The alacrity with which China is drawing Nepal into its orbit has raised eyebrows, but the process began almost seven decades back, with Mao Zedong calling Tibet the “palm of China” and Nepal one of the fingers, initiating Maoist insurgency in Nepal to install a regime in Kathmandu not friendly to the US and India.
After more than 19,000 were killed in the Nepalese Civil War and 100,000-150,000 internally displaced, finally China managed to combine Nepal’s two main Communist parties and install the present Left Alliance government, dominated by the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), in Kathmandu. China has pulled out all stops to absorb Nepal politically and strategically: overtaking India in establishing industries by 2013; opening employment avenues through industries and projects including energy and hydropower; establishing a Confucius Institute in Kathmandu; increasing military cooperation; and improving communications linking Nepal with China.
China’s immediate gains included Nepalese curbs on Tibetans and Buddhists, making their lives difficult, with many handed over to China.
Nepali Maoists admit full support to Maoists in India. Before Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) became the prime minister of Nepal, he said, “The ultimate war will be with the Indian Army.”
China accords a head-of-state welcome to Prachanda even when out of power. Similarly, K P Sharma Oli, the present prime minister, vowed to stop Nepalis from joining the Indian Army. China has allowed Nepal to use four seaports (Shenzhen, Zhanjiang, Lianyungang and Tianjin) and three land-ports (Lanzhou, Lhasa and Shigatse) for third-country trade.
The general reaction is that Nepal will remain India-dependent, the distances between Nepal and Chinese ports being three times that of Nepal-Kolkata and one and a half times Nepal-Vizag. But road quality and train speeds are better in China.
Significantly, it is Nepal that sought access to Chinese ports to reduce dependence on India because of the prolonged blockade of the India-Nepal border during 2015-2016, causing severe shortages for months.
A Nepalese Army contingent was stopped just a day before its scheduled departure to participate in the first BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) counterterrorism exercise in India last month. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced the exercise at the BIMSTEC meet in late August but Thailand too did not participate.
Nepal cited “criticism from different quarters,” which Oli could have overridden; stopping the contingent with three officers already having reached the exercise venue was possibly a Chinese diktat meant to snub India – with the Nepalese Army participating in a two-week counterterrorism exercise in China the same month.
Nepal’s army chief, General Purna Chandra Thapa, also declined the Indian Army’s invite to attend a conclave of BIMSTEC defense heads.
China’s handling of the Uighur hasn’t evoked protests from Islamic countries such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, not even by ISIS or al-Qaeda. With the Taliban on its side, China is adept at using Islamists, which needs watching as China-Pakistan incorporates Nepal, strategically encircling India. Some 97% of the more than 100,000 Nepali Muslims live in the Terai region bordering India, with the rest in Kathmandu and western hills.
Nepal is fast becoming a “control center” of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence. Significantly, then-Pakistani prime minister Shahid Khaquan Abbasi was the first foreign dignitary to visit Nepal last March when Oli became PM.
Nepal has permitted China to drill for oil in Terai and has allowed 30 Chinese non-profits to penetrate the Nepalese social sector and the grassroots; building anti-India perceptions will be high on the Chinese agenda. It is only a matter of time before the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is deployed in the Terai region, in civilian garb or otherwise.
Nepal is deploying drones on the Indian border, obviously Chinese, that can assist infiltration, and arms and narcotics smuggling, under China’s concept of “unrestricted warfare.” The threat must take into account China’s claim of 90,000 square kilometers of Arunachal Pradesh, China and Pakistan using Rohingya and the United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia, PLA consolidation in Doklam and how Chinese influence will increase in Bhutan and Bangladesh.
Notably when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party was in power, it was more aligned with China and Pakistan than with India because of its radical base. The rise in Nepal-China trade will correspondingly reduce Nepal’s dependence on India, as it trusts China to use subsidies to achieve its strategic aims. To facilitate fewer Nepalis joining the Indian Army, China can fund expansion of Nepal’s army, and subsequent maintenance (as Saudi Arabia funds a number of Pakistani Army divisions) or even recruit Nepalis into the PLA, like the British Army. The Hong Kong Police Force already employs Nepalis.
Scholars and diplomats have periodically lamented India’s lack of strategic foresight. India helped abolish Nepal’s constitutional monarchy to keep Maoists from coming to power. The 2015-2016 land blockade of Nepal by the present Indian government was foolish – as was creating cooking-gas shortages in Bhutan.
China’s political warfare permeates India, together with peace homilies and red herrings like the China-India-Pakistan Trilateral and Kolkata-Kunming bullet train, the latter to inject Chinese companies in India’s northeast while China is dead set against Japanese investments in the same region.
