菲律賓的中期選舉不僅是對總統杜特爾特（Rodrigo Duterte）充滿爭議性的統治進行一次實質上的公投，而且可能進一步鞏固他的權利，為他指派接班人鋪平道路，甚至有望讓他獲得連任。亞洲時報（Asiatimes.com）報導
本月13日舉行的選舉，將涉及逾18,000職位。據民調顯示，這將是菲律賓近代歷史上，首次完全倒向在任總統的一次選舉。
因此，杜特爾特掌控的立法機關將會通過立法使菲律賓改變為聯邦管治體系。批評人士指出，此舉是為了掩蓋他有意延長憲法規定的每屆總統6年的任期限制。
現時有三種新憲法的建議版本，一是杜特爾特領導的執政黨民主人民力量黨提出，第二個版本則由總統委任的憲法委員會提出，另外一個版本則是由國會提出，國會受杜特爾特的盟友及前任總統阿羅約（Gloria Macapagal Arroyo）控制。
然而，所有三個版本都欠缺清晰的過渡路線圖，這為杜特爾特根據個人喜好改變新憲法提供了法律空間。批評人士擔憂一旦新憲法生效，並無明確條款限制杜特爾特再次參選總統。
菲律賓主流的民調機構脈搏亞洲指出，在正式拉票活動結束前數日進行的調查顯示，杜特爾特的政治盟友將掌控下一屆立法機關。這顯然也包括參議院，傳統上捍衛獨立和對執政機關進行制衡。此次參議院的24個席位中的一半將進行選舉。
參議院對杜特爾特血腥的掃毒行動表示懷疑，並拒絕了政府違反自由的立法，這包括建議重新設立死刑，大幅降低承擔刑事責任的最低年齡。同時，參議院破壞了杜特爾特試圖建立一個實質上的帝王總統制。
杜特爾特將有望改變菲律賓的政治體系，如果他的盟友在中期選舉後掌控了參議院，有可能侵蝕菲律賓現有的數個民主制衡機制。
根據脈搏亞洲於上月10-14日舉行的民調顯示，參議院中每14個有望獲勝的人選中有8個均為杜特爾特的核心支持者，而其他一些人士責備視為他的戰略盟友或獨立人士。這次民調的誤差範圍為上下2%。
然而，反對派的候選人在拉票中卻遭遇了缺乏資源、志願者，當地政府不願意幫他們舉辦活動等困境。同時，大多數反對票的參議院候選人此前的知名度不高。
相比之下，政府支持的候選人已有很高的知名度，而且擁有充足的資源。最新的調查顯示，杜特爾特的支持率達到79%的歷史新高，超出以往任何一位總統。
撰文：Richard Javad Heydarian
原文：Philippine midterms could extend Duterte’s rule
更多：https://www.asiatimes.com/lang/chinese/
相片：AFP / Noel Celis
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