It would be an exaggeration to visualize the forthcoming meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Goa in the weekend as a landmark event.
Clearly, the relationship is passing through a period of stress. But a breakthrough to remove the cause of tensions seems unlikely. Things may even get worse before they get any better.
Beijing made it clear earlier this week that as regards the two issues that exercise the Indian mind, there need not be any expectations of a shift in its stance – Sino-Pakistan relationship and India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
The Indians regard the US$46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as holding the potential to boost Pakistan’s comprehensive national power and bring about a paradigm shift both in the strategic balance vis-à-vis India as well as in China’s strategic footprints in the region.
The NSG membership question becomes essentially a sub-plot here insofar as China has taken a ‘principled position’ that there cannot be any discrimination between India and Pakistan – both being non-NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) countries – as potentially new members in the grouping.
Equally, the crux of the matter is that China is blocking another Indian demand to get UN sanctions imposed on the leader of the Pakistan-based group Jaish-e-Mohammed, Masood Azhar as terrorist because such a move would go against Pakistan’s core interests.
If not for these two irritants specifically, something else could have cropped up as an irritant – such as, for instance, the fact that CPEC will run through parts of Kashmir that are under Pakistan’s control but India claims as its territory.
In essence, what India resents is, firstly, that China-Pakistan ties are phenomenally transforming as a strategic alliance, which weakens India’s capacity to sort out Pakistan on its own terms, and, secondly, that China’s presence is expanding in the region, which India regards as its backyard.
The probability of China giving into the Indian wish list is virtually nil, given the high importance Beijing attaches to the relations with Pakistan.
The profound backdrop in which the Sino-Pakistan relationship is transforming needs to be noted here – the US pivot to Asia, One Belt One Road, China’s growing profile as global power, Xinjiang’s security, development, etc.
Of course, Pakistan is intrinsically important as a partner too, because of its unique geographic location, its centrality to the Afghan situation, its big domestic market (190 million) and its importance as a leading Islamic country and a major military and nuclear power.
Above all, Pakistan, as Xi once underscored poignantly, also happens to be China’s only real ally in a tough neighborhood.
China, therefore, professes preference for multi-faceted engagement with both Pakistan and India as well as stresses India-Pakistan amity. However, things are not as benign as they might seem.
The fact of the matter is that both India and China are playing the long game.
China ignores the Modi government’s push to ‘clarify’ the Line of Actual Control (LoAC), which from the Indian viewpoint keeps the disputed border in a state of animated suspension.
In reaction to that, Delhi is beefing up military presence on the disputed border. In July, 100 Russian-made T-72 were deployed in the western Ladakh sector of the disputed border.
This is the third regiment placed in Ladakh since 2014. India now plans to expedite construction of 40 ‘strategic roads’ along the border by 2020. It is also negotiating a deal with the United States to purchase M777A2 lightweight howitzers that would be used along the border.
In August, when Delhi approved the deployment of a missile regiment on the eastern border in the disputed Arunachal Pradesh with 100 BrahMos supersonic missiles, a nadir was reached.
China’s PLA daily warned explicitly that Delhi’s decision is “bound to increase the competition and antagonism in the China-India relations and will have a negative impact on the stability of the region.”
A Russian commentary noted in end-August that “military build-ups have increased along the Sino-Indian border in recent weeks.” There have been over 200 troop incursions recorded across the disputed border this year.
Again, India has ‘hit back’ its own way, inserting its Navy into the troubled waters of the South China Sea and contributing to the ‘capacity-building’ of the armed forces of Vietnam.
Indeed, the locus has noticeably shifted to competition away from cooperation in the overall matrix of India-China relationship.
The Modi government apprehends that the One Belt One Road would steadily build up the economies of the countries of the region surrounding India, which in time will augment their capacity to maintain strategic autonomy, while also paving the way for China’s pre-eminence as the region’s main driver of growth.
On the other hand, Modi government’s ‘tilt’ toward the US’ rebalance in Asia and the US’ emergence as India’s number one supplier of arms and military technology – all under the canopy of what the Global Times recently called India’s ‘soaring nationalism’ – plus other negative messages such an ill-conceived move to expel three Xinhua journalists assigned to India have contributed to a hardening of the overall Chinese attitude.
In an unusually blunt criticism, Chinese pundits questioned the basis of the Indian allegation that Pakistan was behind the attack on the military camp in Uri last month. They called Delhi’s subsequent move to fence the border with Pakistan as “irrational” and reflecting “Cold War mentality”.
Fundamentally, Beijing will wait and watch for the realignments unfolding in the regional milieu.
The thaw in Pakistan-Russia relations has only begun. The Middle East is in chaos. The US’s regional strategies under a new president remain to be seen. China uses the interim to consolidate in the South China Sea.
When Xi sits down with Modi in Goa, he would be in a contemplative mood – but, with thoughts trained on the upcoming meeting with the Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in Beijing next week.
