本周二，全球市場中最耀眼的是德國DAX指數。汽車製造商和資本貨物出口商為其貢獻了1.13％的增長，包括戴姆勒（Daimler）（+ 3.44％）、拜耳（Bayer）（+ 2.45％）、寶馬（BMW）（+ 2.09％）、大陸（Continental）（+ 2.08％） 、英飛凌（Infineon）（+ 1.7％）和大眾（Volkswagen）（+ 1.65％）。亞洲時報（Asiatimes.com）報導
這似乎是來自中國的溢出效應。在中國降低增值稅後，德國汽車製造商向中國買家降價，將稅收優惠轉給消費者。ZEW經濟調查的當前狀況指數出乎意料地差於預期，但德國市場的價格行動的確可能會影響中國。
我在上月25日曾指出，購入一些歐洲工業的股票可能是低價投資中國經濟增長的方式。那些希望從對中國經濟的樂觀態度中受益的投資者，可以考慮買入在中國擁有大量業務的國際企業股票。大眾汽車在中國暢銷，其股價於周三在德國上漲了3％，而戴姆勒奔馳上漲了2.4％。其他在中國曝光率較高的歐洲股票包括漢高股份公司（ Henkel AG）、空客（Airbus）、SKF瑞典、ABB、阿法拉伐（Alfa Laval）和海克斯康股份公司（Hexagon AG）。
空客最近的表現最佳，瑞典的重工業公司處於弱勢。5G股票繼續表現良好。愛立信（Ericsson），華為的競爭對手（也是合作夥伴）繼續表現良好。
另一方面，美國市場的情況五花八門。消費品的表現最差，其中零售和消費必需品位於收益分配的底端，科技、半導體和生物技術位居榜首。
所有近期的家庭支出數據均顯示，家庭支出已經回落。消費品佔GDP的70％，第一季度GDP增長的大部分空檔主要是由於家庭克制消費。人口普查局和商務部的報告均顯示12月份的數據有顯著下跌。
美國家庭行為是最難預測的經濟變量。家庭有很多理由要謹慎。以下是我過去引用的一些內容：
1）儘管美國每年新增就業崗位超過200萬，但去年新增就業崗位的100％以上來自小企業，這些企業的報酬低於大型企業，經濟安全性要低得多。調查數據顯示，美國人對6個月後仍保持就業沒有自信，而這種心理促進了預防性儲蓄。
2）頂級消費者能夠獲得抵押貸款和信用卡額度，銀行通過收取歷史上最高的信用卡利息來限制循環信貸，儘管其他利率水平處於歷史低位。
3）在少數幾類貸款中，信用評級較低的消費者可以獲得貸款，例如汽車融資，拖欠率現在是歷史上最高的。
如果說消費行業疲軟，資本投資方面的情況甚至更弱。美聯儲的美國製造業產出指數連續2個月下降。今天，美國商務部報告連續第2個月的耐用品訂單下降。資本貨物的訂單在2月份略有增長，但3個月和6個月的平均線均為負值。
資本貨物訂單下降的很大一部分原因是石油鑽探支出大幅減少。這應該是美國經濟最成功的部分，但由於運輸基礎設施不足而減弱了。
我繼續預計2019年美國經濟增長率約為1.5％，企業利潤率受到壓力。
撰文：David P. Goldman
原文：China continues to lead world markets
更多：https://www.asiatimes.com/lang/chinese/
相片：iStock
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