It would be an exaggeration to visualize the forthcoming meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Goa in the weekend as a landmark event.
Clearly, the relationship is passing through a period of stress. But a breakthrough to remove the cause of tensions seems unlikely. Things may even get worse before they get any better.
Beijing made it clear earlier this week that as regards the two issues that exercise the Indian mind, there need not be any expectations of a shift in its stance – Sino-Pakistan relationship and India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
The Indians regard the US$46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as holding the potential to boost Pakistan’s comprehensive national power and bring about a paradigm shift both in the strategic balance vis-à-vis India as well as in China’s strategic footprints in the region.
The NSG membership question becomes essentially a sub-plot here insofar as China has taken a ‘principled position’ that there cannot be any discrimination between India and Pakistan – both being non-NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) countries – as potentially new members in the grouping.
Equally, the crux of the matter is that China is blocking another Indian demand to get UN sanctions imposed on the leader of the Pakistan-based group Jaish-e-Mohammed, Masood Azhar as terrorist because such a move would go against Pakistan’s core interests.
If not for these two irritants specifically, something else could have cropped up as an irritant – such as, for instance, the fact that CPEC will run through parts of Kashmir that are under Pakistan’s control but India claims as its territory.
In essence, what India resents is, firstly, that China-Pakistan ties are phenomenally transforming as a strategic alliance, which weakens India’s capacity to sort out Pakistan on its own terms, and, secondly, that China’s presence is expanding in the region, which India regards as its backyard.
The probability of China giving into the Indian wish list is virtually nil, given the high importance Beijing attaches to the relations with Pakistan.
The profound backdrop in which the Sino-Pakistan relationship is transforming needs to be noted here – the US pivot to Asia, One Belt One Road, China’s growing profile as global power, Xinjiang’s security, development, etc.
Of course, Pakistan is intrinsically important as a partner too, because of its unique geographic location, its centrality to the Afghan situation, its big domestic market (190 million) and its importance as a leading Islamic country and a major military and nuclear power.
Above all, Pakistan, as Xi once underscored poignantly, also happens to be China’s only real ally in a tough neighborhood.
China, therefore, professes preference for multi-faceted engagement with both Pakistan and India as well as stresses India-Pakistan amity. However, things are not as benign as they might seem.
The fact of the matter is that both India and China are playing the long game.
China ignores the Modi government’s push to ‘clarify’ the Line of Actual Control (LoAC), which from the Indian viewpoint keeps the disputed border in a state of animated suspension.
In reaction to that, Delhi is beefing up military presence on the disputed border. In July, 100 Russian-made T-72 were deployed in the western Ladakh sector of the disputed border.
This is the third regiment placed in Ladakh since 2014. India now plans to expedite construction of 40 ‘strategic roads’ along the border by 2020. It is also negotiating a deal with the United States to purchase M777A2 lightweight howitzers that would be used along the border.
In August, when Delhi approved the deployment of a missile regiment on the eastern border in the disputed Arunachal Pradesh with 100 BrahMos supersonic missiles, a nadir was reached.
China’s PLA daily warned explicitly that Delhi’s decision is “bound to increase the competition and antagonism in the China-India relations and will have a negative impact on the stability of the region.”
A Russian commentary noted in end-August that “military build-ups have increased along the Sino-Indian border in recent weeks.” There have been over 200 troop incursions recorded across the disputed border this year.
Again, India has ‘hit back’ its own way, inserting its Navy into the troubled waters of the South China Sea and contributing to the ‘capacity-building’ of the armed forces of Vietnam.
Indeed, the locus has noticeably shifted to competition away from cooperation in the overall matrix of India-China relationship.
The Modi government apprehends that the One Belt One Road would steadily build up the economies of the countries of the region surrounding India, which in time will augment their capacity to maintain strategic autonomy, while also paving the way for China’s pre-eminence as the region’s main driver of growth.
On the other hand, Modi government’s ‘tilt’ toward the US’ rebalance in Asia and the US’ emergence as India’s number one supplier of arms and military technology – all under the canopy of what the Global Times recently called India’s ‘soaring nationalism’ – plus other negative messages such an ill-conceived move to expel three Xinhua journalists assigned to India have contributed to a hardening of the overall Chinese attitude.
In an unusually blunt criticism, Chinese pundits questioned the basis of the Indian allegation that Pakistan was behind the attack on the military camp in Uri last month. They called Delhi’s subsequent move to fence the border with Pakistan as “irrational” and reflecting “Cold War mentality”.
Fundamentally, Beijing will wait and watch for the realignments unfolding in the regional milieu.
The thaw in Pakistan-Russia relations has only begun. The Middle East is in chaos. The US’s regional strategies under a new president remain to be seen. China uses the interim to consolidate in the South China Sea.
When Xi sits down with Modi in Goa, he would be in a contemplative mood – but, with thoughts trained on the upcoming meeting with the Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in Beijing next week.
