Hysteria is at fever pitch. After the NATO summit in Brussels, the definitive Decline of the West has been declared a done deal as President Trump gets ready to meet President Putin in Helsinki.
It was Trump himself who stipulated that he wants to talk to Putin behind closed doors, face-to-face, without any aides and, in theory, spontaneously, after the preparatory meeting between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was canceled. The summit will take place at the early 19th century Presidential Palace in Helsinki, a former residence of Russian emperors.
As a preamble to Helsinki, Trump’s spectacular NATO blitzkrieg was a show for the ages; assorted “leaders” in Brussels simply didn’t know what hit them. Trump didn’t even bother to arrive on time for morning sessions dealing with the possible accession of Ukraine and Georgia. Diplomats confirmed to Asia Times that after Trump’s stinging “pay up or else” tirade, Ukraine and Georgia were asked to leave the room because what would be discussed was strictly an internal NATO issue.
Previewing the summit, Eurocrats indulged in interminable carping about “illiberalism” taking over, from Viktor Orban in Hungary to Sultan Erdogan in Turkey, as well as mourning the “destruction of European unity” (yes, it’s always Putin’s fault). Trump though would have none of it. The US President conflates the EU with NATO, interpreting the EU as a rival, just like China, but much weaker. As for the US “deal” with NATO, just like NAFTA, that’s a bad deal.
NATO is ‘obsolete’
Trump is correct that without the US, NATO is “obsolete” – as in non-existent. So essentially what he did in Brussels laid bare the case for NATO as a protection racket, with Washington fully entitled to up the stakes for the “protection”.
But “protection” against what?
Since the dismemberment of Yugoslavia, when NATO was repositioned in its new role as humanitarian imperialist global Robocop, the alliance’s record is absolutely dismal.
That features miserably losing an endless war in Afghanistan against a bunch of Pashtun warriors armed with Kalashnikov replicas; turning functional Libya into a militia wasteland and headquarters for Europe-bound refugees; and having the NATO-Gulf Cooperation Council lose its bet on a galaxy of jihadis and crypto-jihadis in Syria spun as “moderate rebels”.
NATO has launched a new training, non-combat mission in Iraq; 15 years after Shock and Awe, Sunnis, Shi’ites, Yazidis and even Kurdish factions are not impressed.
Then there’s the NATO Readiness Initiative; the capacity of deploying 30 battalions, 30 battleships and 30 aircraft squadrons within 30 days (or less) by 2020. If not to wreak selected havoc across the Global South, this initiative is supposedly set up to deter “Russian aggression”.
So after dabbling with the Global War on Terror, NATO is essentially back to the original “threat”; the imminent Russian invasion of Western Europe – a ludicrous notion if there ever was one. The final statement in Brussels spells it out, with special emphasis on item 6 and item 7.
The combined GDP of all NATO members is 12 times that of Russia. And NATO’s defense spending is six times larger than Russia’s. Contrary to non-stop Polish and Baltic hysteria, Russia does not need to “invade” anything; what worries the Kremlin, in the long term, is the well being of ethnic Russians living in former Soviet republics.
Russia can’t be both threat and an energy partner
Then there’s Europe’s energy policy – and that’s a completely different story.
Trump has described the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as “inappropriate”, but his claim that Germany gets 70% of its energy (via natural gas imports) from Russia may be easily debunked. Germany gets at best 9% of its energy from Russia. In terms of Germany’s sources of energy, only 20% is natural gas. And less than 40% of natural gas in Germany comes from Russia. Germany is fast transitioning towards wind, solar, biomass and hydro energy, which made up 41% of the total in 2018. And the target is 50% by 2030.
Yet Trump does have a sterling point when, stressing that “Germany is a rich country”, he wants to know why America should “protect you against Russia” when energy deals are on the table. “Explain that! It can’t be explained!” as he reportedly said to Nato Secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday.
In the end, of course, it’s all about business. What Trump is really aiming at is for Germany to import US shale gas, three times more expensive than pipeline-delivered Russian gas.
The energy angle is directly linked to the never-ending 2% defense spending soap opera. Germany currently spends 1.2% of GDP on NATO. by 2024, it’s supposed to reach at best 1.5%. And that’s it. The majority of German voters, in fact, want US troops out.
So Trump’s demand for 4% of GDP on defense spending for all NATO members will never fly. The sales pitch should be seen for what it is: a tentative “invitation” for an increased EU and NATO shopping spree on US military hardware.
In a nutshell, the key factor remains that Trump’s Brussels blitzkrieg did make his case. Russia cannot be a “threat” and a reliable energy partner at the same time. As much as NATO poodles may be terrified of “Russian aggression”, the facts spell out they won’t put their money where their rhetorical hysteria is.
