The alacrity with which China is drawing Nepal into its orbit has raised eyebrows, but the process began almost seven decades back, with Mao Zedong calling Tibet the “palm of China” and Nepal one of the fingers, initiating Maoist insurgency in Nepal to install a regime in Kathmandu not friendly to the US and India.
After more than 19,000 were killed in the Nepalese Civil War and 100,000-150,000 internally displaced, finally China managed to combine Nepal’s two main Communist parties and install the present Left Alliance government, dominated by the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), in Kathmandu. China has pulled out all stops to absorb Nepal politically and strategically: overtaking India in establishing industries by 2013; opening employment avenues through industries and projects including energy and hydropower; establishing a Confucius Institute in Kathmandu; increasing military cooperation; and improving communications linking Nepal with China.
China’s immediate gains included Nepalese curbs on Tibetans and Buddhists, making their lives difficult, with many handed over to China.
Nepali Maoists admit full support to Maoists in India. Before Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) became the prime minister of Nepal, he said, “The ultimate war will be with the Indian Army.”
China accords a head-of-state welcome to Prachanda even when out of power. Similarly, K P Sharma Oli, the present prime minister, vowed to stop Nepalis from joining the Indian Army. China has allowed Nepal to use four seaports (Shenzhen, Zhanjiang, Lianyungang and Tianjin) and three land-ports (Lanzhou, Lhasa and Shigatse) for third-country trade.
The general reaction is that Nepal will remain India-dependent, the distances between Nepal and Chinese ports being three times that of Nepal-Kolkata and one and a half times Nepal-Vizag. But road quality and train speeds are better in China.
Significantly, it is Nepal that sought access to Chinese ports to reduce dependence on India because of the prolonged blockade of the India-Nepal border during 2015-2016, causing severe shortages for months.
A Nepalese Army contingent was stopped just a day before its scheduled departure to participate in the first BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) counterterrorism exercise in India last month. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced the exercise at the BIMSTEC meet in late August but Thailand too did not participate.
Nepal cited “criticism from different quarters,” which Oli could have overridden; stopping the contingent with three officers already having reached the exercise venue was possibly a Chinese diktat meant to snub India – with the Nepalese Army participating in a two-week counterterrorism exercise in China the same month.
Nepal’s army chief, General Purna Chandra Thapa, also declined the Indian Army’s invite to attend a conclave of BIMSTEC defense heads.
China’s handling of the Uighur hasn’t evoked protests from Islamic countries such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, not even by ISIS or al-Qaeda. With the Taliban on its side, China is adept at using Islamists, which needs watching as China-Pakistan incorporates Nepal, strategically encircling India. Some 97% of the more than 100,000 Nepali Muslims live in the Terai region bordering India, with the rest in Kathmandu and western hills.
Nepal is fast becoming a “control center” of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence. Significantly, then-Pakistani prime minister Shahid Khaquan Abbasi was the first foreign dignitary to visit Nepal last March when Oli became PM.
Nepal has permitted China to drill for oil in Terai and has allowed 30 Chinese non-profits to penetrate the Nepalese social sector and the grassroots; building anti-India perceptions will be high on the Chinese agenda. It is only a matter of time before the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is deployed in the Terai region, in civilian garb or otherwise.
Nepal is deploying drones on the Indian border, obviously Chinese, that can assist infiltration, and arms and narcotics smuggling, under China’s concept of “unrestricted warfare.” The threat must take into account China’s claim of 90,000 square kilometers of Arunachal Pradesh, China and Pakistan using Rohingya and the United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia, PLA consolidation in Doklam and how Chinese influence will increase in Bhutan and Bangladesh.
Notably when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party was in power, it was more aligned with China and Pakistan than with India because of its radical base. The rise in Nepal-China trade will correspondingly reduce Nepal’s dependence on India, as it trusts China to use subsidies to achieve its strategic aims. To facilitate fewer Nepalis joining the Indian Army, China can fund expansion of Nepal’s army, and subsequent maintenance (as Saudi Arabia funds a number of Pakistani Army divisions) or even recruit Nepalis into the PLA, like the British Army. The Hong Kong Police Force already employs Nepalis.
Scholars and diplomats have periodically lamented India’s lack of strategic foresight. India helped abolish Nepal’s constitutional monarchy to keep Maoists from coming to power. The 2015-2016 land blockade of Nepal by the present Indian government was foolish – as was creating cooking-gas shortages in Bhutan.
China’s political warfare permeates India, together with peace homilies and red herrings like the China-India-Pakistan Trilateral and Kolkata-Kunming bullet train, the latter to inject Chinese companies in India’s northeast while China is dead set against Japanese investments in the same region.
Indian projects in Nepal have been running behind schedule, as has been India’s case elsewhere. In comparison, China completes projects generally before their deadlines. Nepal recently renewed the US$2.5 billion Budhi Gandaki hydroelectric-project contract to a Chinese company that the previous government scrapped in 2017.