On the other hand, the Hindu nationalists, who are the Modi government’s core constituency, are clamoring for confrontation with Pakistan. Powerful sections of the ruling elite are hoisting the maximalist demand that the entire undivided Kashmir belongs to India.
In immediate terms, they may find it expedient to ratchet up tensions with Pakistan and exploit any resultant Hindu-Muslim polarization to the ruling party’s advantage in electoral politics.
No doubt, for them, Modi government’s strategic dialogue with China is not a priority as of now. They are confident that time works to India’s advantage and it is best to deal with China from a position of strength.
They spurn Chinese overtures for a mutually beneficial economic partnership, pending the resolution of differences and disputes. Some even take to twittering #BoycottChina, asking Indians to shun Chinese products.
The danger inherent in this jingoistic national mood is that it harks back to fantasies that had once fed into India’s bombastic ‘forward policy’ toward China in the late fifties – which, of course, got tragically dissipated in the 1962 conflict.
Bobby Salahuddin Later he apologised , read Kissinger news article. He apologised to whole of India.
Bobby Salahuddin Sirji keep your CPEC in your pocket, it will even take years for Chinese to even use this one. Pakistan is already in tatters and no one is taking you seriously after Osama bin Laden and now Hafiz Syed, Lakhwi and Salahuddin
India need to also learn from Chinese activities and expedite Chahbahar and also in Vietnam and others in Chinese neighborhood. If China can put ties in backburner so then India can also. We need to put anti dumping measures on Chinese low priced goods and clear message to China that unfriendly action is not tolerated
let me very clear you Mr. Bhadrakumar.. china is not in possition to puts india ties on the backburner.. china need more then india need chines. India prospective is more better then china.. huge market china can not find anywhere in the world if china has to rise .. china know it very well if they have to sustain in growth then they can not ignore india ..
I am informed by intelligence sources that the ‘terrorist’ attack at Uri was no such thing. It was merely the accidental bursting of of a cooking gas cylinder, which caused a huge in the tents in which 18 persons of the army newly arrived from Bihar who were sleeping and and were totally unprepared! Impossible to verify!
IN the current crisis with pakistan, one can dismiss India’s dire threats, outlandish propaganda, childish antics and illusory ‘surgical strikes’, in Shakespeare’s words, as “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing”.
The clamour from India is certainly replete with idiocy and delusional nonsense. It does not sit well with indian image to pose as aggressive nation whereas it is seen by the rest of the world as desperately poor with hungry destitute population who barely get a meal a day.
For some reason, India has an exception reasoning skill. It does not look at China does not instigate hostile relations with her neighbors through history, but think it can some how get attention from China by been hostile. Yes, you can buy big guns, and start another war, but it is not China’s teaching to bow to demand of hostile out siders. If you have any doubts, look at how China healing with US right now.
I can not belive the kind of delusional sh&t come out of Hindu fundamentalist. You already tried it once when you were stronger in 1962, what make you think you will get away with it next time?
If only India had the culture and geograph connection with China as Vietnam.
China understands the language of economics and the language of military strength, and is contemptuous of those it regards quietly as subalterns, when they seek mutuality and reciprocity.
Look at China-Vietnam friction as a classic example of Chinese inability to reign in its obsession with power.
For India, the critical next step, after having shored up our defenses with Agni and ABM assets at volatile borders, is to go ahead confidently with a new, well orchestrated swadeshi campaign that convinces China that it cannot pursue its geo-political interests without endangering the market for its goods.
This writer is a Marxist. China has enough enemies the world over, that includes its closest neighbours, apart from Taiwan and a part of its own territory in Hongkong. So India wont be a walkover, specially with a nationalist Govt led by Modi, who is in the opposite pole of spineless Manmohan Singh or Nehru. India must continue to pry Balochistan loose from Pakistan through which the CPEC infrastructure runs ending at the Gwadar Port, in order to make China go slow on it with second thoughts and also encourage POK, Gilgit and Baltistan to revolt against Pakistan and the illegal occupation of China. India must keep ratcheting up its own interests vis-a-vis China without becoming its satellite like Pakistan as suggested in this article. China is a dictatorship with an open agenda of expansionism which India must explain to all of China’s neighbours including Nepal which keeps flirting with China in order to blackmail India and keep it under stress. But India is a vibrant democracy where the opposition for most of the time behaves more strident than its external enemies which will ensure that India would be better choice to be aligned with than a hegemonistic and unpredictable China which has no opposition within its territory.
All balls! This writer is a Marxist. China has enough enemies the world over, that includes its closest neighbours, apart from Taiwan and a part of its own territory in Hongkong. So India wont be a walkover, specially with a nationalist Govt led by Modi, who is in the opposite pole of spineless Manmohan Singh or Nehru. India must continue to pry Balochistan loose from Pakistan through which the CPEC infrastructure runs ending at the Gwadar Port, in order to make China go slow on it with second thoughts and also encourage POK, Gilgit and Baltistan to revolt against Pakistan and the illegal occupation of China. India must keep ratcheting up its own interests vis-a-vis China without becoming its satellite like Pakistan as suggested in this article. China is a dictatorship with an open agenda of expansionism which India must explain to all of China’s neighbours including Nepal which keeps flirting with China in order to blackmail India and keep it under stress. But India is a vibrant democracy where the opposition for most of the time behaves more strident than its external enemies which will ensure that India would be better choice to be aligned with than a hegemonistic and unpredictable China which has no opposition within its territory.
