The US has to take dramatic steps to reset its relationship with Taiwan in order to provide deterrence not only for Taiwan but for the region. If a conflict breaks out between China and Taiwan it will impact not only Taiwan but also Japan and Korea and other democratic governments in East Asia.
The current way potential US intervention is seen as grossly inadequate in light of China’s military buildup and her increasingly aggressive interventions toward Taiwan and Japan, and militarization of some of the South China Sea islands and reefs.
Speaking at a conference at the Hudson Institute, I put on the table a number of proposals that could greatly improve regional stability through deterrence. The panel of experts at Hudson included Dr Parris Chang, former deputy director of Taiwan’s National Security Council and professor emeritus of political science at Pennsylvania State University, Mr Michael Tsai, former Taiwan Defense Minister, and Richard Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center and member of the Advisory Board of the Global Taiwan Institute.
The idea that the US could “rescue” Taiwan if trouble brewed, as it did in the missile crisis of 1996 (where I was present with former CIA director James Woolsey) is obsolete in light of China’s military buildup.
Even in 1996 it was a big risk to use the “rescue” scenario when the United States finally (after two weeks of equivocating) deployed two aircraft carriers to the region. Since then China has focused on weapons that can kill an American aircraft carrier, but even if the aircraft carrier still has utility, the time it takes to get them in position and their vulnerability means they alone could fail in their mission.
Practical planning needed
The US has bases in Japan, on the main island and Okinawa, plus important bases on Guam, but Guam is far away – over 2,700 km – and in both cases there is no operational plan or CON-OPS (the concept of operations) that has been worked out with Taiwan or Taiwan’s neighbors.
Urgently needed, as I explained at the Hudson conference, is the need for high-level coordination between the US and Taiwan. This means planning for various scenarios, working out expeditionary operations with Taiwan’s military, putting in place communications and command and control sharing for defense.
In short, the US should work with Taiwan and Taiwan’s neighbors the same way it works with NATO at the operational level. The immediate task is to set up a series of in-depth exchange meetings with the military leaders of the United States and Taiwan – not ceremonial but practical planning.
I also presented the need for virtual training and recently shared that idea exclusively with Asia Times. It is based on the use of modern simulators and electronic networking to test various scenarios against a range of threats that China could use against Taiwan or perhaps against both Taiwan and Japan, where Chinese aircraft and ships are also conducting harassment operations.
Virtual alliance simulator training
In Operation Spartan Alliance, Italy linked 22 simulators in two countries (Italy and Germany) to test out NATO defense scenarios. The entire affair was done electronically – no airplanes or ships or submarines or soldiers were used, everything was by simulation.
There is no reason in the world why the US and Taiwan should not adopt the same approach and do so quickly. In fact, others including Japan, Korea and Singapore, for example, could join in the same process. As it is also carried out over encrypted links in cyberspace, there is very little the Chinese could complain about, and even if they do, they won’t know exactly what took place.
Such a “Virtual Alliance” has many benefits, because it removes uncertainty, which casts a big pall over East Asian security, and it shows how coordination can improve security.
Another significant benefit is that any shortcomings or holes in defenses can be pinpointed and solved well in advance of a crisis.
Beyond putting in place programs leading to Virtual Alliances, the US must also encourage setting up regional alliances that include Taiwan, especially with Japan, which basically is almost in the firing line as much Taiwan.
Among other things we need to work out with Japan are explicit agreements covering the use of our air, naval and Marine bases in Japan for regional defense – as without doing so we face the possibility of a political crisis that is unacceptable in any war scenario.
Allow Taiwan to buy F-35s
Beyond that Japan is improving its military capabilities, albeit slowly – and is acquiring the formidable F-35, which the US is already deploying at its bases in Japan and on Okinawa. Korea is also getting F-35s.
It is strongly in the US interest for Taiwan to also get the F-35 and the administration should not offhandedly reject Taiwan’s request to acquire them.
The F-35 has powerful internet-like plane-to-plane optimization and visualization, vital as a force multiplier against a growing and sophisticated Chinese Air Force. China will outnumber all of East Asia’s air arms including the United States, but the F-35 can act as a powerful deterrent.
Moreover, the US needs one supply chain and resupply capability. America cannot easily support Taiwan’s domestic fighters, its aging F-16’s or its Mirage fighters (that come from France).
The secret to any defense strategy is compatible equipment and common logistics. With F-35s in Taiwan, Japan and Korea the US can preposition vital supplies and common support facilities. No one has talked about prepositioning material on Taiwan, but it makes sense and there is no reason not to do so.
The US is Taiwan’s main arms supply source, and prepositioning spares and munitions can be done in that context and framework without giving China much cause to complain (any more than it does anyway while we don’t officially complain about China’s stepped up harassment operations or its military buildup).
Finally, we need to practice using air bases and other facilities in Taiwan. The recent allegedly unplanned arrival of two F-18’s to Taiwan is an example of what we need to do systematically in future. We should not be making excuses in using Taiwan’s air bases and naval facilities, and the experience both sides will gain from doing so will be very helpful in any future conflict scenario.
The above are some of the suggestions I made at Hudson. The US is truly at a crossroads and needs to properly commit itself to defending democratic countries in East Asia.
