The South Asian region’s political map is transforming phenomenally. The early counting from Nepal’s parliamentary elections, which concluded on Thursday, suggests that the Left Alliance, which comprises the country’s communist parties, is surging ahead and will form the next government in Kathmandu.
The Left Alliance is notionally ‘pro-China’ in outlook. Simultaneously, the President of the Maldives, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, has begun a four-day state visit to China.
The two are unrelated events but there is a common thread insofar as they signal an atrophy in India’s influence in the South Asia region, which can only be regarded as a foreign-policy failure on the part of the Modi government. Simply put, Maldives and Nepal could be moving out of the Indian orbit.
Broadly, what is happening can be attributed to the ‘muscular diplomacy’ practiced by the Modi government toward these small, vulnerable neighbors. It ought to be Nepal’s decision whether it wants to be a secular country or a ‘Hindu Rashtra.’ New Delhi cannot punish Nepal for choosing its own path.
Frankly, it was downright stupid to have tried to pressure Nepal two years ago by imposing a two-month long economic blockade that led to acute shortages of fuel, cooking gas, medicines and other supplies from India. A perception grew that the Madhesi people (who are of Indian ancestry) in the southern region of Nepal, bordering India, were the latter’s fifth column.
India also erred seriously in mishandling relief work after the earthquake in Nepal in April 2015 by making it a public relations contest with the Chinese. The Nepalese felt disgusted with India’s one-upmanship. Indian diplomacy never regained its footing after that.
The anti-Indian sentiments that have resulted have seriously damaged India’s image, diminished its stature and weakened its influence in the country. To complicate matters further, reported dealings by New Delhi with the Nepali royalist camp (who are close to Hindu nationalist groups in India) in recent months can only have further irritated democratic forces across the board.
In sum, the crudeness and rank opportunism of Indian attempts to prop up one favorite after another (while also playing one favorite against another) has brought matters to such a pass that today there is no single political constituency in Nepal willing to take New Delhi’s hand.
The story of India’s relations with the Maldives is no less dismal. New Delhi’s foreign and security policy establishment has been unwise in its injection into the relationship of too much geopolitics. The better way would have been to patiently strengthen interdependency between the nations. India (with a population of 1.3 billion) is the Maldives’ (which has a total of 417,492 people) nearest neighbor.
India has specific interests in the Maldives. Why does it have to form an alliance with the US to pressure the island nation? Equally, Modi’s blatant snub of Male’s attempts to host a visit by him smacked of petulance and imperial arrogance. There was nothing to lose by Modi undertaking a visit to Male. After all, he has visited Lahore.
India’s behavior has alienated both Nepal and Maldives and is compelling them to gravitate toward China as their benefactor
The nadir was reached, though, when New Delhi began providing a platform to the former Maldivian president Mohamed Nasheed, the bête noire of the present regime in Male, from which he has attacked the latter. An impression has been created there is a ‘regime change’ project afoot – similar to what many suspect happened in Sri Lanka in January 2015 – and that Nasheed is being kept in the ante-room to be brought out and anointed at the right time.
Perceptions matter in relationships and New Delhi’s steamy affair with Nasheed has only put the Male regime’s back up.
Suffice to say, India’s behavior has alienated both Nepal and Maldives and is compelling them to gravitate toward China as their benefactor.
Both countries have strong affinities with India on a human and cultural level and neither can do without India’s help. China, indeed, cannot be a substitute for what India offers them. But Beijing has rolled out the red carpet for Yameen. He is the first South Asian leader to visit China after the Communist Party congress last month. There is powerful symbolism here. President Xi Jinping told Yameen, while receiving him at the Great Hall of the People, on Thursday, that China regards the Maldives as “an important partner in the construction of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.”
Yameen responded that the Maldives viewed China as “amongst our closest friends, most trusted and most dependable partners.” From the way Beijing has hyped up Yameen’s visit, it appears that it regards the Maldives as a more reliable partner than Sri Lanka in its Silk Road strategies in the Indian Ocean region.
Good read.
Note : Nepal new government will be Pro-Nepal not Pro-China or Pro-India . People of Nepal have already realized the fact that too close relationship with India is not beneficial for Nepal at all . Even Nepal and India shares Open border Nepali People has to face Inhuman ecomonomic Blockade many times and soon India may imposed again but this times Nepal seems little bit more alert and prepared .
Bhadrakumar can never write a balanced view. He ideas are too much left oriented. His writings are always distorted. He is insulting the people of Nepal. Nepal’s people have voted independently for their own interest and not for the purpose of orbiting anyone.
from now onwards no orbiting to any of the two nations – it should be balanced based and the priority should be national interest perod.
That’s how the india ELITE treat ordinary people in their own country ….and it reflect’s their arrogance in DIPLOMACY !!!…just too backward mentality for today’s WORLD …but NOT in INDIA …the greatest DEMOCRACY on earth !!??
I call #IndianDeplomacy, #TeaSellingDiplomacy, just like their leader. Wake up Indian diplomats, the age of #CrabMentality is over. Diplomats should not act like a Boss, there is no sign of Leadership in your attitude. "Treat other as you would like to be treated"!!
Have you taken lessons in kowtowing? If not please do, you will be well protected by your Cheeni brother!
Just the other day you asked the Indian government to send forces into Maldives, what was that all about?
Agreed
Maldives testing India’s patience. Indian Punchline by MKB
another indian bastard writing his own opinion based on his narrow concept
"Nepal’s people have voted independently for their own interest and not for the purpose of orbiting anyone."
Yes, but the EFFECT of results of the election objectively shifts the plane of Nepal’s "orbit". Elections can do that.
