It would be an exaggeration to visualize the forthcoming meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Goa in the weekend as a landmark event.
Clearly, the relationship is passing through a period of stress. But a breakthrough to remove the cause of tensions seems unlikely. Things may even get worse before they get any better.
Beijing made it clear earlier this week that as regards the two issues that exercise the Indian mind, there need not be any expectations of a shift in its stance – Sino-Pakistan relationship and India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
The Indians regard the US$46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as holding the potential to boost Pakistan’s comprehensive national power and bring about a paradigm shift both in the strategic balance vis-à-vis India as well as in China’s strategic footprints in the region.
The NSG membership question becomes essentially a sub-plot here insofar as China has taken a ‘principled position’ that there cannot be any discrimination between India and Pakistan – both being non-NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) countries – as potentially new members in the grouping.
Equally, the crux of the matter is that China is blocking another Indian demand to get UN sanctions imposed on the leader of the Pakistan-based group Jaish-e-Mohammed, Masood Azhar as terrorist because such a move would go against Pakistan’s core interests.
If not for these two irritants specifically, something else could have cropped up as an irritant – such as, for instance, the fact that CPEC will run through parts of Kashmir that are under Pakistan’s control but India claims as its territory.
In essence, what India resents is, firstly, that China-Pakistan ties are phenomenally transforming as a strategic alliance, which weakens India’s capacity to sort out Pakistan on its own terms, and, secondly, that China’s presence is expanding in the region, which India regards as its backyard.
The probability of China giving into the Indian wish list is virtually nil, given the high importance Beijing attaches to the relations with Pakistan.
The profound backdrop in which the Sino-Pakistan relationship is transforming needs to be noted here – the US pivot to Asia, One Belt One Road, China’s growing profile as global power, Xinjiang’s security, development, etc.
Of course, Pakistan is intrinsically important as a partner too, because of its unique geographic location, its centrality to the Afghan situation, its big domestic market (190 million) and its importance as a leading Islamic country and a major military and nuclear power.
Above all, Pakistan, as Xi once underscored poignantly, also happens to be China’s only real ally in a tough neighborhood.
China, therefore, professes preference for multi-faceted engagement with both Pakistan and India as well as stresses India-Pakistan amity. However, things are not as benign as they might seem.
The fact of the matter is that both India and China are playing the long game.
China ignores the Modi government’s push to ‘clarify’ the Line of Actual Control (LoAC), which from the Indian viewpoint keeps the disputed border in a state of animated suspension.
In reaction to that, Delhi is beefing up military presence on the disputed border. In July, 100 Russian-made T-72 were deployed in the western Ladakh sector of the disputed border.
This is the third regiment placed in Ladakh since 2014. India now plans to expedite construction of 40 ‘strategic roads’ along the border by 2020. It is also negotiating a deal with the United States to purchase M777A2 lightweight howitzers that would be used along the border.
In August, when Delhi approved the deployment of a missile regiment on the eastern border in the disputed Arunachal Pradesh with 100 BrahMos supersonic missiles, a nadir was reached.
China’s PLA daily warned explicitly that Delhi’s decision is “bound to increase the competition and antagonism in the China-India relations and will have a negative impact on the stability of the region.”
A Russian commentary noted in end-August that “military build-ups have increased along the Sino-Indian border in recent weeks.” There have been over 200 troop incursions recorded across the disputed border this year.
Again, India has ‘hit back’ its own way, inserting its Navy into the troubled waters of the South China Sea and contributing to the ‘capacity-building’ of the armed forces of Vietnam.
Indeed, the locus has noticeably shifted to competition away from cooperation in the overall matrix of India-China relationship.
The Modi government apprehends that the One Belt One Road would steadily build up the economies of the countries of the region surrounding India, which in time will augment their capacity to maintain strategic autonomy, while also paving the way for China’s pre-eminence as the region’s main driver of growth.
On the other hand, Modi government’s ‘tilt’ toward the US’ rebalance in Asia and the US’ emergence as India’s number one supplier of arms and military technology – all under the canopy of what the Global Times recently called India’s ‘soaring nationalism’ – plus other negative messages such an ill-conceived move to expel three Xinhua journalists assigned to India have contributed to a hardening of the overall Chinese attitude.