The loss of Taiwan would be a body blow not only to the Taiwanese and Japan, but it would push the US out of the East Pacific region entirely. It is clear we can’t let that happen, and American leaders must bite the bullet and move now before it is too late.
William Huang, are you disappointed that US insists that there is only one China, Taiwan is an integral part of China, and PRC is the government of China? USA scares of paper tiger, why does Taiwanese still put all their hope on someone who scares of a paper tiger? Are you saying Taiwanese stupid or suicidal?
China should work with Russia, Hawaii, Guam and California to form a military organisation similar to NATO.
It is a proven fact that the US is a destructive blight on Asia. It is not wanted by peace loving Asians and should get out of Asia.
Yi-Hsin Huang, Where have you been? CCP has liberated Chinese in 1949 from the barbaric blood sucking western imperialists and their compradors except small portion of those in Taiwan under the unrepentant war criminal Japanese wannabe DPP separatists white terror yoke. Don’t you know there are tens of millions of Chinese tourists travelling around world freely? A lot of nations’ prosperity depends on the Chinese tourists. On the other hand, current Taiwan economy slum is caused by DPP’s blinding anti China hatred and deterred Chinese travelling to Taiwan.
Taiwan is under DPP white terror rule, no Taiwanese is dare to speak out the truth that Taiwan is an integral part of China, their root is in China and their blood and culture connections with China is thicker than water, because DPP will send anyone in Taiwan speak out the truth to jail on the charge of security risk and CCP spy.
U.S. shall abandon one-China policy and re-establish deplomatic relationship with China. Don’t be scared by paper tiger.
Unfortunately, Jeff Voek suffers from stage IV malignant Exceptionalism Cancer – which is rather wide-spread amongst the Empire’s vocal pipsqueak citizens and vassals like UK, France, and even MORE junior midgets and dwarfs, Canada and Australia. He’s been brainwashed since birth to think America only wants peace, and is the "good" cop.
America national security is headed by a group of lunatics. They will destroy the American way of life or simply life and the World. We are living in a very risky world…
Agreed. The US is digging its own grave.
Taiwan is a free country.
Michael Chan ==Your The one threatening nuclear war .America wants peace but we are prepared for war.
Jeff Voeks
China and Russia have nuclear weapons too, like USA and North Korea. So, a nuclear war means the annihilation of mankind. The Californians too are free people, like all Americans and Taiwanese. And they, the Californians are friends to many countries. They may want to secede from USA.
Peter==Before You start threatening America with nuclear war you mite want to remember we have 6000 nuclear weapons. Taiwan is a free country and our friend.
China would do well liberating it’s own 1.3 billion people from the CCP before interfering in another sovereign country’s internal affairs.
That is a real good idea Mr Byren—————lets sell the Govt. of Taiwan our most sophisticated weapons system——-so the plans will be stolen by a spy on the ground in Taiwan and end up in the Middle Kingdom——for sure one of your more brilliant articles on Asia Times. Let us not pretend this has not happened in the past——–America’s best military ideas ending up with a foe are even a friend!!!
The only aggressor in the Western Pacifc is the USA. USA is 10,000 miles on the other side of the Pacific Ocean. In history no aliens from far away land ever have the well-being of locals in heart; they are the invaders and troublemakers; the only way they can benefit from a faraway place is to create chaos, insert wedges, sow discords and incite animosities between the locals. The current tensions in the Western Pacific are the result of aliens from far away land creating chaos, inserting wedges, sowing discords and inciting animosities between the nations around the Western Pacific.
For over seventy years the US has dominated Asia, ravaging the continent with two major wars in Korea and Indo-China with millions of casualties, and multiple counter-insurgency interventions in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor, Myanmar, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The strategic goal has been to expand its military and political power, exploit the economies and resources and encircle China.
The only way to keep peace and prosperity in the Western pacific is the locals uniting together and armed themselves to the teeth to keep out the aliens from the faraway lands like the Americans at bay.
Karl Augustine,
I beg to differ from your opinion. The notion of neoconisation is in your mind and in the minds of the stupid western people like you. But the Carribean population regards highly their relationship with China. They prefer the Chinese approach of economic development through trade and investments rather that the American bombs, drones and sanctions.
I have a better suggestion. For the world’s security, China, Russia and Iran must consider California as a separate independent country and offer the independentists in California all moral, political, monetary and military help.
the thing is, that while the US does precious little for the caribbean and throws its weight around when it feels the caribbean people still prefer the interaction with the US than the chinese given practices of China in the region which is quasi neocolonisation. China’s aid has hidden conditions and the integration of chinese is really low compared with the Americans. so it is difficult for china to hold sway over the region with the easy acceptance or participation of the native population, and certainly not the idea of attacking the US where many thousands of regional people call home.
china has to change it methods and approaches to ever having that level of influence
taiwan is not like philippines that can easily destroy by mainland.
China should likewise improve regional security by resetting its relations with South American and Caribbean nations to respond to US aggression against world peace and stability. Should consider setting up military bases around the US.
This is not some European country. The US is crossing a red line for China if it does that. Don’t think the US wants to butt it’s head with a nuclear power with determination to reclaim Taiwan. Some silly laughable suggestion by the writer.