The recent severe earthquake in Iran near the Iraqi border reminded the world that the Middle East is subject to physical upheavals. As if to mimic nature, geo-political and social upheavals are following at a dizzying pace. At the moment (and next week things may have changed again) three unfolding developments are creating new realities for statesmen, soldiers, diplomats, businessmen and intelligence operatives to deal with as best they can, which is not very good.
The first was the unwise referendum on independence in Iraqi Kurdistan, followed by the shameful abandonment of the Kurds by the Western World (except for Israel). This circumstance, coupled with the defeat of the ISIS “Caliphate”, removed the last two impediments to Iran spreading its geo-political sphere of influence through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to the Mediterranean, a millennial goal of successive Persian empires for three thousand years. The last time Persia succeeded in this goal was at the expense of the Eastern Roman Empire in the seventh century C.E., followed rapidly by its reconquest by Constantinople and shortly thereafter the defeat of both empires by the newly-Islamicized Arabs.
Secondly, the precipitous decline of US influence and the simultaneous rise of Russian influence in the region. Russia has dreamed of and plotted and fought for a position in the eastern Mediterranean for centuries. It now, for the first time in history, has it. The Black Sea has been turned into a Russian lake. Bits of Georgia and Ukraine have been taken over, including the highly-strategic Crimean Peninsula. Turkey has been thoroughly cowed and Russia has triumphantly entered the eastern Mediterranean with naval and air bases and a vigorous and successful intervention in the Syrian civil war on the side of the odious Assad regime. Russian hegemony has just been symbolized by successive meetings by Putin with Assad, Rouhani, and Erdogan, symbolically held not in Moscow but in Sochi, on the Black Sea. In the meantime, pre-occupied with the North Korean threat, the US continues its military slog through the morass of Afghanistan and Iraq, although it is entirely unclear what it hopes to achieve in either country.
Finally, the astonishing developments in Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), is simultaneously consolidating his own branch of the al Saud tribal complex, conducting an anti-corruption campaign resulting in the arrest of dozens of princes and businessmen, liberalizing the medieval Wahhabi sect of Sunni Islam including the detention of many religious leaders, planning hyper-ambitious plans of economic/scientific/technological progress, and improving the position of women in Saudi society. And now, the unconfirmed report in The New York Times that the Saudis have devised a truly workable Israeli-Palestinian peace plan and given Palestinian Authority president Mahmud Abbas two months to approve it or to resign.
As if that were not enough, MbS, who is also minister of defense, is conducting a war in Yemen and a diplomatic/political/economic boycott of Qatar, in association with Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt. This is an agenda that is beyond daunting, and is a multi-pronged attempt to confront Iran and its terrorist proxies, and assure the continuance, stability and prosperity of a new Saudi Arabia.
Of course, all this may be temporary. Russia and Iran may have a falling-out; the Turkish regime may collapse; MbS may fail in carrying out his plans, as is certainly the case so far in Yemen and apparently in Qatar. The Israeli factor also is not to be overlooked. Iran is an existential threat to Israel and the southern Sunni arc countries are real or potential allies, formal or informal. Iranian bases in Syria will not be tolerated and if established will be attacked militarily. Relations with Russia are surprisingly quite good, one reason being that Putin, the quintessential realist, has a healthy respect for Israeli military, security and intelligence capabilities, which he wants on his side, not arrayed against him.
But this makes him hostage to actions which may be taken by Iran, or more likely by its proxies such as Hezbollah. Any outbreak of open hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah would place the Russians in the awkward position of having to choose between Iran and Israel.
The one thing we know nothing about is the future, but with the new developments, added to the already toxic brew in the Middle East since the so-called “Arab Spring,” prediction is rendered all but impossible. Even the greatest of the Biblical prophets would quail at proclaiming what is going to take place, although the Book of Ezequiel comes uncomfortably close.
Neil Chase New kids but with an old ass on the Zionist block,hahahoho
The worst western geopolitical nightmare is just beginning. Not only that Putin is now the Pivot of the whole Levant of finishing the Shia crescent into the Mediteranean using Iran as one pincer sidekick, Putin can now complete the Pivot of Eurasia by bringing onside the gate-keeper of the Black sea as his other pincer side-kick.
