Photo: iStock

本周二，全球市場中最耀眼的是德國DAX指數。汽車製造商和資本貨物出口商為其貢獻了1.13％的增長，包括戴姆勒（Daimler）（+ 3.44％）、拜耳（Bayer）（+ 2.45％）、寶馬（BMW）（+ 2.09％）、大陸（Continental）（+ 2.08％） 、英飛凌（Infineon）（+ 1.7％）和大眾（Volkswagen）（+ 1.65％）。亞洲時報（Asiatimes.com）報導

這似乎是來自中國的溢出效應。在中國降低增值稅後，德國汽車製造商向中國買家降價，將稅收優惠轉給消費者。ZEW經濟調查的當前狀況指數出乎意料地差於預期，但德國市場的價格行動的確可能會影響中國。

我在上月25日曾指出，購入一些歐洲工業的股票可能是低價投資中國經濟增長的方式。那些希望從對中國經濟的樂觀態度中受益的投資者，可以考慮買入在中國擁有大量業務的國際企業股票。大眾汽車在中國暢銷，其股價於周三在德國上漲了3％，而戴姆勒奔馳上漲了2.4％。其他在中國曝光率較高的歐洲股票包括漢高股份公司（ Henkel AG）、空客（Airbus）、SKF瑞典、ABB、阿法拉伐（Alfa Laval）和海克斯康股份公司（Hexagon AG）。

空客最近的表現最佳，瑞典的重工業公司處於弱勢。5G股票繼續表現良好。愛立信（Ericsson），華為的競爭對手（也是合作夥伴）繼續表現良好。

另一方面，美國市場的情況五花八門。消費品的表現最差，其中零售和消費必需品位於收益分配的底端，科技、半導體和生物技術位居榜首。

所有近期的家庭支出數據均顯示，家庭支出已經回落。消費品佔GDP的70％，第一季度GDP增長的大部分空檔主要是由於家庭克制消費。人口普查局和商務部的報告均顯示12月份的數據有顯著下跌。

美國家庭行為是最難預測的經濟變量。家庭有很多理由要謹慎。以下是我過去引用的一些內容：

1）儘管美國每年新增就業崗位超過200萬，但去年新增就業崗位的100％以上來自小企業，這些企業的報酬低於大型企業，經濟安全性要低得多。調查數據顯示，美國人對6個月後仍保持就業沒有自信，而這種心理促進了預防性儲蓄。

2）頂級消費者能夠獲得抵押貸款和信用卡額度，銀行通過收取歷史上最高的信用卡利息來限制循環信貸，儘管其他利率水平處於歷史低位。

3）在少數幾類貸款中，信用評級較低的消費者可以獲得貸款，例如汽車融資，拖欠率現在是歷史上最高的。

如果說消費行業疲軟，資本投資方面的情況甚至更弱。美聯儲的美國製造業產出指數連續2個月下降。今天，美國商務部報告連續第2個月的耐用品訂單下降。資本貨物的訂單在2月份略有增長，但3個月和6個月的平均線均為負值。

資本貨物訂單下降的很大一部分原因是石油鑽探支出大幅減少。這應該是美國經濟最成功的部分，但由於運輸基礎設施不足而減弱了。

我繼續預計2019年美國經濟增長率約為1.5％，企業利潤率受到壓力。

撰文：David P. Goldman
原文：China continues to lead world markets
更多：https://www.asiatimes.com/lang/chinese/
相片：iStock

Join the Conversation

42 Comments

  1. You could certainly see your enthusiasm in the work you write. The world hopes for even more passionate writers like you who are not afraid to say how they believe. Always follow your heart.

  3. Hi, i read your blog from time to time and i own a similar
    one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam comments?
    If so how do you reduce it, any plugin or anything you can suggest?
    I get so much lately it’s driving me mad so any support is very much appreciated.

  4. Hi, I do think this is a great blog. I stumbledupon it 😉 I may revisit once again since I book-marked it.

    Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and
    continue to help other people.

  6. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though
    you relied on the video to make your point. You obviously know what youre talking about, why waste
    your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you could be giving us something enlightening
    to read?

