From the conclusion of the Second World War on, the United States Navy has enjoyed unchallenged freedom to operate throughout the Pacific, including off the shores of China, a reality that Beijing has had little choice but to accept.
Those days may be over sooner than many think. In fact, according to one well-regarded Australian security analyst, China may begin to exert control over the wide swath of territory it claims in the South China Sea within a year.
The prediction, made this week in Washington by the director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Peter Jennings, was quite specific. It went so far as to say the Chinese military will likely close off air and sea space to hold exercises in international waters. Though recognized as international waters, China has claimed (nearly) the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory.
US and Australian government officials and other security analysts who spoke with The Sydney Morning Herald, which reported the comments on Friday, all said the scenario was plausible. Some thought it likely.
“Even though this would be presented as a temporary measure – a few days, perhaps a week – it would be the end of freedom of navigation and overflight if it went unchallenged,” the article asserted.
“It’s right to expect some kind of testing by China to see how far they can go, to find the limits. You have to be unwaveringly consistent and firm,” Michele Flournoy, a former top Pentagon policy adviser was quoted as saying.
“China’s pattern of behavior is like they’re boiling a frog – keep the temperature high enough to change the frog from live to one you can eat, but not with any extreme changes so that the frog jumps out of the pot,” she said.
Flournoy was a participant at the Australian-American Leadership Dialogue, where Jennings made his comments.
Former Trump political strategist Steve Bannon, also speaking to The Sydney Morning Herald, made his own prediction – about how Trump would respond.
“He understands that the central geopolitical issue of the century is China versus the West,” Bannon said. “He will not let the South China Sea go uncontested. He’s been consistent on China for 30 years. He understands China is the main event. He’s not going to back off.”
While there was a prolonged lull in related tensions between Washington and Beijing following Trump’s election, the temperature has risen in recent months as Chinese moves to deploy weapons on contested islands have been met with US freedom of navigation operations.
Analysts saw initial reticence on the part of the Trump administration as a sign that China’s militarization of the South China Sea had taken a back seat to the crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Following the buildup of momentum for a diplomatic resolution to North Korea, the gloves came off for the US president on the issue of trade, and the Pentagon has been more vocal in criticizing Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea.
FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION IS FOR COMMERCIAL SHIPS ….. U.S. IS THE AGGRESSIVE PARTY BY BUILDING A PROVOCATIVE ARMADA OF AIRCRAFT CARRIER, DESTROYER ESCORTS, GUIDED MISSILE CRUISERS, WARSHIPS, FRIGATES, SUBMARINES, SUPER HORNET FIGHTER JETS AROUND CHINA ….. AFTER ALL, U.S. STARTED THIS WHOLE CHARADE ….. U.S. PARKED THEIR CARRIER BATTLE GROUP ON THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, DURING THE KOREAN WAR, AND LATER DURING THE VIETNAM WAR ….. TO INTIMIDATE CHINA ….. U.S. LOST BOTH WARS JUST THE SAME ….. NOW THERE IS A REVERSAL OF ROLE ….. U.S. NEEDS WAR TO SUSTAIN ITS MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX ….. WITHOUT WAR, U.S. ECONOMY WILL COLLAPSE ….. HEHE
Well said, all were big fools. American got the real president America needs. Trump is trying to fix and clean the messy government he inherited from previous fool presidents… Go go go Trump, never mind those critics.They can not figure out what really the big problems and issues.
The south china sea DOES NOT ENTIRELY BELONGS TO CHINA
free 4 all,jah RASTAFARI!
Richard Truong I figured it out why you see yourself as a smurf. Like Chinese they are controlled by a fatherfigure (Papa Smurf = Xi) and also there aren’t many smurfettes to smurfs. A consequence of both sets of females prefering something larger.
Ivor Large True that. Hahaha.
Wood Wu let the fight begin, I say.
I find it strange that viets are actually siding with china over scs. Was it because the yankees beat up viets in the past? C’mon brainless sinophile viets s**ts here, you ok with china claiming your country’s marine economic zones? Or are you traitors or what? Personally, I find showdown between china and usa to be good. the world pop is too big and unsustainable and a reset is timely. Cheers 🙂
So how many of your fellow countrymen did you kill during the "American War?"
Ivor Large
Back then, Ivar, China was inflicted with a serious case of IBS. As such, she was unexpectedly caught with her pants down. No more however. She had since taken some iBGuard. She’s now fully functional again. And,when she’s back on her feet again, as she is now, she’s unlikely to take NO for an answer as she did back then.
.
Ne Pacific…..I am sure you did not understand the term "freedom of navigation". It is a legal term having specific legal meaning, not any sailing or traveling or passingby. When the US conducted freedom of navigation in the SCS, the US was trying to show China the legal meaning. Unfortunately China as well as you people did not get it. The legal meaning is: the SCS belongs to the international community; it does not belong to China. Therefore the country that most DOES NOT need freedom of navigation in the SCS is China.
Ken Nguyen, if and when China allows Overflights and freedom of passage in the South China Sea, China shows to the world the SCS is a common property, not a Chinese property. As a matter of fact, China has been doing this through out history and such "doing" has led to the arbitral tribunal’s ruling that the SCS has never been a Chinese territory. If China continues doing this in the future, China will lose big.
To do the right thing China must start immediately to disallow and ban all overflight and freedom of navigation in the SCS, which, presumably, is a Chinese territorial sea.
Maybe you don’t know why I said so. My reason for saying so came from the international law UNCLOS, which provides freedom of navigation in the high seas only. Again, if and when China allows freedom of navigation in the SCS, China is telling the world the SCS is a common property.
Perry Kamath
Perry, I hear that cattle’s “will cry with tears from their eyes when herded into the slaughter house”, is that right?
Course, along with other livestocks, cattles are raised for food, produce, hence ethically acceptable for us to butchure and kill https://youtu.be/BYnKll5PD3A while canines are NOT, right?
I wonder sometimes, Perry, who is it that is responsible for dictating or establishing the rule that cattle’s, hogs, poultry, moose, deer, rabbit, crabs and fish are OK and ethical kills while canines are not?
Ivor Large
Maybe in your wet dream. H fact is nobody in Asia would die for the US Evil Empire.
Comrade, I am going to fine you 0.5RMB and put you on the watch list for revealing the CCP’s future claims on SE Asia and Australia, as well as the W coast of the US.
All those past glories…. while you can’t find a gf because they all prefer gweilos.
No you have it…. BRI and SCS. Sideshows. China will be strangled by the Malacca Strait and by Jap & Taiwain…
Fuma Quimono Unliek Xi or the CCP who is/are not elected
I agree, time for China to remove the PLA from it’s colonies like Tibet and E Turkmenistan.
That’s a very strong accusation to make about Xi and China, I suggest you withdraw it unless you want to lose marks on your social credit system……