The recent severe earthquake in Iran near the Iraqi border reminded the world that the Middle East is subject to physical upheavals. As if to mimic nature, geo-political and social upheavals are following at a dizzying pace. At the moment (and next week things may have changed again) three unfolding developments are creating new realities for statesmen, soldiers, diplomats, businessmen and intelligence operatives to deal with as best they can, which is not very good.
The first was the unwise referendum on independence in Iraqi Kurdistan, followed by the shameful abandonment of the Kurds by the Western World (except for Israel). This circumstance, coupled with the defeat of the ISIS “Caliphate”, removed the last two impediments to Iran spreading its geo-political sphere of influence through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to the Mediterranean, a millennial goal of successive Persian empires for three thousand years. The last time Persia succeeded in this goal was at the expense of the Eastern Roman Empire in the seventh century C.E., followed rapidly by its reconquest by Constantinople and shortly thereafter the defeat of both empires by the newly-Islamicized Arabs.
Secondly, the precipitous decline of US influence and the simultaneous rise of Russian influence in the region. Russia has dreamed of and plotted and fought for a position in the eastern Mediterranean for centuries. It now, for the first time in history, has it. The Black Sea has been turned into a Russian lake. Bits of Georgia and Ukraine have been taken over, including the highly-strategic Crimean Peninsula. Turkey has been thoroughly cowed and Russia has triumphantly entered the eastern Mediterranean with naval and air bases and a vigorous and successful intervention in the Syrian civil war on the side of the odious Assad regime. Russian hegemony has just been symbolized by successive meetings by Putin with Assad, Rouhani, and Erdogan, symbolically held not in Moscow but in Sochi, on the Black Sea. In the meantime, pre-occupied with the North Korean threat, the US continues its military slog through the morass of Afghanistan and Iraq, although it is entirely unclear what it hopes to achieve in either country.
Finally, the astonishing developments in Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), is simultaneously consolidating his own branch of the al Saud tribal complex, conducting an anti-corruption campaign resulting in the arrest of dozens of princes and businessmen, liberalizing the medieval Wahhabi sect of Sunni Islam including the detention of many religious leaders, planning hyper-ambitious plans of economic/scientific/technological progress, and improving the position of women in Saudi society. And now, the unconfirmed report in The New York Times that the Saudis have devised a truly workable Israeli-Palestinian peace plan and given Palestinian Authority president Mahmud Abbas two months to approve it or to resign.
As if that were not enough, MbS, who is also minister of defense, is conducting a war in Yemen and a diplomatic/political/economic boycott of Qatar, in association with Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt. This is an agenda that is beyond daunting, and is a multi-pronged attempt to confront Iran and its terrorist proxies, and assure the continuance, stability and prosperity of a new Saudi Arabia.
Of course, all this may be temporary. Russia and Iran may have a falling-out; the Turkish regime may collapse; MbS may fail in carrying out his plans, as is certainly the case so far in Yemen and apparently in Qatar. The Israeli factor also is not to be overlooked. Iran is an existential threat to Israel and the southern Sunni arc countries are real or potential allies, formal or informal. Iranian bases in Syria will not be tolerated and if established will be attacked militarily. Relations with Russia are surprisingly quite good, one reason being that Putin, the quintessential realist, has a healthy respect for Israeli military, security and intelligence capabilities, which he wants on his side, not arrayed against him.
But this makes him hostage to actions which may be taken by Iran, or more likely by its proxies such as Hezbollah. Any outbreak of open hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah would place the Russians in the awkward position of having to choose between Iran and Israel.
The one thing we know nothing about is the future, but with the new developments, added to the already toxic brew in the Middle East since the so-called “Arab Spring,” prediction is rendered all but impossible. Even the greatest of the Biblical prophets would quail at proclaiming what is going to take place, although the Book of Ezequiel comes uncomfortably close.
Jason Wright, you are probably young, but history didn’t start with Trump, and history can still be learnt. As far as I can remember, the only major terrorist attack on Americans – better, on the American soil – was 9/11, and this attack was "home made". And yes, also against the American people, but organized by the same cabal ( a cabal not made up by Americans only…) that has been killing millions of people around the world before and after 9/11. Sorry Jason, nothing personal, but please try to look a bit deeper into history to understand what happened before Trump; then anybody may like him or not, that’s another story. Take care
Are you sure the ME countries can live without the west?
