Photo: iStock

本周二,全球市場中最耀眼的是德國DAX指數。汽車製造商和資本貨物出口商為其貢獻了1.13%的增長,包括戴姆勒(Daimler)(+ 3.44%)、拜耳(Bayer)(+ 2.45%)、寶馬(BMW)(+ 2.09%)、大陸(Continental)(+ 2.08%) 、英飛凌(Infineon)(+ 1.7%)和大眾(Volkswagen)(+ 1.65%)。亞洲時報(Asiatimes.com)報導

這似乎是來自中國的溢出效應。在中國降低增值稅後,德國汽車製造商向中國買家降價,將稅收優惠轉給消費者。ZEW經濟調查的當前狀況指數出乎意料地差於預期,但德國市場的價格行動的確可能會影響中國。

我在上月25日曾指出,購入一些歐洲工業的股票可能是低價投資中國經濟增長的方式。那些希望從對中國經濟的樂觀態度中受益的投資者,可以考慮買入在中國擁有大量業務的國際企業股票。大眾汽車在中國暢銷,其股價於周三在德國上漲了3%,而戴姆勒奔馳上漲了2.4%。其他在中國曝光率較高的歐洲股票包括漢高股份公司( Henkel AG)、空客(Airbus)、SKF瑞典、ABB、阿法拉伐(Alfa Laval)和海克斯康股份公司(Hexagon AG)。

空客最近的表現最佳,瑞典的重工業公司處於弱勢。5G股票繼續表現良好。愛立信(Ericsson),華為的競爭對手(也是合作夥伴)繼續表現良好。

另一方面,美國市場的情況五花八門。消費品的表現最差,其中零售和消費必需品位於收益分配的底端,科技、半導體和生物技術位居榜首。

所有近期的家庭支出數據均顯示,家庭支出已經回落。消費品佔GDP的70%,第一季度GDP增長的大部分空檔主要是由於家庭克制消費。人口普查局和商務部的報告均顯示12月份的數據有顯著下跌。

美國家庭行為是最難預測的經濟變量。家庭有很多理由要謹慎。以下是我過去引用的一些內容:

1)儘管美國每年新增就業崗位超過200萬,但去年新增就業崗位的100%以上來自小企業,這些企業的報酬低於大型企業,經濟安全性要低得多。調查數據顯示,美國人對6個月後仍保持就業沒有自信,而這種心理促進了預防性儲蓄。

2)頂級消費者能夠獲得抵押貸款和信用卡額度,銀行通過收取歷史上最高的信用卡利息來限制循環信貸,儘管其他利率水平處於歷史低位。

3)在少數幾類貸款中,信用評級較低的消費者可以獲得貸款,例如汽車融資,拖欠率現在是歷史上最高的。

如果說消費行業疲軟,資本投資方面的情況甚至更弱。美聯儲的美國製造業產出指數連續2個月下降。今天,美國商務部報告連續第2個月的耐用品訂單下降。資本貨物的訂單在2月份略有增長,但3個月和6個月的平均線均為負值。

資本貨物訂單下降的很大一部分原因是石油鑽探支出大幅減少。這應該是美國經濟最成功的部分,但由於運輸基礎設施不足而減弱了。

我繼續預計2019年美國經濟增長率約為1.5%,企業利潤率受到壓力。

撰文:David P. Goldman
原文:China continues to lead world markets
更多:https://www.asiatimes.com/lang/chinese/
相片:iStock

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