France has made a “big deal” with Ukraine that includes billions of Euros in Ukrainian purchases of French systems and licenses to produce a number of weapons including SCALP/Storm Shadow, a long range cruise missile, Aster 30 interceptors for the SAMP/T NG air defense system (which Ukraine will purchase), and the AASM glide Bomb kit.
Ukraine will buy 16 Rafale fighter jets and (probably) four SAMP/T NG air defense systems.
The Rafale F4 fighter jet, the latest model, costs between €80 million and €100 million (approximately $87 million to $108 million USD) per copy.
The SAMP/T NG system is expensive. For a foreign nation buying a complete, all-inclusive package (including the Ground Fire 300 radar, launchers, command-and-control modules, logistics, training, and initial spare parts), a single SAMP/T NG battery costs between $700 million and $1 billion USD (€650 million to €900 million).
The fighter jets will be supplied with weapons, but which ones and how many were not spelled out.
In addition, no prices were announced for the licenses to produce the Aster 30 interceptor missiles, the SCALP Storm Shadow long range cruise missiles or the AASM glide bomb. It is likely the licensing will be based on a percentage of the commercial value of each item, although that needs clarification.
It isn’t unreasonable to think that the French expect to reap a harvest of between $4 and $8 billion or even more since France will have to supply components and spares.
There are, as they say, not a few problems.
For example, Italy is in line to procure SAMP/T NG units for Italy’s own defense needs. The Italian requirement almost certainly conflicts with the limited French manufacturing capability for SAMP/T systems. Either Italy gets them delivered by 2030, or Ukraine gets them delivered in the same time frame, but not both. Even though the manufacturing consortium, Eurosam, has agreed to increase manufacturing, nothing much is known of the time line or who will finance a production expansion.
Who will pay the bill? Certainly not the French. France will demand that the EU pick up the tab, thus enriching France at the expense of nearly everyone else in Europe. One can predict significant headwinds from European governments who will oppose underwriting the French Republic.
Indeed, the lack of finance may turn the entire “deal” into a non-starter when reality smashes into Macron’s face. The only question is how long it will take before there is political pushback on supporting France’s defense industry at the expense (more or less) of everyone else. What France will offer its EU and NATO counterparts is unknown.
Macron, of course, was looking to get one up on Trump, which is the real political basis for the France-Ukraine “deal.” Even the Trump proposal is full of potholes, the biggest one of all being that the Trump administration expected NATO to pay for the Lockheed license for Patriot interceptors. It is unlikely NATO will pay, just as NATO is not likely to underwrite the French deal.
At the end of the day the real loser, of course, is Ukraine. It will be a long time, if ever, before a factory in Ukraine is churning out major American or French weapons. The French deal starts out with a whimper, not a bang. Pity poor Emmanuel.
Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy under secretary of defense. This article originally appeared on his newsletter Weapons and Strategy. It is republished with permission.
French tanks with 5 reverse gears and 1 forward
What happened to my comment!