Indian projects in Nepal have been running behind schedule, as has been India’s case elsewhere. In comparison, China completes projects generally before their deadlines. Nepal recently renewed the US$2.5 billion Budhi Gandaki hydroelectric-project contract to a Chinese company that the previous government scrapped in 2017.
Whether India can foresee the heightening threat and institute timely countermeasures including future requirements to guard the Indo-Nepalese border, as also the Indo-Bhutanese border, in a later time frame, together with security of the Siliguri Corridor, is an open question. Having reduced defense allocations to 1962 levels, the exercise is on to reduce the Indian Army’s strength by 150,000, unmindful of what lies ahead.
This is a request to the Asia Times’ editorial team.
Maybe it is not a good idea to publish a write-up from a contributor just because he/she assumed (or assumed) a formal post. Clearly, Mr. Katoch has fundamental flaws in how he perceives these issues.
Please keep in mind, just stating "Asia Times is not responsible for the opinions, facts or any media content presented by contributors," will not save the image of your publication from being tarnished among its readers. Thank you very much.
I feel like I should write to AsiaTimes head of publishing department for letting this too proud patriotic "lieutenant-general" writting his propaganda crap. I do hope he’s not paid, because it complete waste of money. A journanalist has a moral obligation to stay neutral on his article and not side based on patriotism. This old man has completely lost his mind and broke the journslim code by letting his pride making him write biased analysis without any official information. He doesn’t even do a little research. It is time to ban him and let him have his retirement by spendng time win another field.
bullshit article
General seems to have lost his mind and has hallucinations. At the same time, I am surprised to see how did it pass quality tests to be published in your publication. It does not have any objectivity and includes jaundiced Indian viewpoint. Extremely disappointed.
Dear " lieutenant general" Prakash Katoch.
It seems that it is not the first time you appear to be writing some nonsense crap based on the propaganda led by the medias of your country and feeling of patriotism to your beloved India.
Most of your "opinions" written are either Anti-Pakistan or either Anti China, sometimes both in one, just like this absolutely biased article.
Then and now, you attack on Nepal just because they refuse to bend on their knees to the Adolf Hitler of India and beloved Master Narendra Modi.
I’m a very surprised that a person like you with such a huge experience in the field has very little knowledge of what’s going on OUTSIDE, if not based on your patriotic feeling and and the nationalist medias.
Please do consider that Nepal, Pakistan and China have nothing against India. Nepal, especially, do shares a strong bond with India and always will. But because this country do not walk like a blinded sheep in the ways your government and Army wants. You people need to stop pretending to be the "Big Brother" of Nepal.
That partnership India and Nepal have is fair enough and the steps your government takes clearly shows an attempt of control in the country and a desperate move of taking on Nepal’s Terai territory.
The Africans are up to now paying on the horrific european colonialism leaving these nations into a poor state while Europe enjoys all their wealth and resources. And whenever these nations are in a terrible state of crisis, Europeeans comes in like heroes rpetending to be the saviours se Africans always rely and be grateful on them.
This exemple is exactly the same story with India being the colonialists and Nepal being the "Africa".
You should write more about how some of your regions are left in total chaos, politcally unstable and corrupted. You should focus on the failed foreign policy that Modi and its government has led. You should write up more about the state that Indian Soldiers are currently in and the growing number of suicides. Many, many terrible things, yet you waste yoru entire team finger pointng your neighbours, that is pathetic.
Oh just a few hours ago I have read that a Dalit of 90 years old has been burned alive for trying enter into a temple. Really ? Oh gee wow, i’m not surprised these are common things in India.
With all respects, "Lieutenant-General", perhaps you should give up journalism, for this field requires to be neutral and not a proud dog barking patriotic and spend your retirement in helping the people of your country.
Kind Regards.
Its rather a blessing that this author has retired, and I wish he writes more to expose the insane and paranoic mindset of the expansionists that they really are. And why would they be a part of BRICS if they are so afraid of the red giants? Just to shake hands once a year?
This piece of propaganda is not complete. There are many things left to write like Nepals all hills and mountain had been fortified with bunkers, underground shelters, ammunition storage facilities. Thousands of Chinese missiles and Artillery pieces had been placed on top of hills to bombard New delhi. Mordern air defence system has been setup and tracking every plane that takeoff and land in India. Nepal already supplied chinese arms to Indian maoist and other sepretist groups. Every Nepalese citizen has been converted to either communist or muslim bla bla bla. I m surprised Why asia times publish imagination of such retarded general
Its totally wrong perception made by retired tired army man. It shows fact than fear which is not true.