In an unusually blunt criticism, Chinese pundits questioned the basis of the Indian allegation that Pakistan was behind the attack on the military camp in Uri last month. They called Delhi’s subsequent move to fence the border with Pakistan as “irrational” and reflecting “Cold War mentality”.
Fundamentally, Beijing will wait and watch for the realignments unfolding in the regional milieu.
The thaw in Pakistan-Russia relations has only begun. The Middle East is in chaos. The US’s regional strategies under a new president remain to be seen. China uses the interim to consolidate in the South China Sea.
When Xi sits down with Modi in Goa, he would be in a contemplative mood – but, with thoughts trained on the upcoming meeting with the Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in Beijing next week.
On the other hand, the Hindu nationalists, who are the Modi government’s core constituency, are clamoring for confrontation with Pakistan. Powerful sections of the ruling elite are hoisting the maximalist demand that the entire undivided Kashmir belongs to India.
In immediate terms, they may find it expedient to ratchet up tensions with Pakistan and exploit any resultant Hindu-Muslim polarization to the ruling party’s advantage in electoral politics.
No doubt, for them, Modi government’s strategic dialogue with China is not a priority as of now. They are confident that time works to India’s advantage and it is best to deal with China from a position of strength.
They spurn Chinese overtures for a mutually beneficial economic partnership, pending the resolution of differences and disputes. Some even take to twittering #BoycottChina, asking Indians to shun Chinese products.
The danger inherent in this jingoistic national mood is that it harks back to fantasies that had once fed into India’s bombastic ‘forward policy’ toward China in the late fifties – which, of course, got tragically dissipated in the 1962 conflict.
Mr Bhadrakumar you have analysed it totally from a wrong perspective . China strong , India weak! The reality is that for the first time since 1950 , China finds itself weak. The strength of the IN at sea has stopped PLAN in its tracks! Then the recent judgement in Hague has knocked the winds out of their sails! More is coming and Xi is contemplating is the CPEC worth it with 1% return likely!! Pakistan is a bottomless sink for funds ! Many Chinese economists are questioning the rationale of CPEC! As Vietnam gets stronger at sea in SCS , the pushback is coming with Russia & India backing an old friend!!
Good writing Bhadra… One thing is India and China are too big and too old and too related in lasted 2500 years or more that we have enough wisdom and werewithal to work through. India need to grow big economical and India needs all nations on earth including the large neighbour China. At the same time, India has to ensure that Pakistan doesnt use the CPEC project to create more trouble in Kashmir. It also includes taking the PoK and put the strategic karakoram highway through Indian way with China and go to Pakistan and build to India too. Also, India will never trust West though like China in 80s and 90ss build relationship for mutual economic benefit. Also, even today, Indians are in the internal grudge and thought process third class for the decision making society of Britain… Just time India grow fast and big to own destiny. Else no difference between speaking English and wearing tie in sweltering Chennai or speaking Chinese and raising CPM flag
It’s not the trivialities of Sino-India’s weakness or their strengths. The larger and the most existential threat to Asia’s growth and its independence from centries old Ango-American mischieves that are causing the 3rd. world war threat more likely than not. It would be natural and long lasting of a relationship between China-India_Pakistan-Irn-Afghanistan-Bangladesh-Sri Lanka-Russia and the Arab world than aligning with the world’s worse trouble maker and trouble seekers. India’s blunder to gravitate towards world’s worse violaters of international laws, the USA, UK, France, Germany, and rest of the Anglo-Saxon-Anglo-American cabal.
Bhadrakumar as always takes the side of the Jihadis & Communists. No wonder India remained weak all these decades with such fifth columnists in the IFS & IAS.
When did India get so weak. Last time I checked, India was the stronger one of the two at 1962. That may explain why it started a war with China.