On the other hand, the Hindu nationalists, who are the Modi government’s core constituency, are clamoring for confrontation with Pakistan. Powerful sections of the ruling elite are hoisting the maximalist demand that the entire undivided Kashmir belongs to India.
In immediate terms, they may find it expedient to ratchet up tensions with Pakistan and exploit any resultant Hindu-Muslim polarization to the ruling party’s advantage in electoral politics.
No doubt, for them, Modi government’s strategic dialogue with China is not a priority as of now. They are confident that time works to India’s advantage and it is best to deal with China from a position of strength.
They spurn Chinese overtures for a mutually beneficial economic partnership, pending the resolution of differences and disputes. Some even take to twittering #BoycottChina, asking Indians to shun Chinese products.
The danger inherent in this jingoistic national mood is that it harks back to fantasies that had once fed into India’s bombastic ‘forward policy’ toward China in the late fifties – which, of course, got tragically dissipated in the 1962 conflict.
Bobby Salahuddin what have you been smoking? Pakistan is like a litlle street urchin which begs from china, US and also India. These are countries with lot of monies unlike Pakistan.
Jo Snow Hi Jo, Yes i did read the history of China and yes i was a great and is a great civilization. After the century of humiliation, China has now come out strong and as a major power. All that is correct. But they did invade India in 1962 (yes, our idiotic political despensation provoked the CPC & that too without taking military into confindence or proper preparation) and again Vietnam in 1979 and they are claiming entire SCS. If this is not assertive, aggresive, on the face of it, take it or leave it, zero sum approach that CPC is indulging in then i do not know what is. Yes the Salami Slice approach is working so far. How long will this work, only time will tell. interesting times ahead. China if it has true intentions,then it should get the geo politics and geo economics right. Terror hurts every one. So it should tell this to pakistan. NSG membership blockade should be withdrawn and it should as requested by Indian Govt., finally demarcate the LAC. Settle things and move one. Suspended animationated situation at border and towing the line of our arch enemy will always give apprehensions and mistrust. It is a two way street. And hope they unerstand this. Stop bracketing India with Pakistan. Its as simple as that.
Srinivasa Nanduri Wow, You Indian really believe your MSM and governemnt garbage about China is ought to get you…
Have you ever had chance to study Chinese histroy and see when was last time China invaded any one? Or do you guys ever have any independent critical thinking skil?
Rachel Medders Trust Chinese governement? who can trust the biggest liers in the world? not the lier has got power and musceles. Hes bullying, has got a thief(PAK) to back him. One old lion who is loosing importance is the world wants to fight still in power King of world suprimacy and guess what.. All are uniting!!!
Where does India stand?? not with terrorist and thiefs.
India is still a non aligned country. Read Putins recent statement on India.
Donald Richards So there you have it. Take tax dollar out of poor people’s mouth to buy weapons so you can start some war.
HI, The reason Chinese are investing in Gwadar is different. I guess CPEC is a smoke screen. The real work is happening in Ormara, Balochistan for a new naval base to house the Type 032 Qing-class (S20 Class) that Pakistan will get from China. This Subs are special because they will have VLS to launch cruise / BSM missiles, just like Israeli Dolphins. This is to dent Indian Naval progress and box India in the South Asian Quagmire. The new great game has truly begun and China is ticking all the boxes in order to preempt any China specific negative actvities. What Chinese want is to stop rise of any rival power in Asia. Now how will India address this and unshakle from this only time will tell. However, India cannot be a real threat to China just as yet. It will need another decade at least for it to get to its economy right.
Bipin Shah: with all due respect. Thats what you were made to believe. Your loss. India is visibly shaken by CPEC and events in Kashmir.
You think Modi government has "spurned" opportunities of mutually beneficial economic partnership? On the contrary, the new government has gone much ahead and further in growing an economic partnership with China than previous governments. See for example: liberalised visa schemes for Chinese, wooing Chinese investments (somewhat successfully in parts but work-in-progress), detailed trade and commerce discussions including opening up of each others’ markets. Dispite the so called "boycott" called by some people in India’s society, the trade between the two countries is reaching record levels, and is only growing.
Also I disagree that India’s actions are motivated by economic growth of other countries in the region led by the OROB. In fact it is rather mischievous to say so. In fact India’s apprehensions are motivated by the fear of a closed OROB network, which is used for military purposes alongside economic ones in the neighbourhood countries of India. India would not have a problem with an open access infrastructure development in the region, which would obviously have positive externalities for all, including herself. But I would question why China is investing so much into the Pakistani CPEC when it is not expected to generate financial returns, if not for military benefits? It is stupid to expect India to not be apprehensive about such a military partnership, one that you aluded to yourself in the article elsewhere.