John Sampson The civilized, advanced human knowledge, get togetherness as one world village of conscious humans are under threat from midievel cults of sex slavery, rapes, killings, & degraded superiority?
Amir Dastan indications are there (not for ass to understand?) that polarisation of the world powers like U.S. Russia, Japan, Australia,Israel, will have to come to terms for eliminating the barbarians, before setting for a new world order of natural competative national supremacy!
Get out of the well, frog Mihir. There is a complex world out there to explore.
This is tailored to suit the Zionazi narrative.
Trumps hell bent on laying waste to America and it’s reputation. Every decision and policy he’s addressed has been self serving with long lasting results and repercussions. His threats towards countries ran by sadistic, maniacal dictators and the unjustifiable provocation of Palestinian/Jewish matters which have long been a massive issue of contention. Why get involved with something that is only going to provoke more terrorism and attacks on Americans. I really hope the rest of the world understands just how much most Americans hate that douche bag in a clown wig Donald Trump and we are the biggest victims of his ignorance and incompetence. Here’s hoping for impeachment….
It would have been a good article but calling Irannalys terrorists and President asad a galible while portraying Israel as a victim and US a Saviour renders the article and the author unbalanced. Shame really to a man of his exposure
P.S. See http://www.prophecyhouse.com for the noted books and materials.
Actually, we know a very great deal about the future and exactly what is going to take place in the Middle East and the world. Simply get a hold of author Tim Cohen’s books and other materials, to include "The AntiChrist and a Cup of Tea" and the "Messiah, HIstory and the Tribulation Period" multivolume series. Additionally, Tim Cohen has other books forthcoming dealing with the situation involving North Korea and Iran, as well as the Mideast peace process. It is written in Revelation 13:18 that someone WILL have wisdom and understand. So, to claim that "we know nothing about the future" is at this point in history entirely false and simply ignorant.
this writer might be mixing up Shia persians/ Iranians with Sunni wahabi arabs. ‘Terrorism’ is chiefly a wahabi sunni issue and not Shia led.
A turd pie prophet – kosher turd –
Cannibis? Really Mihir Nandy?
Thank you Thomas Daniel Kuhn, and it does not surprise that the so-called learned gentleman, works out of Israel, for an Israeli institution? So, is the man unbiased or not, does he present a non-prejudiced view of the region. He clearly is no prophet, and even if her were, prophets with integrity are extinct.
What for China matters, when they are atheist, anti religions, & lustfull humans in the name of communists. Make again China isolated as before as a forbidden society of kafirs, who are cannabis.
It’s moral right of the yehudies( Jews)to uphold jerujalam as the scared religious capital city like Vatican for catholics, & mecca, Medina, for islam!
Stop meddling into our affairs and keep away from the middle east and all troubles will come to an end.
One has to admire the resolve of the American self entitlement and feel superior and unique lot. First, they’re aware of the grip that Kim Jong-Un has held NK and thus you cannot come here and lie to the world that the North Koreans aren’t aware what a nuclear Apocalypse would look like. They’re very much aware of the dangers of a nuclear war and again, let us not pretend that a nuclear war piting USA and N Korea would see the latter completely annihilated and the former standing still with no casualties at their country. They do not have to lie to the world that they do have the technology to intercept a N Korean miniaturized ICBM. This is a true lie that is believed to be possible in the Hollywood theater scenes.
Again I’ve said and I’ll say once again. Assassinating Kim Jong-Un will not be the end of an American-Korean hatred because these issues are far older than the current generation of leaders and will be there even after all of them are dead. They are historical grievances shared by the Korean leadership and killing Kim Jong-Un today will not stop the probably much more dangerous army generals from using the nukes when their leadership is threarened.
Funny how every thing written by an American about world affairs comes down to Us good them bad. Mr. Bailey, The world has moved on from the brutal domination of the USA, and is slowly getting the Western Jackboot of it`s neck.. And I see you have bought into the tired US chesnut about Iran supporting terrorists in the Middle East while ignoring the fact that most of the weapons supplied in the Middle East and the illegal wars started there have one thing in common and that is they originate from Washington and the Beltway Warriors Club. In short all you have written here is just one more American, Israeli propaganda piece.
Any article on the middle east is not complete without China and its Belt and Road Initiative. The US is stirring new trouble by officially recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. From my view, nothing good would come out of it.