When there was calmness in the Middle East (albeit this is quite a long forgotten and seldom scenario) … powerful countries who have vested interests have tried to stir up the situation by promoting conflict and war (through various underground means) to gain advantage over one another. One biggest factor that drive them towards pushing to the situation of conflict is the existence of huge deposit of oil & gas and the sale of military hardware. The existence of global strategy whose core base is hunger for dominance was, is and always will be the main reason for continuing war & conflict in the middle eastern region. Religion seems to be the root cause … but the scenario has changes its color and even became complicated with the presence of nuclear arms. My 5-cents worth of opinion.
Albert Moore, are you working for the BBC ? Or a friend of Alan Friedman ?
The Ezra-helies and Iran are already shooting at each other and Russia isn’t getting involved. The Ruskies are smart, they want their port and the Syrian government to survive. If the Ezra-hellies can keep their nose out of Russia’s way and not hurt Assad too much, they won’t mess with each other and the Ezra-hellies know this. I just can’t see how Tel Aviv can stop Iran from building a base in Syrian territory?
A missle shield will be established and Ezra will lose a lot of planes and pilots.
Nutsandyahoo has to see the writing on the wall.
the writer sounds American with probably Israeli links and very much biased . In short an idiot
John Sampson THEN why it was necessary for eradicating natural playing field of the bacteria’s, virusus, carriers, like small pox, malaria, plague, coleras,are being eliminated which otherwise were the balancing killers of nature to sustain this planet earth from one species dominanance, which ultimately will surely make this planet void of living beings. That too in time again & again to repeat the same for evolutions to be born & dead, without any potential exploration of human consciousness how far & limit it can develope from humans to GOD? As we are also children’s of God, but will never be the father God!
It’s a new stand taken boldly just the way Arab nation’s have taken several bold stands
US makes a great mistake by declaring Jurusalem as Israel’s capital. The punishment after this will be swift because Allah Himself will take action like what He did to Abrahah and his army when Abrahah trying to capture holy Mecca!
You gave right words it brother. Truth
Ray Silitonga the middle east was extremely prosperous for the past 3000 years all this mayhem started when Britain’s Colonial bigwigs Cecil Rhodes, Alfred milner Nathaniel Rothschild hijacked the region during their ww1 theatre. You better pick some good history books then jump in with an argument
Mihir Nandy from where I am, looking at the world, there is not much ‘civilized, advanced human knowledge, get togetherness as one world village of consciousness’. History has been repeating itself for aeons! What you’re searching for is Nirvana! Nothing wrong with that, but you will not find it on planet earth. It is a concept, an idea, and human beings are not that endowed with the intellectual capacity to strive for an idyllic existence. Wars yes, peace and co-existence, no!
Yeah mate you have written all thanks alot for that…. Bloody American Israeli propaganda basturds…
"Bits of Georgia and Ukraine have been taken over, including the highly-strategic Crimean Peninsula."
Of course Crimea is strategic. That’s exactly why NATO wanted it! Did you people really think that the Russian were going to sit around twittling their thumbs while NATO carted off with Sebastopol? Without their naval base there, Russia basically wouldn’t have a surface fleet anymore. That’s their one port that isn’t frozen half the year.
"And now, the unconfirmed report in The New York Times that the Saudis have devised a truly workable Israeli-Palestinian peace plan and given Palestinian Authority president Mahmud Abbas two months to approve it or to resign."
KSA’s plan for Palestine is basically just to hold a gun to their head and force them to surrender to Israel. They want the whole Palestinian problem to simply disappear. But that’ll just drive Hamas back into the Syrian/Iranian camp.
Corruption is a world-wide problem. May the peoples of the world take heart from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Mihir Nandy wow, you are in league of your own…
Neil Chase the same was true about Apartheid.
You just wrote all I had in mind . Bless you
Keep in mind that there are a million Arab citizens of Israel. Therefore, Jerusalem is their capital, too. Polls show that most Arabs in the surrounding areas would rather be Israeli citizens than live under the PA or Hamas. The EU thinks it can gain influence from its divide and conquer tactics. That is a strategy for losers.