Nepal and India shares the common religion and cultural value. The heavy indulge of Indian bureaucrates, specifically the Indian Embassy in Nepal, is the primary cause behind the current situation. In the words of indian intellectual, these black Angrez are always indulging into the internal politics of Nepal. India itself is a very diversified in terms of religion, culture, ethinicity etc. But, Indian establishment made a policy to discriminate Nepalese people based on their ethinicity so as to destabilize it. A large number of people in India are of hilly ethinicity. States like Himachal, Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Assm, Nagaland etc are among them.
It is utmost imp for Nepal to move out of Indian orbit. Indian so called wish for stability, peace and development is a showpiece. In fact, India wants an unstable Nepal which would be highly dependent on India and in turn India could meddle in for their own interest.
Galen Linder. These orbits exist only between politicians as far as relations between India and Nepal are concerned. People to people India and Nepal are one civilization. These so called orbits won’t matter in the long run.
The author statrs his article with adverb "notionally" thereafter all his contentions become hypothetical. Just being adhering to a particular ideology (communism) doesn’t render Nepal’s proclivity to China. In fact, Left Alliance is more India friendly as compared to China.
As far as Maldives is concerned, the author must acknowlege the stepmotherly behaviors meted to Hindu travellers to that country. All Hindu ensmbles and
insignia have to be abondoned at airport while entering this country, thereby instilling a sense of afront and discrimination at the very begning!
For years Congress government kept afloat a country highly inimical to religious sentiments of non-muslims, a fact which the author conveniently forgets to mention.
The problem with India is that both its political leadership and their Babus suffer from what can be called "great power hallucination" and that has misguided their decision making all the years of post-independence India. To substantiate their claim to super power status, they took money from the hungry millions and built atom bomb and space rockets (something that a small country North Korea too did successfully lately) even as two-thirds of its 1.3 billion people langush in poverty and dispossession. While a tiny segment of its population, the business community, has lent the country a semblance of growth, India remians mired in one of the cruellest contradictions and extremes known to mankind in the 21st century,While most of its people remain chronically impoverished, India is one country where the number of billionnaires are steadily on the rise. However, given its super power hangover, it only does things to neighbours that have since sent them to the welcoming embrace of a more cooperative and considerate China. Besides, while China’s economy has grown to be more than five times bigger than that of India, the latter still considers it beneath its dignity to be working with her for her own economic upturn, despite its own NITI Ayog’s susstained recommedation to that end. And of course, PM Modi himself likes nothing better than bodily hugging the American Presidents with all the implications that go with it.
If loot is appropriate with regard to China, then Dacoitism seems appropriate for the West
Nepal should manufacture and sell to India instead of buying from them. Indians should stop importing from China and find ways to sell them goods instead. This is the best way both India and Nepal can develop.
Mr. M.K. Bhadrakumar, I respectully disagree with your twisted analysis of the whole paradigm with your narrow belief system or you are deliberately doing it. Actually Nepalese people are not Pro-China or Pro-India. They want properous and happy Nepal. They want to live peacefully. It is India who is taking adventage of Nepalese resources. They are using many resources including water for free and want to continue doing it. India want unrest in Nepalese politics all the time so that they keep benifiting from it. They keep fueling different groups in Nepal with money and resources and depict to the rest of the world that it is unrest in Nepal that is creating problems. Actually if there is peace and prosperity in Nepal, it is India who will benefit the most. There will be no border crime and human trafficking. Your Bihar and UP will be doing even better. Bring long term and big picture thinking rather than narrow mindset. Please stop spreading hate. Nepalese people want respect, justice and proper sharing of resources from India so that economy of the region would be even better leading to better harmony !
This is one reason why left front is emerging in Nepal in the election recently held in Nepal. The main cause is Nepali Congrass could not form its image of ideal politics in Nepal. For power it took many unnatural steps to irritate its supporters. In the name of free market economy the state defended syndicate in every sector. Corruption rapidly increased. Vulgar alliances were made. In fact, there is no single leader in the Nepali Congress who could be a statesman . So the trend of vote casting in Nepal shows that the percentage of the voters of Communist parties is increasing in every election.
I don’t know why the writer can’t understand china had literally controlled the elections in maldives ,the reason why nasheed was ousted , the reason why gmr lost the contract for the airport at male which is now given to bucg . Yameen is a man of china.
kindly correct your article as it was 8 month long blockade not 2 months
it was an 8 month long blockade not 2 months and not to say the least nepal chocked
kindly note that it was an 8 month long blockade not 2 months and to say the least “nepal choked”
Agreed
China tumeh sammaan dega? Wo tumeh colony bana lega. Bharat ne tumse Kya galat apeksheiyein rakhi h .
Communists whether India or Nepal are slaves of their masters, whether Modi at helm or Manmohan. Therefore attributing Communists inclination to wards China to prsent Govt is wrong.
We can’t forget that while we nepalese troubles by earthquake and at the same time india has impose the economic blocked ! Dont forget Nepal have a history befor the india made !
Its totally nepal’s decision with whom what kind of relationship they want.
But one thing is sure relation are all about give and take ….it will never be only take as they expect from INDIA
As a common Nepali citizen, I can say the 5th and 6th and to some extent 4th paragraph of this article sums up where India went wrong and lost its hold as well as relation with Nepal.
Like India’s foreign policy is maintaining dominance on its smallar and weaker neighbours (instead of ofcourse going side by side making each other prosporous and strong like the EU nations). Ours foreign policy is bringing both China and India head to head in our teritorriy and bringing out infrastractural as well as economical benifits.
India blindly supported Burma against Bangladesh.
this should be regarded as a foreign-policy failure on the part of the congress government