The time has come for the United States to rebuild and rethink its approach to Taiwan’s defense and security. China is becoming too provocative and aggressive, not only in the South China Sea, but also in the Taiwan straits, where it is starting to encroach on well-established red lines. It has also been carrying out military flights around the Taiwanese periphery, then heading as far as Japan, sending a message to both countries. It is not a message of peace and cooperation.
Over the years – and no matter under what administration – support for Taiwan in the United States has been, at best, mediocre. The supply of mostly obsolete defense hardware, the long delays in providing equipment, the stilted and mostly non-functional military-to-military relationship and America’s reluctance to respond to Chinese provocations: these factors have left Taiwan largely on its own.
I was in Taiwan during the 1996 Taiwan Straits Crisis, when Chinese missiles and landing ships were conducting an exercise that directly threatened Taiwan. I remember just how long it took before Bill Clinton finally sent US aircraft carriers to the area, forcing China to stand down. It was frightening, and a very close call. Taiwan had very little chance without US support – even then, when its air force and navy were stronger than now. (I was part of a three-man unofficial delegation that included former CIA head James Woolsey and Admiral Bud Edney. Later I would serve for five years as a Commissioner on the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.)
But Washington hardly changed its ways toward Taiwan after 1996. Most of Washington’s inaction derives from the perceived “imperative” to have good relations with China. China was regarded as an emerging power and as a huge market for the United States, while Taiwan was seen as an unneeded irritant, impeding ties to China.
At least to a degree, the worm has turned, because China is no longer “emerging,” and it is no longer just the big country that, just a few years ago, the Pentagon regarded as 20 years behind the United States in military terms. Even back in 2011, when the Pentagon made that assessment, its conclusion was largely political and not at all the reality. It was a way to ignore reality and leave Taiwan and other allies, including Japan, in the lurch.
With power-politics changing in the region and China having emerged as an aggressive player with advanced military technology, the US has to significantly modify its behavior pattern toward Taiwan
But the appearance of China’s stealth aircraft, the Chengdu J-20, in the South China Sea, China’s aggressive takeover and militarization of islands it does not own, and increasing threats to American allies, especially Taiwan and Japan, has changed the game. And, while the China lobby in the State Department, with its long-held proclivity for appeasement, has kept the policy line without change, the truth is that the geopolitics have changed. In short, if the US wants to play a future role in the Pacific, it had better rethink its policy now.
What is Washington going to do with regard to Taiwan? Wait until disaster strikes? Behave as we are doing in Syria, as the Syrian and Russian air forces decimate the population of eastern Ghouta? Imagine the humanitarian disaster in Taiwan if China were to attack.
The US has to put in place a deterrence program that works for Taiwan and supports US interests. There are, at least, four important steps – three hardware-related and one policy step – that are urgently needed.
On the hardware front, the US has to give Taiwan a real capability to challenge both the J-20 and Su-35 jets that China is using provocatively. This means Taiwan needs aircraft that can match these challenges. Either that means providing the F-35 to Taiwan, or another stealth aircraft that can do the same job. Boeing has proposed the F-15SE, or Silent Eagle, which is intended as a stealthed-up version of the F-15 that could use many of the same electronic and countermeasure capabilities as the F-35.
Washington should facilitate providing one or the other to Taiwan and do so on an urgent basis. The existing F-16 upgrade program underway in Taiwan with US support is important but it falls way short of the mark as a deterrent to China. The game should not be left entirely in China’s hands, and China needs to understand that any air attack may fail and undermine China’s claims to area-wide superpower status.
Taiwan also needs modern submarines. It hardly suffices for Taiwan to be running two broken-down 1985-era Dutch submarines which are uncompetitive with China’s growing fleet of nuclear and conventionally powered submarines. And if it is true that Germany transferred U-214 submarine technology to China, then the picture is worse and far more dangerous.
Over the years, the United States has promised to help Taiwan acquire modern submarines, but such promises have turned out to be an unfortunate boondoggle, one that stirred controversy in Taiwan and never brought anything useful to fruition. What the administration should have done then, and can still do today, is to buy submarines from Europe, put US systems in them and either sell or lease them to Taiwan. The Germans, French, Italians and Swedes make first class diesel-electric submarines with air-independent propulsion (AIP). These would make it hard for China’s submarines to choke off Taiwan.