It works to India’s advantage as chinese communists don’t allow ramzan,they ban pakistani muslim from entering their country,then their society snubs people by saying don’t travel into areas where there are arabs,blacks & pakistani people….you thought what people are dumb….they will ban all chinese product in India & south asia….you just need to whip up hatred for the chinese
9/11 gave india opportunity to play the US narrative and brand kashmir Freedom struggle as Terrorrism. Pakistan being party to the unresolved issue was labelled as supporting the Freedom Struggle (terrorism)… Eversince, India has doled billions in branding Pakistan a terrorist state. Using Afgahnistan as a launchpad to organize and manage anti Pakistan terrorists, in which 60000 civilians and 3000 soldiers have been martyred. But CPEC has come as a lighting bolt from the sky to India’s aspirations and has reversed all the plans. This has made india openly come out and announce its interference in balochistan, and Pakistan Administered kashmir. The faster CPEC moves towards its destination the more desperate india will become.
Hi Sir, pls take citizenship of China and say goodbye and Good riddance to India. Any ways you sound like a chinese analyst. If china is propping the terror state of Pakistan, you want India to fall on the feet of China and take its economic doleouts. Yes its a long game and it is not for weak hearted nay sayers. With Intellectauls like you we do not need enemies from outside to hurt us. God save us all from this intellectual sellout.
Respected sir.People in Pakistan n India will never understand your intellect and brilliance.
Bhadrakumar: After serving as an Ex-diplomat, you are spewing venom against your own country. We know that every ounce of your body is made up of communism and you hate your own nationality by taking monies from foreign governments. Have you considered relocating somewhere else? you show no love for your country. If you were chinese, you will be in prison for sure as China do not like anything negative about their country. Your motherland give you the freedom fo speech. It is time you come to the sense and advocate the positions of national interest for your country. Chinese are eating your country’s lunch since you were serving under Nehru Dynasty. Did your effort bring any results ? No. Now, you pontificate advise and what is right and wrong for your country. As a failed diplomat should be ashamed of yourself.
Ken Nguyen Right your own rebuttal to this discarded diplomat who is shaming us. We support vietnames national right to claim you water. China is a bully and throwing monies around. Stop buying from chinese. Put them where they belong. They are supporter of terror and will not hesistate to hurt Vietnam, a pround nation, who stood its ground against all imperalist forces. Other countries like Phillipine and Thailand have lot to learn from Vietnam.
He sold himself out and makes monies from Chinese. That is why.
You think Modi government has "spurned" opportunities of mutually beneficial economic partnership? On the contrary, the new government has gone much ahead and further in growing an economic partnership with China than previous governments. See for example: liberalised visa schemes for Chinese, wooing Chinese investments (somewhat successfully in parts but work-in-progress), detailed trade and commerce discussions including opening up of each others’ markets. Dispite the so called "boycott" called by some people in India’s society, the trade between the two countries is reaching record levels, and is only growing.
Also I disagree that India’s actions are motivated by economic growth of other countries in the region led by the OROB. In fact it is rather mischievous to say so. In fact India’s apprehensions are motivated by the fear of a closed OROB network, which is used for military purposes alongside economic ones in the neighbourhood countries of India. India would not have a problem with an open access infrastructure development in the region, which would obviously have positive externalities for all, including herself. But I would question why China is investing so much into the Pakistani CPEC when it is not expected to generate financial returns, if not for military benefits? It is stupid to expect India to not be apprehensive about such a military partnership, one that you aluded to yourself in the article elsewhere.
Finally, as the two heads of the government agreed upon last month – the relationship between India and China can only grow if both are mindful of each other’s strategic areas. Letting India become part of the NSG does not hurt China’s core strategic interests but yet it has chosen to block India’s access from it. Similarly partnering with Pakistan for the sake of blocking India’s growth would be unacceptable to the latter. Similarly, India does not need to become active in the South China Sea anymore than it is warranted from its intrinsic strategic interests. But for that both the countries need to move ahead.
Bipin Shah: with all due respect. Thats what you were made to believe. Your loss. India is visibly shaken by CPEC and events in Kashmir.
HI, The reason Chinese are investing in Gwadar is different. I guess CPEC is a smoke screen. The real work is happening in Ormara, Balochistan for a new naval base to house the Type 032 Qing-class (S20 Class) that Pakistan will get from China. This Subs are special because they will have VLS to launch cruise / BSM missiles, just like Israeli Dolphins. This is to dent Indian Naval progress and box India in the South Asian Quagmire. The new great game has truly begun and China is ticking all the boxes in order to preempt any China specific negative actvities. What Chinese want is to stop rise of any rival power in Asia. Now how will India address this and unshakle from this only time will tell. However, India cannot be a real threat to China just as yet. It will need another decade at least for it to get to its economy right.
