also your forefather, unified India before even Ancient China. This india is our AKhand Bharat, and a few foreigners cannot take it away. What is good for India or not, Induabs will decide. If push come to shove, as you know India liberated even your country try without casting bad eye on any part if land and captured 90000 soldiers including generals of opponent country. That was 1971, now there us no country try that can scare India. But india will not use its power, as if it does, democratic Indian people will oppose it. S8 THAT IS THE SOFT POWER
Vk Jain Its a fact of life that India exists because of her diverse culture,not the zioistic attitude of few!
Indian Market means it belongs to India. I guess India is in better is it in to decide what is best for them. No amount of co-ercion will make india and Indians bent. This is nature of Indians. If by peaceful, netting of mind is approached with patience. Then may be
Sir, the Cooperation in projects is by meeting of minds and no country will support project made through their territory without asking them. Cepc is made on Indian territory. If you are happy, then I am not. Please use the money given by rich China for benefit of common MSN in your country. INDIA will be happy, don’t worry, but don’t expect market access to precious Indian market through this project. Other mutual projects are possible. Good luck, let hatred towards india do not blind people.
Sir,Sino-Indian détente could ignite economic regenaration of Indian economy and technology with regional peace and stability! Indian market potential is an incentive to Chinese investment!
the problem is that INDIAS politicians back being constantly pat on by the anti-china agenda has reached a point of historical loss..who divided india,not china,who is reaching out to alleviate the poverty and strife in asia 70 years after independence not the west,without nehrus make india policy and chairman mao long stand,asia would be left to the vultures,it is now imperative that india join the economic belt and road,yes indians must understand that the belt and road is not political,it is economic,it is only political to those who want divisive agenda and divisive politics..
Sammy Ahmad sir, please respect each other even in debates. Even if you do not like India, it’s fine e, but you can highlight that there are social problems and why not, it is a large country. So no need to abuse anyone, unless you are a paid troll to do that only. I hope you will behave well in debate. No one want wars, or anger. But e ermine, including you, have rights to put your view, but if you can show respect to others, since there are children and women also on this forum. I am sure respect us uni ersal even in your country. Please show a positive side of your country to others
Mr. Lee…you mentioned Indians are not inventive enough..let me tell you..Indians are less famous than many others for copy and paste…. So now you got the answer. I was wondering you live in US and don’t sound in favour of US. Strange…
Helen Xu , Madam, this is based on experience. The bigggest challenge for INdia is to manage China. And India was unified before China was 2000 years back. We know how to manage and play the game.
China has never supported INdia in any International forums while Indian supported CHina in entering WTO , due to which China is richer. We respect China, but have become pragmatic. For me China is not an enemy but also is not a friend. Unfortunate part is if Pakistan is used as a proxy, and it starts a war, then all the three countries will be affected. No one should think that they will not be affected…. The war does not work like this and all three countries will go back atleast 60 years. It is guaranted.
Vk Jain
Oh man, you only see threats?
That’s is fine I guess, but are you moving in the right direction so that you are placed in a safe position and no external forces can really threat/harm you?