I remember just how long it took before Bill Clinton finally sent US aircraft carriers to the area, forcing China to stand down. It was frightening
The idea that Taiwan will build its own modern submarine is a noble one, but there are many challenges and no assurance of success because Taiwan lacks the design teams, experience and technology developed over decades in Europe and the United States. Furthermore, the projected ten years it would take to even have a prototype of a local version is too long. Surely Washington can and must lend a hand.
Thirdly, Taiwan needs better and more numerous missile defenses. The PAC-3 system is simply inadequate against top-of-the-line Chinese ballistic missiles. THAAD or SM-3 are the kind of defenses Taiwan needs, and not only should the US offer them but it should fix them so they work right. What we have seen – forget the excuses – is that neither THAAD or SM-3 are up to snuff and need to be upgraded. Probably the kinetic hit to “kill” interceptor warhead needs a rethink. No one really is talking about this weakness in Washington, largely because not many people really believe in missile defense. But it is needed and the upgrade should be a top agenda item in Washington. (Basically, hit to kill is ineffective against MIRV’d missiles with decoys and an area kill warhead should replace it.)
Lastly, the US relationship to Taiwan, which has been improved a little around the edges, actually needs radical change. Today the US should be working out protocols to be able to use Taiwanese air bases in any crisis, or for that matter for any issue requiring US emergency basing in the region, whether China-related or otherwise. With the right protocols like in place, China’s civilian and military leaders will immediately understand that the US is for sure coming to Taiwan’s defense if China gets more aggressive. Having a physical presence is more valuable than a written mutual defense agreement, although a strong mutual defense treaty would also buttress the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) which is Taiwan’s safeguard against China, remembering that it was really the Congressional answer to the Nixon-Kissinger deal abandoning Taiwan for a China relationship.
In the current circumstances, with power-politics changing in the region and China having emerged as an aggressive player with advanced military technology, the US has to significantly modify its behavior pattern toward Taiwan by rethinking how to defend it and by upgrading and helping to rebuild Taiwan’s defenses.
Any American administration can count on support from Congress for proposals like those outlined here. The real issue for Washington is moving the State Department away from a pro-China position (one that is also reflected in the Pentagon and National Security Council to a degree) to one that sees the military and strategic challenge ahead from China and responds to it correctly. President Trump needs to seize the initiative, because no one else will.
Tuan Q Nguyen
I just hope you are Chinese like me with family members in the Mainland, in Taiwan and in fact all over the world. It helps to do well in international trade that way.
But if you are not Chinese, cannot speak or write Chinese and think in Chinese first before you make decisions on everything in daily life, kindly refer to what I wrote to Vikram Reddy.
But if you are Chinese from Vietnam, and still have family in the Mainland and n Taiwan, I suggest you read up the Tao Te Ching, about moving like water! Why worry about a solution now. Maintain the status quo. Things would sort itself out for that is the ‘yin and yang’ of life – enemies one day friends the next. Let the future generation sort out the problem. After 5000+ years as family, what is the fracking hurry for a divorce because a whiteman says so? Are you a ‘banana’ or Chinese.
I want you to know that I am not a Communist, and in fact my grandfather was a Kuomintang member. But I do not believe in two Chinas. There can only be one China. Tell me can there be two Israels?
Vince Cheok Dude, Australians speak English, Americans speak English. are they consider themselves as Englishmen? NO WAY. They could be good friends because they share the same democratic values. Otherwise, goodbye and never again.
Vince Cheok Wow "Taoist, Confucianist and Buddhist like the rest of us". Chinese communists give a damn shit about religions and that is the fact. Only Taiwan has respect for freedom of religion among the two parties. Only Taiwan allows these kind of spiritualities to thrive. As long as Communist China do not adopt the democratic way of life as it is in Taiwan, reunification is only a wildest dream and it is fading into the background with China’s aggressive moves to squeeze Taiwan diplomatically. What kind of family is this? It it ever happens then it will be a rape, a forced marriage at best. Taiwanese do not see themselves as Chinese. They have become better democracy loving citizens. Chinese are way below this benchmark. So just dream..and dream on.
Mark Niio
And this is what you decided for Taiwan? LoL…
Yi-Hsin Huang Taiwan should go nuclear and build up very strong missile force. Commies understand only strength, appeasement does not work.
Erik Joseph
I am actually in KL. I am Malaysian.
And you? You are a spy in China for the Americans?
We are watching you! CCTV everywhere in China and face recognition technology too!