Whether India can foresee the heightening threat and institute timely countermeasures including future requirements to guard the Indo-Nepalese border, as also the Indo-Bhutanese border, in a later time frame, together with security of the Siliguri Corridor, is an open question. Having reduced defense allocations to 1962 levels, the exercise is on to reduce the Indian Army’s strength by 150,000, unmindful of what lies ahead.
Greatcriticism
Great comments.kudos. India is aspiring to become viswa guru world leader and coloniser But it is a matter of redicule and shame that India is the most poor and backward country where ruling Manuvadi elite ambitions to rule world
Gautam Sinha dear Gautam ji India and nepal would be friends of if the Indian govt had not screwed up not just modi generally everybody. This piece is completely useless its a hack job. A lot of Nepalese would like to have a better relation with india but it requires patience and a genuine change of heart from Indian govt and it’s intelligence agencies. Tiff not our friendship is screwd
What a dumb article. If you hadn’t helped the Maoist insurgency.
If you want conspired to end the monarchy. If modi hadn’t so blatantly blockaded. Only if. China is no saint it is doing what benefits it. But the Indian policy in nepal was dumb as dumb can be. So wake up and smell the coffee
A good read with facts based on impirical examples.
India is a jealous country. The poor indian minded army general expressing his frustration against nepal china ties.
Gautam Sinha
In the West capitalism, a big cross border loan in its legitimate business sense should be guaranteed by the local government. If the government is weak and overthrown, the loan can lost. Therefore, it’s normal that local government seek support so that it can stay in power and service the loan.
Why would you publish what is plainly the imagination of the author? The author also exhibits his ignorance.
Dear Asia Times, Please tell me, why would you publish this bullshit? Do you have an editorial policy? Who are the genuis editors who would think this drivel had any semblence to reality?
U are right..How they look Nepal …still they think nepali ar living in 18century..though country could not leap in fild of development coz of various political situation however for god sake….Nepal is a democratic country for now..an has opposition party..an those intellectual people plus the educated citizen wil not tie their hand an just watch..of course they Will raise their voice if they feel if the present government is going on wrong way..they will alert…they have their ideas will power to decide…
I simply can’t understand why India is always paranoid about it’s neighbours? First they started with Pakistan, dismembered it into two parts, thanks to the distance of 1000 miles inbetween the two parts plus Bengali uprising, which I think had some elements of justification. Then they created LTTE which wreak havock in Sri Lanka for decades. Then came the blocakde of Nepal which left them paralysed. India has been playing the bullying game with Maldives, Bhutan and Bangladesh equally.
India needs to focus on it’s economic development and leave its neighbours alone as it has to feed its 1.25 billion hungry mouths; only bullying neighbours and spending people’s money on expensive arms won’t solve its problems.
Gautam Sinha yes communism might have origin in china but that doesnt mean china spreads communism all over world..was your republic system n democracy came from France..as france was first republic??.. and about chinese stooges in India.. Nepalese guerrillas were trained in camps of armies and BSFs.. if you call them. chinese stooges then i dont have anything to say
Gautam Sinha i dont undertand.. india has trade with china way more than that of Nepal and china..but when it comes trade relation between Nepal and China.. why india sees dragon dancing on Nepal??.. is there logic in it??.. if India has right to show its perspective..why Nepal shouldnt have rights to decide independently what is good for itself..and deal with China..?? please explain this to me
India is not claiming anything and India is entitled to have it’s own opinion so just chill.
India likes it.. please build it. Also take back anyone working in our household. Even in USA we employ Nepalis because of attachment.
Sir even in India communism is from China, if China tries to train Nepali communist through it’s stooges in India still it is Chinese. Indian people more or less reject communism.
Getting trade benefits is always good for Nepal people, this is not a snub to India. We are happy if China can do some free stuff, but usually that is very rare. China wants always to control govt if it provides any loan assistance, it is upto Nepal, India has no say in that.
Sir this is from Indian perception and India is entitled to it’s perception. It is not asking Nepal or China anything. Anyway Chinese are trying hard to win over India and they will not do any backdoor stuff so just chill.
Sajan Shakya No one in India wants all that..nothing to gain from it. So just stop this
Samy Tao Hee-Vah India faces constant internal contradictions arise from the caste systems established by the Aryans vs the indigenous Dravidians and shades in between, along with mass democracy, is a giant mess making mockery of all modern measures of progress, and especially of what famous reformers like Buddha and Gandhi preached which both are long forgotten in India.
Last time blockade was the third one. Present generation was not much aware about earlier blockade but last one made every Nepali to think about India´s intention and will not forget in their life time. Nepal and India have strong cultural and religious relation, every Nepali used to feel comfortable while travelling to India. But blockade changed the situation. Nepali want to have alternative of India irrespective of cost and difficulties. Here also author has written that Nepali may join PLA like in Britain and India which is completly baseless. Earlier, the situation was different and present is the continuation of past, but this is 21st centuary and every Nepali are aware about such condition. Still few Indian people (like author) have hangover of British era which help to increase the differences. So if you want built good relation think twice before writting such articles.