Donald Richards So there you have it. Take tax dollar out of poor people’s mouth to buy weapons so you can start some war.
Rachel Medders Trust Chinese governement? who can trust the biggest liers in the world? not the lier has got power and musceles. Hes bullying, has got a thief(PAK) to back him. One old lion who is loosing importance is the world wants to fight still in power King of world suprimacy and guess what.. All are uniting!!!
Where does India stand?? not with terrorist and thiefs.
India is still a non aligned country. Read Putins recent statement on India.
Srinivasa Nanduri Wow, You Indian really believe your MSM and governemnt garbage about China is ought to get you…
Have you ever had chance to study Chinese histroy and see when was last time China invaded any one? Or do you guys ever have any independent critical thinking skil?
Jo Snow Hi Jo, Yes i did read the history of China and yes i was a great and is a great civilization. After the century of humiliation, China has now come out strong and as a major power. All that is correct. But they did invade India in 1962 (yes, our idiotic political despensation provoked the CPC & that too without taking military into confindence or proper preparation) and again Vietnam in 1979 and they are claiming entire SCS. If this is not assertive, aggresive, on the face of it, take it or leave it, zero sum approach that CPC is indulging in then i do not know what is. Yes the Salami Slice approach is working so far. How long will this work, only time will tell. interesting times ahead. China if it has true intentions,then it should get the geo politics and geo economics right. Terror hurts every one. So it should tell this to pakistan. NSG membership blockade should be withdrawn and it should as requested by Indian Govt., finally demarcate the LAC. Settle things and move one. Suspended animationated situation at border and towing the line of our arch enemy will always give apprehensions and mistrust. It is a two way street. And hope they unerstand this. Stop bracketing India with Pakistan. Its as simple as that.
Bobby Salahuddin what have you been smoking? Pakistan is like a litlle street urchin which begs from china, US and also India. These are countries with lot of monies unlike Pakistan.
Srinivasa Nanduri LOL. "After the century of humiliation", lets say it is something China really disturbed by it, that does not mean they are going to make her own life miserable by stir up own neighorhood so they can take money out of poor people’s mouth to buy weapons. It may be a Indian practice, but not Chinese.
By the way, India started 1962 war. Your butt got kicked, badly.
I do not really think Vietname dig India.
Last time I checked it was India exporting terror in Pakistan, Afganistan and China. Get a grip with your government. It is not really smart, and brain washing you into more misery.
Srinivasa Nanduri Of caurse you will, especially after you stir up more unrest and wars in the region by blinding yourth with shot guns, and fan up conflict right at your neighborhood. A very unique foreign policy for addressing "poverty problem".
The CPEC is a White Elephant. China is welcome to sink its billions into building a road in Pakistan. Doing so, it will acquire a stake in ensuring that Pakistan remains somewhat rational which is good for India. Also, for a change, let Pakistan be the willing maid for one other power than the USA. Let us see how China makes Pakistan sweep the floor with its hair in return for such favours as safeguarding terrorists from India sponsored UN sanctions.
Once India develops Chabahar port in Iran, the north south corridor will be a more viable and operable connectivity for South Asia with Europe through the middle east and central asia. That will be another story.
Jo Snow Fan up conflicts in the neighborhood. Really. So India should bow down to China and Pakistan to get into your good graces? Territorial Integrity, Sovernity and Security cannot be sacrificed so that some body will say good things about you. If some country is trying to downgrade you, you will have to fight back no matter what. And Pakistan has terror sanctuaries, and China by ignoring that, This is encouraging a terror sponsoring state to use terror a state policy. Your points look like a pot calling kettle black.