Finally, as the two heads of the government agreed upon last month – the relationship between India and China can only grow if both are mindful of each other’s strategic areas. Letting India become part of the NSG does not hurt China’s core strategic interests but yet it has chosen to block India’s access from it. Similarly partnering with Pakistan for the sake of blocking India’s growth would be unacceptable to the latter. Similarly, India does not need to become active in the South China Sea anymore than it is warranted from its intrinsic strategic interests. But for that both the countries need to move ahead.
He sold himself out and makes monies from Chinese. That is why.
Ken Nguyen Right your own rebuttal to this discarded diplomat who is shaming us. We support vietnames national right to claim you water. China is a bully and throwing monies around. Stop buying from chinese. Put them where they belong. They are supporter of terror and will not hesistate to hurt Vietnam, a pround nation, who stood its ground against all imperalist forces. Other countries like Phillipine and Thailand have lot to learn from Vietnam.
Bhadrakumar: After serving as an Ex-diplomat, you are spewing venom against your own country. We know that every ounce of your body is made up of communism and you hate your own nationality by taking monies from foreign governments. Have you considered relocating somewhere else? you show no love for your country. If you were chinese, you will be in prison for sure as China do not like anything negative about their country. Your motherland give you the freedom fo speech. It is time you come to the sense and advocate the positions of national interest for your country. Chinese are eating your country’s lunch since you were serving under Nehru Dynasty. Did your effort bring any results ? No. Now, you pontificate advise and what is right and wrong for your country. As a failed diplomat should be ashamed of yourself.
Respected sir.People in Pakistan n India will never understand your intellect and brilliance.
Hi Sir, pls take citizenship of China and say goodbye and Good riddance to India. Any ways you sound like a chinese analyst. If china is propping the terror state of Pakistan, you want India to fall on the feet of China and take its economic doleouts. Yes its a long game and it is not for weak hearted nay sayers. With Intellectauls like you we do not need enemies from outside to hurt us. God save us all from this intellectual sellout.
9/11 gave india opportunity to play the US narrative and brand kashmir Freedom struggle as Terrorrism. Pakistan being party to the unresolved issue was labelled as supporting the Freedom Struggle (terrorism)… Eversince, India has doled billions in branding Pakistan a terrorist state. Using Afgahnistan as a launchpad to organize and manage anti Pakistan terrorists, in which 60000 civilians and 3000 soldiers have been martyred. But CPEC has come as a lighting bolt from the sky to India’s aspirations and has reversed all the plans. This has made india openly come out and announce its interference in balochistan, and Pakistan Administered kashmir. The faster CPEC moves towards its destination the more desperate india will become.
It works to India’s advantage as chinese communists don’t allow ramzan,they ban pakistani muslim from entering their country,then their society snubs people by saying don’t travel into areas where there are arabs,blacks & pakistani people….you thought what people are dumb….they will ban all chinese product in India & south asia….you just need to whip up hatred for the chinese
When did India get so weak. Last time I checked, India was the stronger one of the two at 1962. That may explain why it started a war with China.
Bhadrakumar as always takes the side of the Jihadis & Communists. No wonder India remained weak all these decades with such fifth columnists in the IFS & IAS.
It’s not the trivialities of Sino-India’s weakness or their strengths. The larger and the most existential threat to Asia’s growth and its independence from centries old Ango-American mischieves that are causing the 3rd. world war threat more likely than not. It would be natural and long lasting of a relationship between China-India_Pakistan-Irn-Afghanistan-Bangladesh-Sri Lanka-Russia and the Arab world than aligning with the world’s worse trouble maker and trouble seekers. India’s blunder to gravitate towards world’s worse violaters of international laws, the USA, UK, France, Germany, and rest of the Anglo-Saxon-Anglo-American cabal.
Good writing Bhadra… One thing is India and China are too big and too old and too related in lasted 2500 years or more that we have enough wisdom and werewithal to work through. India need to grow big economical and India needs all nations on earth including the large neighbour China. At the same time, India has to ensure that Pakistan doesnt use the CPEC project to create more trouble in Kashmir. It also includes taking the PoK and put the strategic karakoram highway through Indian way with China and go to Pakistan and build to India too. Also, India will never trust West though like China in 80s and 90ss build relationship for mutual economic benefit. Also, even today, Indians are in the internal grudge and thought process third class for the decision making society of Britain… Just time India grow fast and big to own destiny. Else no difference between speaking English and wearing tie in sweltering Chennai or speaking Chinese and raising CPM flag
Mr Bhadrakumar you have analysed it totally from a wrong perspective . China strong , India weak! The reality is that for the first time since 1950 , China finds itself weak. The strength of the IN at sea has stopped PLAN in its tracks! Then the recent judgement in Hague has knocked the winds out of their sails! More is coming and Xi is contemplating is the CPEC worth it with 1% return likely!! Pakistan is a bottomless sink for funds ! Many Chinese economists are questioning the rationale of CPEC! As Vietnam gets stronger at sea in SCS , the pushback is coming with Russia & India backing an old friend!!