Srinivasa Nanduri I admit, I can not counter your "argument". No one ever can counter Hindu Fundamentalist delusional arguments. You are in league of your own, who am I bust your bubble?!
Jo Snow when opponent runs out of argument points then he succumbs to banalities and name calling. At least I have done discussion based on points, agreed where you are right and put my points forward. Nice talking to you. God bless.
Truth is not always sweet. BK does not write to make us "feel good."
Srinivasa Nanduri LOL. It is amusing to read from Hindu fundamentalists. Please do go on what you are doing.
HI,
China has Billions of dollars in cash reserves, way more than India. I dont think economy is the reason for Gwadar. Its that strategic location that is of interest. Also, China / Pakistan are invited to join the port development by Iran. India already is using Bandar Abbas Port for business purposes to Aghanistan. And our investment so far is mere 500 million. Compare that to China and we are no where near. India is not picking a fight with China but taking a approach that is contrary to Chinese. Now how divergent will both countries become or will they converge at some point can be only answered in the next few years.
But yes Pakistan is a mess and will remain so for at least next 10 years as said by President Obama some time back. They have circular debt crisis, inadequate security situation, sort of international isolation (if you leave aside China), lessened remittances and no more free aid (blackmail money) from West. Not to add in the Jehadi Tanzeems baying for Indian blood complicating its internal security way more. China will have a big issue in hand if all this will fall on its lap to address.
As of now china is only giving loans that to at quite high rates to pakistan. And the dirty coal plants that china is getting rid of for cleaner energies are moving to pakistan and will produce electricity at a very high cost. Costs that NEPRA pakistans energy body is fighting tooth and nail. As it is Pakistanis are paying 35% indirect taxes in their monthly electricty bills. Add another percent for CPEC and ordinary Pakistani is a very unhappy lot right now.
So all in all its not good for Pakistan and it is very good for China. And there is a tug of war diplomatically speaking going on between Pakistan / China and INDIA.
Jo Snow Fan up conflicts in the neighborhood. Really. So India should bow down to China and Pakistan to get into your good graces? Territorial Integrity, Sovernity and Security cannot be sacrificed so that some body will say good things about you. If some country is trying to downgrade you, you will have to fight back no matter what. And Pakistan has terror sanctuaries, and China by ignoring that, This is encouraging a terror sponsoring state to use terror a state policy. Your points look like a pot calling kettle black.
Regarding the way Kashmir issue, Killing a terrorist is not wrong. But how the aftermath was handled in the last 3 months, yes it was wrong and establishment totally failed to gauge the situation. But its not like ariel bombardments done in FATA, are mass killings done in baluchistan or karachi, in the name of fighting terror or filling ethnic HAN in TIBET and Xingxiang – East Turkistan. We are not doing demographic changes or stopping the muslims from practiciing their religion. We have the worlds thrid largest muslim demography for god sakes. Remember how RAMADAN is celebrated in Xingxiang. In this day and age, every nation has its problems. One should look into and at least accept there is a problem. Luckily we do. And since we know the problem, we have optimism to address it. Regarding the current spat of events involving Pakistan / China and India, will it be a Security based reaction or Diplomatic based reaction depends on the adversary and their deeds. Now if China really wants long term good relations with India, then it need to prioritize the scenarios in hand and understand why relations have tensed up, instead of being belligerent and you are still poor so we will dictate and you listen attitude.
The CPEC is a White Elephant. China is welcome to sink its billions into building a road in Pakistan. Doing so, it will acquire a stake in ensuring that Pakistan remains somewhat rational which is good for India. Also, for a change, let Pakistan be the willing maid for one other power than the USA. Let us see how China makes Pakistan sweep the floor with its hair in return for such favours as safeguarding terrorists from India sponsored UN sanctions.
Once India develops Chabahar port in Iran, the north south corridor will be a more viable and operable connectivity for South Asia with Europe through the middle east and central asia. That will be another story.
Srinivasa Nanduri Of caurse you will, especially after you stir up more unrest and wars in the region by blinding yourth with shot guns, and fan up conflict right at your neighborhood. A very unique foreign policy for addressing "poverty problem".
Srinivasa Nanduri LOL. "After the century of humiliation", lets say it is something China really disturbed by it, that does not mean they are going to make her own life miserable by stir up own neighorhood so they can take money out of poor people’s mouth to buy weapons. It may be a Indian practice, but not Chinese.
By the way, India started 1962 war. Your butt got kicked, badly.
I do not really think Vietname dig India.
Last time I checked it was India exporting terror in Pakistan, Afganistan and China. Get a grip with your government. It is not really smart, and brain washing you into more misery.