  9. Its such as you read my thoughts! You appear to know so much about this,
    such as you wrote the ebook in it or something.
    I feel that you can do with a few % to drive the message home a little bit, however other than that, this is excellent blog.
    A fantastic read. I’ll certainly be back.

  11. Very good blog you have here but I was wondering if you knew of any message boards that cover the
    same topics talked about in this article? I’d
    really like to be a part of online community where I can get feed-back from other
    knowledgeable people that share the same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me know.
    Kudos!

  12. Hello there I am so glad I found your web site, I really found you by error, while I
    was searching on Digg for something else, Nonetheless I am here now and would just like to say many thanks for a fantastic post and
    a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design),
    I don’t have time to read through it all at the moment but I have book-marked it and
    also added in your RSS feeds, so when I have time I
    will be back to read more, Please do keep up the excellent work.

  14. This is really interesting, You are a very skilled
    blogger. I have joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of
    your fantastic post. Also, I have shared your website
    in my social networks!

  17. A fascinating discussion is definitely worth comment.
    There’s no doubt that that you need to write more about this topic, it may not be a taboo matter but typically folks don’t discuss these
    issues. To the next! Many thanks!!

  18. Fantastic post however , I was wanting to know if you could write
    a litte more on this topic? I’d be very grateful if you could elaborate a little bit more.
    Cheers!

  19. Pretty element of content. I just stumbled upon your website and in accession capital to say that I
    acquire in fact loved account your weblog posts.
    Any way I will be subscribing to your feeds and even I achievement you access consistently fast.

  20. Thank you, I have just been searching for information about this topic for a long time and yours is the best I have came upon till now. But, what about the conclusion? Are you sure in regards to the source?

  21. I don’t usually post any sources of income, but today will make an exemption. Have a look on that affiliate program: http://bit.ly/phallomax-affiliate-program . I registered almost 6 weeks back and I am already getting roughly $5000 every 30 days – all that by commenting on blogs with my link. Easy money that you can do basically in your bedroom. Have a look and share your earings here, so others can see it is legit program. Thx.

  22. An intriguing discussion is worth comment. I do think that you ought to publish more on this subject, it might not be
    a taboo subject but usually people do not discuss these subjects.
    To the next! Many thanks!!

  23. I don’t usually share any forms of making side money, but today will make an exemption. Check out that affiliate program: http://bit.ly/phallomax-affiliate-program . I started nearly 6 months back and I’m now smashing whooping $2000 every 30 days – everything by sharing on social media with my link. Ridiculously easy money that you can do basically in your bedroom. Get registered here and share your earings here, so others can see it is genuine program. Best Regards.

  30. Today, while I was at work, my sister stole my iphone and tested to see if it can survive a thirty foot drop,
    just so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is now destroyed and she has 83 views.
    I know this is totally off topic but I had to share it with someone!

  31. Heya i am for the first time here. I came across this board and I find It truly
    useful & it helped me out a lot. I hope to give something back and aid others like you helped me.

  34. Good post. I learn something totally new and challenging on sites
    I stumbleupon everyday. It will always be interesting to
    read through content from other authors and
    practice a little something from their web sites.

  35. I do not usually post any sources of income, however this ime will make an exemption. Check out that affiliate program: http://bit.ly/phallomax-affiliate-program . I joined around 2 months ago and I’m already getting whooping $3000 every 30 days – all of that by commenting on forums with referal link. Ridiculously easy money that can be done literally in your bedroom. Test it out and post your earning here, so other people may see this is real program. Regards.

  36. Hi there to all, the contents existing at this site are genuinely
    remarkable for people experience, well, keep up
    the nice work fellows.

  37. Hey There. I discovered your weblog the usage of msn. That is
    a really smartly written article. I will make sure to bookmark it and return to read
    more of your useful information. Thank you for the post.
    I will definitely return.

  38. Extraordinarily satisfactory article . I couldn’t agree more on the poop provided.

    What do you improvise close to my plot ? bages

Leave a comment