Regarding the way Kashmir issue, Killing a terrorist is not wrong. But how the aftermath was handled in the last 3 months, yes it was wrong and establishment totally failed to gauge the situation. But its not like ariel bombardments done in FATA, are mass killings done in baluchistan or karachi, in the name of fighting terror or filling ethnic HAN in TIBET and Xingxiang – East Turkistan. We are not doing demographic changes or stopping the muslims from practiciing their religion. We have the worlds thrid largest muslim demography for god sakes. Remember how RAMADAN is celebrated in Xingxiang. In this day and age, every nation has its problems. One should look into and at least accept there is a problem. Luckily we do. And since we know the problem, we have optimism to address it. Regarding the current spat of events involving Pakistan / China and India, will it be a Security based reaction or Diplomatic based reaction depends on the adversary and their deeds. Now if China really wants long term good relations with India, then it need to prioritize the scenarios in hand and understand why relations have tensed up, instead of being belligerent and you are still poor so we will dictate and you listen attitude.
HI,
China has Billions of dollars in cash reserves, way more than India. I dont think economy is the reason for Gwadar. Its that strategic location that is of interest. Also, China / Pakistan are invited to join the port development by Iran. India already is using Bandar Abbas Port for business purposes to Aghanistan. And our investment so far is mere 500 million. Compare that to China and we are no where near. India is not picking a fight with China but taking a approach that is contrary to Chinese. Now how divergent will both countries become or will they converge at some point can be only answered in the next few years.
But yes Pakistan is a mess and will remain so for at least next 10 years as said by President Obama some time back. They have circular debt crisis, inadequate security situation, sort of international isolation (if you leave aside China), lessened remittances and no more free aid (blackmail money) from West. Not to add in the Jehadi Tanzeems baying for Indian blood complicating its internal security way more. China will have a big issue in hand if all this will fall on its lap to address.
As of now china is only giving loans that to at quite high rates to pakistan. And the dirty coal plants that china is getting rid of for cleaner energies are moving to pakistan and will produce electricity at a very high cost. Costs that NEPRA pakistans energy body is fighting tooth and nail. As it is Pakistanis are paying 35% indirect taxes in their monthly electricty bills. Add another percent for CPEC and ordinary Pakistani is a very unhappy lot right now.
So all in all its not good for Pakistan and it is very good for China. And there is a tug of war diplomatically speaking going on between Pakistan / China and INDIA.
Srinivasa Nanduri LOL. It is amusing to read from Hindu fundamentalists. Please do go on what you are doing.
Truth is not always sweet. BK does not write to make us "feel good."
Jo Snow when opponent runs out of argument points then he succumbs to banalities and name calling. At least I have done discussion based on points, agreed where you are right and put my points forward. Nice talking to you. God bless.
Srinivasa Nanduri I admit, I can not counter your "argument". No one ever can counter Hindu Fundamentalist delusional arguments. You are in league of your own, who am I bust your bubble?!
All balls! This writer is a Marxist. China has enough enemies the world over, that includes its closest neighbours, apart from Taiwan and a part of its own territory in Hongkong. So India wont be a walkover, specially with a nationalist Govt led by Modi, who is in the opposite pole of spineless Manmohan Singh or Nehru. India must continue to pry Balochistan loose from Pakistan through which the CPEC infrastructure runs ending at the Gwadar Port, in order to make China go slow on it with second thoughts and also encourage POK, Gilgit and Baltistan to revolt against Pakistan and the illegal occupation of China. India must keep ratcheting up its own interests vis-a-vis China without becoming its satellite like Pakistan as suggested in this article. China is a dictatorship with an open agenda of expansionism which India must explain to all of China’s neighbours including Nepal which keeps flirting with China in order to blackmail India and keep it under stress. But India is a vibrant democracy where the opposition for most of the time behaves more strident than its external enemies which will ensure that India would be better choice to be aligned with than a hegemonistic and unpredictable China which has no opposition within its territory.
This writer is a Marxist. China has enough enemies the world over, that includes its closest neighbours, apart from Taiwan and a part of its own territory in Hongkong. So India wont be a walkover, specially with a nationalist Govt led by Modi, who is in the opposite pole of spineless Manmohan Singh or Nehru. India must continue to pry Balochistan loose from Pakistan through which the CPEC infrastructure runs ending at the Gwadar Port, in order to make China go slow on it with second thoughts and also encourage POK, Gilgit and Baltistan to revolt against Pakistan and the illegal occupation of China. India must keep ratcheting up its own interests vis-a-vis China without becoming its satellite like Pakistan as suggested in this article. China is a dictatorship with an open agenda of expansionism which India must explain to all of China’s neighbours including Nepal which keeps flirting with China in order to blackmail India and keep it under stress. But India is a vibrant democracy where the opposition for most of the time behaves more strident than its external enemies which will ensure that India would be better choice to be aligned with than a hegemonistic and unpredictable China which has no opposition within its territory.
