From the conclusion of the Second World War on, the United States Navy has enjoyed unchallenged freedom to operate throughout the Pacific, including off the shores of China, a reality that Beijing has had little choice but to accept.
Those days may be over sooner than many think. In fact, according to one well-regarded Australian security analyst, China may begin to exert control over the wide swath of territory it claims in the South China Sea within a year.
The prediction, made this week in Washington by the director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Peter Jennings, was quite specific. It went so far as to say the Chinese military will likely close off air and sea space to hold exercises in international waters. Though recognized as international waters, China has claimed (nearly) the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory.
US and Australian government officials and other security analysts who spoke with The Sydney Morning Herald, which reported the comments on Friday, all said the scenario was plausible. Some thought it likely.
“Even though this would be presented as a temporary measure – a few days, perhaps a week – it would be the end of freedom of navigation and overflight if it went unchallenged,” the article asserted.
“It’s right to expect some kind of testing by China to see how far they can go, to find the limits. You have to be unwaveringly consistent and firm,” Michele Flournoy, a former top Pentagon policy adviser was quoted as saying.
“China’s pattern of behavior is like they’re boiling a frog – keep the temperature high enough to change the frog from live to one you can eat, but not with any extreme changes so that the frog jumps out of the pot,” she said.
Flournoy was a participant at the Australian-American Leadership Dialogue, where Jennings made his comments.
Former Trump political strategist Steve Bannon, also speaking to The Sydney Morning Herald, made his own prediction – about how Trump would respond.
“He understands that the central geopolitical issue of the century is China versus the West,” Bannon said. “He will not let the South China Sea go uncontested. He’s been consistent on China for 30 years. He understands China is the main event. He’s not going to back off.”
While there was a prolonged lull in related tensions between Washington and Beijing following Trump’s election, the temperature has risen in recent months as Chinese moves to deploy weapons on contested islands have been met with US freedom of navigation operations.
Analysts saw initial reticence on the part of the Trump administration as a sign that China’s militarization of the South China Sea had taken a back seat to the crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Following the buildup of momentum for a diplomatic resolution to North Korea, the gloves came off for the US president on the issue of trade, and the Pentagon has been more vocal in criticizing Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea.
Keep on dreaming about the glorious past, because your young ladies seem to prefer gweilos.
Perry Kamath
Very few people eat dog meat in China and there hace been campaigns to stop this practice. But you would not care about the truth because you are a racist troll pretending to be an Indian.
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Let’s reflect a bit:
Just recently, through CNN, (or, the very voice of the swamp so to speak,) they were beating the Vladimir Putin drums of war saying Vladimir Putin is a KGB monster who INVADED Crimea — a region historically Russian and fought over only between Russia and Turkey, no one else, through history.
Well, I wonder, I wonder about the logics of that and other American spins and charges and I ask these questions :
“Don’t they ever question what, Operation Desert Storm; the Kosovo War; forced no fly zone(s) against sovereign states; Operation Enduring Freedom; the ridding of Mubarak of Egypt; Quadaffi’s Libya, al Assad’s Syria; and the echoes of war drums against Iran, not to mention the Korean War, Vietnam War, and everything else in between is all about?”
Are they trying to tell us that these, essentially, are no more but secretive Stormy Daniel type love affairs between those of the swamp and of the nation’s mentioned in the above?
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According to Admital Zeng He sea maps and records, he had hoisted Chinese Emperor’s flag on Maldives Island west of India and also on Mauritius. So let US and others better be cautious in challeging CCP!
Are you afraid you will be defranchised to sell dog meat from China if you don’t praise them!
How china will challenge US supremacy in the South China Sea, impact the Taiwan which is considered by China as her renegade province is a protectorates of USA and its own home?funny
Sure fools like U who elected them ….and Trump another one coming down soon !!!
Comrade, Japan also conquored part of the Middle Kingdom, so I don’t like our chances of claiming Australia, the Japs might come back to Nanking (making your Grannie very happy)
I will ask the CCP to supply you with an Engrish version
There is a chinese saying: Don’t see the coffins, don’t know when to cry.
when the dust of the SCS struggle is settled, those who are beating the drums of war should be hauled before the ICC and be tried as war criminals according to the Nuremberg and tokyo war trials conventions.
Too many false flags wars were initiated by the empire and its poodles’ echo chambers without those beating the drums of war being held to account. The rest of the peace loving world should set up a simon wiesenthal like center to go after these war mongers to put them behind bars for life.
Correction – it will be an excellent news since it will be the end of colonial mentality troublemakers’ freedom of sowing discord and provoking conflicts in South China sea. LoL
Same comments from the same group of people, reinforce each other year in year out on the China threat. They love to sail and fly their weapons as near China as possible. LOL
Love you dear bear
Delenda sinica est.
The Middle Kingdom will back down in dealing with the 45th President of the United States——–after the last four horrible sell outs,# 44, #43, #42, and the biggest sellout #41 I think the Chinese do not know how to deal with a REAL AMERICAN LEADER———since the last four Presidents were not LEADERS———–BUT FOOLS!!
Abserb spending (to bankrupcy) on steriods in an attempt to project empire. Going the way of the Romans and nothing can stop that…
No-one (except me, lol) ever seems to mention that the one country that most needs freedom of navigation in the SCS is China, and that the US has run at least one naval exercise denying the Malacca Strait to shipping. Not to mention the unknown number of US missile subs in the area. I have no idea what steps China will take, but it is highly reasonable for it to want to be able to ensure freedom of navigation for its own ships bringing oil from the Middle East.
Why should USA be supreme in China’s backyard? Overflights and freedom of passage in the South China Sea will be protected by China, not subjected to arbitrary US military operations and blockages by US ships.
At least the risk of collision of merchant shipping by US ships and missing MH flights will be reduced or prevented!
The Middle Kingdom is not aggressive. The only reason we need 2 aircraft carriers is to deal with water-born threats from Tibetans, Uighurs and students.