Are you listening now?
“Russian aggression” should be one of the top items discussed in Helsinki. In the – remote – possibility that Trump will strike a deal with Putin, NATO’s absurd raison d’etre would be even more exposed.
That’s not the US “deep-state” agenda, of course, thus the 24/7 demonization of the summit even before it happens. Moreover, for Trump, the transactional gambling man’s Make-America-Great-Again point of view, the ideal outcome would always be to get even more European weapons deals for the US industrial-military-intelligence complex.
Terrified by Trump, diplomats in Brussels over these past few days have conveyed to Asia Times fears about the end of NATO, the end of the World Trade Organization, even the end of the EU. But the fact remains that Europe is absolutely peripheral to the Big Picture.
In Losing Military Supremacy, his latest, groundbreaking book, crack Russian military-naval analyst Andrei Martyanov deconstructs in detail how, “the United States faces two nuclear and industrial superpowers, one of which fields a world-class armed forces. If the military-political, as opposed to merely economic, alliance between Russia and China is ever formalized – this will spell the final doom for the United States as a global power.”
The US deep state (its influential bureaucrats) may be wallowing in perpetual denial, but Trump – after many a closed-door meeting with Henry Kissinger – may have understood the suicidal “strategy” of Washington simultaneously antagonizing Russia and China.
Putin’s landmark March 1 speech, as Martyanov stresses, was an effort to “coerce America’s elites, if not into peace, at least into some form of sanity, given that they are currently completely detached from the geopolitical, military and economic realities of the newly emerging power configurations of the world”. These elites may not be listening, but Trump seems to indicate he is.
As for the NATO poodles, all they can do is watch.
I concur with the some of the writer’s arguments, especially Trump’s attempt to engage with Putin.
The US elite have been wedded to the idea of confronting both Russia and China – a STUPID move. They seem to be detached from reality.
If Trump can organise some kind of DETENTE with Russia, then that will go substantially in defusing a potential threat and create a closer pact with the latter. Of course, this will annoy China, which is a good thing…as it will moderate its behaviour if Russia is seen to cosy up to the USA. Stranger things have happened before.
Trump, for all his faults, is a thorn in the side of the US elite, who have enjoyed their priviliges for too long and have its own citizens as idiots and taken them for granted.
TAKE CLOSE LOOK AT THE PICTURE ABOVE AND RECOGNIZE THAT THE TWO MEN ON EACH SIDE OF TRUMP ARE THE VERY EPITOME OF THE NEOCON ZIONIST WALL STREET WARING AGENDA IN TRUMPS ADM. IF FACT THE AMERICAN MEDIA PRESENT A TRUMPS SPEECH PRAISING ""NATO"" AND HOW THEY REACHED A DEAL.THERE WILL BE NO DISMANTLEING OF NATO AND IF TRUMP THINKS THOSE TWO ON HIS SIDE WILL ALLOW HIM TO MAKE ANYTHING OTHER THAN FIARY TALE DEAL SUCH AS WAS MADE IN SINGAPORE. GOOD LUCK!!!
The picture shows a dotard in the middle, flanked by a torturer and a mad murderer.
It is delusional thinking that Russia would throw China under the bus because of a few kind words from the USA. The US has been bashing Russia ever since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Putin is never going to give up Russia`s economic lifeline and chief military ally to a USA that can change it`s mind on a dime. Just look at the JCPAO. Vladimir Putin will make nice to the USA for one reason only and that is to give Russia more time to build up and modernize it`s military and further cement it`s economic and military relationship with China. He knows that China and Russia working as team together can make the US and Europe irrelevant in world affairs. it is really stupid to think President Putin is going to throw that away for a few crumbs from the Rodney Dangerfield look alike in the Whitehouse. in any event it sure would be great theater to see Trump try and treat Putin the way he did his so called friends at the NATO meeting.
I’m actually laughing at this line:
>Trump, for all his faults, is a thorn in the side of the US elite, who have enjoyed their priviliges for too long
Trump is the definition of "elite" in the US. He was born with everything, inherited his father’s real estate empire, and then managed to underperform the S&P while bankrupting multiple companies. He’s far more privileged than the so-called "elites" you’re referring too.
Alliance between Russia and China spells the final doom for the United States as a global power.”
Trump is an isolationist who wants to channel part of the US defense budget to domestic purposes. To achieve that he decided to kick around his allies so hard, both in the economic and the military fronts, that they will leave the Atlantic Alliance of their own accord. And by being that aggressive towards Europe, Trump is making sure that the US establishment – which still dreams of Empire – will not be able to hold the alliance together, no matter how hard they try.