China understands the language of economics and the language of military strength, and is contemptuous of those it regards quietly as subalterns, when they seek mutuality and reciprocity.
Look at China-Vietnam friction as a classic example of Chinese inability to reign in its obsession with power.
For India, the critical next step, after having shored up our defenses with Agni and ABM assets at volatile borders, is to go ahead confidently with a new, well orchestrated swadeshi campaign that convinces China that it cannot pursue its geo-political interests without endangering the market for its goods.
If only India had the culture and geograph connection with China as Vietnam.
For some reason, India has an exception reasoning skill. It does not look at China does not instigate hostile relations with her neighbors through history, but think it can some how get attention from China by been hostile. Yes, you can buy big guns, and start another war, but it is not China’s teaching to bow to demand of hostile out siders. If you have any doubts, look at how China healing with US right now.
I can not belive the kind of delusional sh&t come out of Hindu fundamentalist. You already tried it once when you were stronger in 1962, what make you think you will get away with it next time?
IN the current crisis with pakistan, one can dismiss India’s dire threats, outlandish propaganda, childish antics and illusory ‘surgical strikes’, in Shakespeare’s words, as “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing”.
The clamour from India is certainly replete with idiocy and delusional nonsense. It does not sit well with indian image to pose as aggressive nation whereas it is seen by the rest of the world as desperately poor with hungry destitute population who barely get a meal a day.
I am informed by intelligence sources that the ‘terrorist’ attack at Uri was no such thing. It was merely the accidental bursting of of a cooking gas cylinder, which caused a huge in the tents in which 18 persons of the army newly arrived from Bihar who were sleeping and and were totally unprepared! Impossible to verify!
let me very clear you Mr. Bhadrakumar.. china is not in possition to puts india ties on the backburner.. china need more then india need chines. India prospective is more better then china.. huge market china can not find anywhere in the world if china has to rise .. china know it very well if they have to sustain in growth then they can not ignore india ..
India need to also learn from Chinese activities and expedite Chahbahar and also in Vietnam and others in Chinese neighborhood. If China can put ties in backburner so then India can also. We need to put anti dumping measures on Chinese low priced goods and clear message to China that unfriendly action is not tolerated
Bobby Salahuddin Sirji keep your CPEC in your pocket, it will even take years for Chinese to even use this one. Pakistan is already in tatters and no one is taking you seriously after Osama bin Laden and now Hafiz Syed, Lakhwi and Salahuddin
Bobby Salahuddin Later he apologised , read Kissinger news article. He apologised to whole of India.
Osama bin laden was where sir, Hafiz Syed is sending tourist in Kashmir,and you guys are so good that whole world wants to kick you in the back. Read global news and avoid getting brainwashed by false Paki news.
He is the best bet for China, when he was head of indian state he got most of the Chinese companies. So Xi Xinping is a bigger jerk, annoying india on NSG and terrorist. India should also start giving Uighurs, Tibetans and others tourist visas. and provide staple visas as china does.
Where are you reading all this ? india is far more progressed and much better rating on all front and Pakistan still stinks at bottom. Please take care of Pakistan first
Ha ha ..Pakistani propaganda, but they also stated that they have used truck to remove bodies. Military of India on record can not lie.
Rachel Medders Excreta-blooded excrement hans have to FO from the countries of Balochistan Tibet Uyghuristan and Inner-Mongolia as also ScS and pak-Occupied-Kashmir before anybody can trust them. Execrable hans are the lowest and sh!ttiest creed on the face of the planet.
10s of 1000s of times better than a sh!t-hole "country" of dirty sw!ines that live in the ecscreta of pigs, suck on American feces and waste and leftovers, and hide their MW terrorists, and go begging on all fours to Western countries like a fugly dog after a bone, and get kicked in their fugly faces and deported.