They are feeling insecure. So many things going on in their own states, some regions in India are totally in left in chaos, yet, these "journalists" have nothing else to do other than poking in internal affairs of their neighbours, as if Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka needs India’s permission to develop. Bhutanese royals are bunch puppets controlled by India but Bhutanese are generally not siding with indians. Pakistan undersood that and now India are using Afghanistan to try destabilize them. Pakistan and Nepal are both strong countries who are taking a stand. But of course, "lieutenant general" Prakash Katoch is too patriotic to his India to admit it.
This article is just an assumption or a thought of a individual it show lack of information an reality..Nepal an India has a bound an strong relationship as this two countries ar link with historically, language,culturally an religion based relationship with open boarder so it can’t be avoided in terms of relationship . Nepal has face lots of challenges an could not leap forward however in recent times world has change in many ways so as finally Nepal has draft constitution an got a majority government they need change ..in every fild..an give better life to the citizen ..an the government is doing their duty its a sovereign nation its their right to decide for the betterment of nation an citizens they maintain balance relationship as the nation is sandwich between two big powerful nation.I don’t understand is Nepal an china …manufacturing boms an arms..why its so criticize as they want to develop their nation their infrastructure , roads, agricultural..hydro etc….its not 18 century Nepali people they ar well educated qualified an have very intellectual people they can be fooled..an they cant judge what is going on…an in terms of India government they should focus on internal issues an development…their is lots of issues an development to be solved.
What a load of bullshit ! India actually gave shelter and brokered the 12 point agreement between the Maoist and the democratic parties in Nodia to get rid of the only Hindu Kingdom in the World for India"s selfish reason of hegemony!!
Indian always barking can’t do anything …see Indian development in Nepal nothing .. just bullying small neighbor country .. Bhutan should also aware because Indian can’t be trust
As per title says, I dont know if India can feel the Dragons heat in Nepal’s Terai but Nepalese do really can feel the COLD ploy of India to destablise Terai of Nepal, creating political instability and encroaching border areas with the help of Border Security Forces(BSF). Its better for Nepal to build border walls with India, and definitely China will help if Nepal cannot do it by itself.
Prakash Katoch’s article reflects the mindset of indian army. Above all, the muntra of indian political leaders and bureaucrats are to blame others for their failure. India’s imperial and hegemonic leaders should not worry much about China coming close to India border. India ought to be gravely concern about her colonies, viz. Kashmir, Manipur, Tripura etc. Let the Nepal China relations bloom brightly!!!
What a bullshit!
BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) … it was supposed to be technial and economic cooperation .. not a platform to show military power.. which Nepal knew better than other countries who participated.. So stop beating the broken drum for no reason.
Exactly, India wants Nepal to bend its knees like Bhutan did, Nepal refused many times.
How can you say China initiated maiost revolution in Nepal?.. From the book ‘Maile dekheko durbar’ written by then ADC of Kind Birendra and Gyanendra, the secret service of Nepal army had information of Nepali Maiost getting training in Indian territory. And all top maiost leaders were in India at the time of maiost insurgency. This could not exists without acknowledge of indian government. Indian and Nepalese police coordinates together to find criminals in cross border situation.. But its absurd if the indian government didnot knew about Maiost leaders residing in India then, who were officially declared as terrorist in Nepal and was kept in list of Terrorist organisation in the world. This shows India was the one nourishing Maiost revolution by giving training, weapons and shelter.. And at last peace accord between then Seven parties of Nepal and Maiost leaders happened in New Delhi, not in CHINA.. so please dont try to blur and replace history..Everyone knows who created Maiost and who wants to have more influence in Nepal.. THAT IS INDIA
The author got to look at the mirror and reflect why a country so closely linked to India in all aspects, even dependent on India would dare to defy its benefactor and seek help from China. This they know would upset India further and probably squeezed harder. Though China did try to increase its influence in Nepal, it is aware of India’s sensitivity over Nepal. Something is missing here?
"The author retired as lieutenant general from the Indian Army’s Special Forces."
No wonder why this article is a load of bullshit. India failed its foreign diplomacy by acting like colonialists in Nepal and now blame all their failures into the shoulders of China and Pakistan. The Terai region has always been under India’s influence. It is no surprise that Nepal seeks China’s help to get rid of the Modi’s empire. And no, Pakistan do not have any influence on Nepal. You only like to make up stories with countries like Nepal,and Pakistan because these are the one that refuses to get down on their knees to obey to Modi.
Asia Times, if you want real journalism, for Pete’s sake hires people who have an actual degree in journalism and knowledge in historical politics in South Asia.
Not a patriotic old retired lieutenant from an army of a country that literally have no dignity.