Michael Zhao I find both Pepe Escobar and David Goldman laughable, they are so wedded to their biases and delusions that they’ve invented a new reality. From Pepe I get the idea that Putin is Syria’s saviour and it loves him, and Davey boy seems to Trump is more moral than most americans as he flip flops daily on the trade war…
Michael Zhao The real elites, the entrenched center of power, sometimes referred to as "Deep State", who run the U.S. look upon Donald Trump for what he is…a son of a slumlord. These are the DuPonts, Carnegies, Morgans, Rockefellers and Rothschilds.
I’m the only person I know who ever speaks positively about Mr. Trump. I do that because of his statements during the campaign suggestiong a less aggresive approach to Russia and China. As staff came and went, I began to despair of his being able to do any of that — and especially when these two wild boars became his closest foreign policy aides. But lo and behold, he is getting ready to meet Mr. Putin one-on-one. Who knows what might happen.
The world needs to stand up to the USA. Impose tariffs on all American goods. Actually, BDS the USA.
It’s almost impossable to disagree with Pepe Escobar. Kudos!
Divide et impera. To make it work operator must use carrots and sticks – deep pockets and muscle to match, and some commonality of interests with the breakaway target.
In 1971-72 Republican Nixon successfully weaned China from Corporate Socialist Russia. Then Russia and China differed on goals and means, America had money, skills, technology what China badly needed and bankrupt Russia did not have.
Today Republican Trump tries the same – to wean Russia away from China. But now China and Russia have same objectives, are inter-dependent, and America is broke, technology old, while China sits of a pile of cash and STEM rich. Why should Russia listen to America?
Ironically it is Russia that has successfully split NATO, weaned Europe from America. Russia has what EU needs – energy, access to China via BRI.
Draw your own conclusions.
Trump knows that the NATO poodles are afraid of him and will try to obey him and buy more weapons from American war machines. But both China & Russia are looking at more constructive ways to build friendhips like silk road. Kissinger’s deplomacy days are gone and may not work in the 21st century. Trump is trying to make more money for himself & family and does not care much for USA. The American public will realise it but may be too late. At the end of Trump rule both China & Russia will be more powerful. North Korens already successful in fooling Trump. Others will praise him and do the opposite of what Trump wants.
Thomas Daniel Kuhn
U seem to forget the fact that PUTIN (and TRUMP) will not be there forever….BUT their offices will survive their demise.
What matters is PERMANENT INTERESTS!
Putin depends on a coterie of like-minded individuals, the St Petersburg clique, who have enriched themselves hugely at the expense of the Russian people, while closing down all options of a Russian version of democracy (there are plenty of Russians who want to grow democracy but are up against a Mafia state).
Putin has a MASSIVE EGO (ditto Trump)….and so has XI PING. Russia was a former superpower, now a fraction of its former self. But, China now feels it has a right to be the 2nd superpower. I cannot see an egoistic Xi Ping tolerating Putin while challenging the USA for the crown!
Russia and China have a quasi-alliance – a tactical move by both….but how long will that last?
Stranger things have happened…but a Russia-USA alliance against China cannot be ruled out in the future!
god
Unfortunately for you (and for us), we’re a net importer.
"Trump’s demand for 4% of GDP on defense spending for all NATO members will never fly. The sales pitch should be seen for what it is: a tentative ‘invitation’ for an increased EU and NATO shopping spree on US military hardware."
There’s only one problem with this assumption: that Europe spending more on defense automatically means buying more weapons from the US. In fact, most of the major NATO countries (UK, Germany, France, Italy) already have their own MICs. Some, like France, are even major arms exporters.
James O’Brien Syrians do love Putin and I constantly hear from Syrians and the Syrian governrment that Russis did indeed help save them.
Trump is proving to be a tough President. He doesn’t seem to get influenced by any groups. He just implements what he said he will and those who did not vote for him is crying hysterically for it.????
Robust common sense apart from America First pervades Trump’s policies. China owes in part both its militarily and Strategic eminence to the half baked policies of Obama. He slapped sanctions on Russia and as a result drove them to China for marketing its Natural Gas. Europe was deprived and China got empowered. The days of Russian threat to Western Europe are over. Russia has got much to catch up to provide good standard of living to it’s citizens as compared to their West European counterparts . Moreover western Europe has to first quell the migrants who are draining out it’s resources and causing grave disintegration of it’s Soceity. If anything it’s China that’s going to be a threat to Western Europe through its market policies.
Your a DOUCHE!!!????