A blueprint for solving the Taiwan imbroglio

The Taiwan issue was originally an internal Chinese problem, leftover from China’s Civil War. Over the years, however, it has taken on international dimensions with the US serving as the self-governing island’s de facto protector.

With China now a great power and the world’s second-largest economy, and Washington deeming Taiwan as within the American preserve, it is clear that If China-Taiwan relations were to deteriorate, the negative impact would be considerable. It is thus in the interest of the international community to advocate an honorable conclusion to the various issues at stake regarding Taiwan.

Such a conclusion can only come from the two Chinese sides themselves. However, for this to be achieved, the parties must have the political will to come to a solution that they feel is more favorable than the status quo and all the uncertainties it carries. There is at present no evidence that the parties are negotiating or that outside forces are promoting such an endeavor.

Given this political vacuum and the real possibility of the issue spiraling out of control, there appears at present no alternative but for a private actor, be it a foundation or an academic institution, to step in with the aim of designing a practical framework that could lead to an honorable solution. It would then be up to the parties to decide if they want to proceed.

But even should they choose not to do so, they would have at their disposal a substantive, detailed blueprint rather than some abstract formulas. A minimum prerequisite for such a blueprint would be for each side to clearly define what they are not willing to compromise. As of now, neither China nor Taiwan has spelled out in detail their minimum requirements for a political solution.

One, therefore, must proceed on the basis of several educated assumptions. On this basis, and not discounting a margin of error, there is no evidence that Beijing will ever accept a compromise on the principle that there is only one Chinese state that exercises its sovereignty over the whole of China’s territory.

However, there might be some flexibility regarding the practical implementation of this principle. Assuming that there is a difference between “sovereignty” and “authority”, the latter does not necessarily need to be exercised uniformly on the whole territory of the Chinese state. 

This is implicitly  recognized by the current Constitutional instruments of the People’s Republic of China, which include provisions for the existence of “Autonomous Regions.” Such a region could conceivably be created to include what is currently known as “Taiwan” and is actually the Jinmen, Ma Xu, Pen Hu and Taiwan (JMPT) Region, including both the island province of Taiwan and other islands that are part of Fujian province.

The components of a “Comprehensive Blueprint” for a negotiated solution would be based on the following principles:

The JMPT Autonomous Region would be an autonomous region of the People’s Republic of China. Thus it would be both self-governing and part of China. In practical terms, this means that it would be subject to its own legislation as far as internal affairs are concerned.

Diplomatically, it would be represented by the PRC, but it could operate its own “Trade and Cultural Offices”, which, among other things, would be authorized to issue visas valid for the JMPT/AR. Foreign diplomatic missions in the national capital could, in turn, open consulates in the JMPT.

The JMPT/AR could have its own flag which would fly in parallel to the national flag. It would also have its own defense budget and “Self Defense Force” of up to 200,000 people and would be free to procure weapons and training as it may wish.

Population movement between the JMPT/AR and the rest of the country will be regulated at the discretion of both parties. The JMPT/AR would also have its own financial system, currency and budget as well as regimen.

This would be formalized in a law which would be the de facto constitution of the JMPT/AR and could only be modified by a concurrent 2/3 majority in both the national and the regional legislative body.

What would amount to the Constitution of the JMPT/AR would in practical terms be a modified version of the current constitution of the Republic of China with relevant amendments. Thus, Chapter 2 Article 7, which states “All citizens of the Republic of China” would be amended to read “All permanent residents of the JMPT/AR”, etc, etc.

What would remain untouched are the institutions currently in force on Taiwan, such as the Legislative Yuan, the Executive Yuan, the Control Yuan, and others. What would emerge from this construction would be one Chinese state which would include one self-governing Autonomous Region.

Such a scenario should satisfy the requirement of both Chinese parties. For Beijing, it would represent the closing chapter of the Civil War and the preservation of the principle of one Chinese state under one central government. And for Taiwan it would preserve the local regimen which has served the island so well over the past decades.

Seen in a historical perspective, the establishment in Taiwan should view such a solution as a positive outcome.  When all is said and done, there is no escaping the fact that the establishment on the island did lose the Chinese Civil War and only owes its survival to its American umbrella. How long this umbrella will endure is a moot point, but ultimately, the island is no more indispensable to America’s security than South Vietnam.

Likewise, given the asymmetry of the two Chinese sides, with one side consisting of the world’s second-largest economy with a population of 1.4 billion and the other an island with 23 million inhabitants, time is not in Taiwan’s favor. And whatever armaments that Taiwan is able to acquire, they will never come close to matching Beijing’s.

A Comprehensive Blueprint would have the advantage of presenting to the parties a concrete proposal for a negotiated solution. Granted, they might not find it to their liking, and some components would have to be negotiated, but in the current vacuum it would represent one small step forward from the uncertainties of the current status quo.