What a brilliant piece by the so so smart Mr Bryen———–send all our advanced weaponry to Taiwan——–and then within a matter of months of these very sophisticated weapons arriving on the island nation——-the Chinese goverment sends a group of the intelligent agents to go over the weapons with a fine tooth comb and go back to the mainland with all the plans of these sophisticated weapons———-and YES someone in the Taiwanese Government has allowed this to happen. I bet this has happened countless times BUT the so so smart Mr Bryen does not care if American state secrets are stolen——–he is just interested in the money made from selling the weapons————–that is a small mind for sure!!!
So Mr. Bryen has been involved in dipolmacy and China matters for over 40 years. For all those years of experiences, and you still hold just juvenile assessment of the world situation, have you been day dreaming and sleeping walking all the while? Your views and ideas reflect very poorly of the caliber of America’s corp of diplomatic hacks, just as many other so-called ‘reputable’ hands such as Biden, Shumer, Kerry, McCain, Rice, Clinton, etc have been. No wonder pros like Lavrov gained reputation on account of dealing with these midgets.
Vince Cheok A one Mr Cheok who associated with the University of Adelaide. It would seem that the Australians have another spy on their hands. They really need to take a firmer line on these people. Heaven knows the PRC regime wouldn’t be nearly so tolerant of spies & saboteurs in its midst. And yet we in the West allow for PRC saboteurs to abuse our liberalism and our moral obligation to be good hosts and treat our guests generously!
Ariel Chiang
Unfilial boy! Ask your parents and your grandparents whether they are Chinese or Taiwanese? Ask them whether there is more than one China?
Stupid boy! Ask a North Korean or a South Korean whether if they do not wish to have politics and ideology disappear and that they is one Korea!
We are Chinese because we are one tribe and we have a common heritage that we practise daily not because we are all humans!
With your view the whole world should be one country and we all walk and talk the same!
So why do you walk and talk Chinese?
THAAD is designed against ballistic missiles with minimum range of 1000-5000 km range, not 200-500km range that TW needs to be worried about. But unlike the case in South Korea. I think CCP will only pretend to oppose installing THAAD in Taiwan. Secretly they might wish to help Taiwan pays for it (of course we already know Uncle Trump wouldn’t spend American money to defend Taiwan), it’s only one tenth of ROC total military budget, no cost overrun, promised! Docs, software, even tons of spare parts right ready under Chinese eyes and hands. SWEET~~~
Sooner China realises Taiwan can’t be brought into their delusional one China thing, it will better off for all the parties concern. Absolute majority of Taiwanese don’t relate to China anymore. They want nothing to do with China now. They have moved on. CCP China’s delusional freak dream of one China needs a place in long gone era.
Cut the crap. Taiwan is not China. And never will be. Majority of Taiwanese don’t identify with Chinese anymore. It’s a long gone era. No matter how much you whine here wouldn’t change the outcome.
Ariel Chiang
"…Why should I?…" For survival, maybe?
It would be a PLAAF wet dream if ROCAF gets F-35. It would probably takes ZERO days for US technical secrets to leak to Beijing. And even a non-zero chance CCP can bribe a ROC pilot to fly a fully functional F-35 to the mainland. There are more than one hundred mainland airports within 75 km from TW airspace. Giving TW less than 3 minutes to notice and respond to a defection.
Root problem for the Pan-Greens (Taiwanese) is that they expect the military to defend them against China, but ROC officers are dominated by Chinese. A lot of them are easy target for CCP to bribe for intels or even defections if bullets start flying.
Vince Cheok If your argument stood, then there was no any other country but we all African. Do you think Singaporean Chinese becuase they used simplified Chinese and they have Chinese names? Do you think Donald Trump is German becuase his families moved to US in the 19th?
Ladies and Gents here come the voice of: Jewish Empire of USA
You just perfectly described why free people, regardless of others perception of the shithole they crawl out of every morning, have so much work left to do.
Zionist war monger Stephen Bryen stirring shit, dishing out fake news again. Aren’t we all glad that Pax Americana is coming to an end, having caused millions upon millions of death and destruction in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, and so many other parts of the world? This Zionist should be grateful to the Russians. A hell of a lot of Jews would have died if not for the Russians winning against fascist Hitler. These days, fascism emanate not from Germany but from Israel, and its supporting war mongers in America.
Taiwan is not part of China’s family. China is needs to stop constantly harassing Taiwan. That is why Taiwan needs to spend more on our military and have our fences up. Learn to respect your neighbor before spouting your nonsense.