From the conclusion of the Second World War on, the United States Navy has enjoyed unchallenged freedom to operate throughout the Pacific, including off the shores of China, a reality that Beijing has had little choice but to accept.
Those days may be over sooner than many think. In fact, according to one well-regarded Australian security analyst, China may begin to exert control over the wide swath of territory it claims in the South China Sea within a year.
The prediction, made this week in Washington by the director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Peter Jennings, was quite specific. It went so far as to say the Chinese military will likely close off air and sea space to hold exercises in international waters. Though recognized as international waters, China has claimed (nearly) the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory.
US and Australian government officials and other security analysts who spoke with The Sydney Morning Herald, which reported the comments on Friday, all said the scenario was plausible. Some thought it likely.
“Even though this would be presented as a temporary measure – a few days, perhaps a week – it would be the end of freedom of navigation and overflight if it went unchallenged,” the article asserted.
“It’s right to expect some kind of testing by China to see how far they can go, to find the limits. You have to be unwaveringly consistent and firm,” Michele Flournoy, a former top Pentagon policy adviser was quoted as saying.
“China’s pattern of behavior is like they’re boiling a frog – keep the temperature high enough to change the frog from live to one you can eat, but not with any extreme changes so that the frog jumps out of the pot,” she said.
Flournoy was a participant at the Australian-American Leadership Dialogue, where Jennings made his comments.
Former Trump political strategist Steve Bannon, also speaking to The Sydney Morning Herald, made his own prediction – about how Trump would respond.
“He understands that the central geopolitical issue of the century is China versus the West,” Bannon said. “He will not let the South China Sea go uncontested. He’s been consistent on China for 30 years. He understands China is the main event. He’s not going to back off.”
While there was a prolonged lull in related tensions between Washington and Beijing following Trump’s election, the temperature has risen in recent months as Chinese moves to deploy weapons on contested islands have been met with US freedom of navigation operations.
Analysts saw initial reticence on the part of the Trump administration as a sign that China’s militarization of the South China Sea had taken a back seat to the crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Following the buildup of momentum for a diplomatic resolution to North Korea, the gloves came off for the US president on the issue of trade, and the Pentagon has been more vocal in criticizing Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea.
ALL REST OF THE COUNTIRED TO DO IS TO STOP DOING BUSINESS WITH CHINA, AND CHINESE CAN SWEEM IN THE SOUTH CHINA POOL ALL THEY WANT
on that day when you challenge the USA.It will determine who is the real BOSS.Think twice they are so powerfull.Power that secretely hidden to their enemies.
Oh, we would like to see how China’s toy fighter jet are shot down by the real top-of-the-line fighters like F-35, F-22, and F-18s. Communist China has no right to impose its will on international waters.
Ken Nguyen you r right.America has lost its moral high ground with its hegemonic design and mass murders of inocent population in south America, iraq,libya,syria balkans.Now with their debt Their war mongring is on the rise.History teached that empires devour themselves
Sorry, I am Cato, crying out; not Trump, who wouldn’t even know where Carthage is. And China is today’s Carthage.
Ephesians 6:12
For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.
Say again? China occopied our islands. Let us out it this way….our island is within our exclusive economic zone and the u.n in our favor for the island is so far away in Mainland china. Now they militarized it if you sre in our side what would you feel….chinas 9 dash line … is it ok for you just bcoz they say they say owned it although its far from thier shoreline is it ok? .put yourself in our situation if you will just accept it.
#Flora de la Sinensis
Heck, I guess if a community chooses to be cannibals, we should be ok with that, right?
Look, even in dog-eating China, canines are not raised as food, BUT AS MAN’S BEST FRIEND. As playing pets…
So when they end up on the dinner table, it’s the most callous, heinous and backstabbing barbaric act one can ever do against a friend.
And that’s why it shocks civilized people.
Fuma Quimono u dumb ass……China is already taking the Philippines more and more every day…..who you gonna beg to help your dumb ass then…..those fools saved your ass from the Japanese, but you forget that so stupidly arrogantly…….
Wood Wu and now china is not only taking islands from many Nations in Asia, but is TAKING BY FORCE Philippine territorial waters and refusing to let filipinos fish in their own waters…..and has threatened military action to the Philippines for simply complaining about it….Not to mention the face that China literally stood philiPhili islands that the world courts said was wrong……and now that island is a military base…….what is next ????that’s right, you think China will protect other countries, isn’t that your belief, Ken?
USA did not sign the UN Convention of the Sea but feels it is its duty to implement. Western Rule of Law is rule of law if it is to their advantage, but they will invade Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Sudan, Chad, Panama, etc outside the rule of law, without the countries’ invitation to participate. They created the White Helmet to fake chemical attacks, Ai-Queda and ISIL to create havoc allowing them a pretext to come in to "save" the countries from "terrorists".
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USA becomes the only country to use atomic bombs, the only country to test the radiation of the hydrogen bomb on real people (Marshal Island), the only country that depopulate a whole island, forcing the people of Diego Garcia to vacate their land and homes to Mauritius without compensation, the only country that practices MIGHT is RIGHT, and kidnap legally elected leaders of other countries to be tried in the USA.
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It started 11 wars, started Arab Spring, caused the breakout of the Soviet Union, and other European states, and killed millions, displaced millions, make millions disabled, diseased and toutured countless.
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The move to multipolar world will help check this adventurism.
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Hope Russia, India, Brazil, Africa and China become powerful enough to stand up to these American cowboys.
Ivor Large many countries in Asia will fight for still being part of the scs, like Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Borneo etc.
Your totally wrong https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea
China will close off SCS and deny the US Navy, Japanese, Australia, French, British Royal Navy etc the right to exerce their right of navigational passage? Pray, how will China achieve that? With two tiny "aircraft carriers"? What a load of crap!
#Ken Nguyen
Majority of the Chinese don’t eat dog? Whom are you kidding?
Fact is dog meat is common everywhere in China, especially with common/ordinary/low class people. And since majority of Chinese are ordinary, conclusively, dog meat is their preference particularly during winter periods as they believe dog meat keeps them warm!
Giyera na sa SCS para magkaalaman na