It is hard to explain why President Bashar al-Assad used nerve gas in the town of Khan Sheikhoun in northern Syria’s Idlib province. On the surface at least it would seem to be a totally counter-productive and reckless move likely to cause anger in Europe and the United States or even worse.
Then why did he do it? He used nerve gas to block a peace process agreed by the US and Russia that would turn Syria into cantons and reduce Alawite control only to those districts where the Alawite minority dominates.
The nerve gas attack, most probably sarin, dropped by aircraft caused great surprise. It came immediately after the US strongly hinted that it was no longer going to pursue regime change in Syria, a major policy switch that should have reassured Assad that he could hang on as ruler of Syria.
Some pundits saw the US change in policy as an incentive to Assad, making it possible for him to revert to using highly lethal chemical weapons, especially sarin.
The pundits also argued that by using sarin, mainly against civilian targets, he could test whether the new policy was real. To some degree the announcement by British Prime Minister Theresa May that the UK had no retaliatory plans despite the attack might seem as some evidence for this argument. However, this is not what was behind Assad’s use of nerve gas.
It is a considerable stretch to think that Assad would use chemical weapons to test an American policy shift, particularly since one would think that such a change would help Assad and the Alawite minority in Syria in cutting a final deal that preserved their domination of Syria. It is doubtful that is the explanation.
The more likely truth is that Assad was deeply afraid that the US policy shift was part of a secret deal with the Russians, one that he had to head off.
One needs to remember that the ostensible liquidation of Syria’s sarin nerve gas stocks was a deal struck between Russia and the United States, in particular between Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and then US secretary of state John Kerry. Thus the guarantors of Assad’s compliance are both Russia and the United States. Assad’s use of sarin at Khan Sheikhoun thus was a direct challenge to both countries, but especially a challenge to Russia.
The Russians have been scrambling to come up with some way to explain how sarin came to be used. Had there been no Syrian aircraft over Khan Sheikhoun, the Russians would have brought out radar track maps to prove their case. Since, obviously the radar track maps most probably show Syrian planes operating over the northern Syrian town on the day of the attack, the Russians could not use this sort of evidence.
It took the Russians nearly 48 hours to come up with an argument. They said that a Syrian rocket hit a warehouse where the rebels were stockpiling chemical weapons, which then leaked killing the civilians in Khan Sheikhoun.
So far at least no one is buying this story. Technically, a release of nerve agents from leaking containers is far from convincing; in any case most governments and the UN have rejected the story as unconvincing and fabricated.
In practical terms nerve gas dissipates fairly quickly and is not persistent – and there is scant evidence that the rebels in Syria have any (and if they did they had plenty of opportunity to use it but didn’t).
The Russians are in a very difficult position and probably are hoping that Assad’s return to sarin nerve gas will soon be forgotten. But the Russians also know that Assad’s use of nerve gas was a direct challenge to Russian policy and a direct slap in President Vladimir Putin’s face.
Why? The answer is that Assad, as paranoid as he surely is, suspected that the American announcement on a change in policy against regime was an opening bid by the United States to cut a deal with the Russians on a general Syrian settlement.
Russia’s attempt to get a deal on its own has failed and its negotiating efforts stalled when both the Syrian regime and the rebels basically disowned reaching any deal.
In addition, Russian support for Kurdish autonomy in Syria angered Assad. From Assad’s point of view, he is totally hostage to the whims of the Russians and their surrogates such as Iran. He most likely sees his regime being sold out, or Syria cantonized (actually Russia’s plan), which appeared to him ever more likely if the US and Russia were colluding.
Even the Syrians read newspapers, and they would conclude (as the Democrats in the US and some Republicans like John McCain are trying hard to promote) that Trump is in league with Putin. In Syria you believe such stuff, no matter if it is nonsense. Syrian policymakers would say that the US Federal Bureau of Investigation’s ongoing probe is proof of a Trump-Putin alliance.
In this light, Assad’s turn to bombing targets with sarin nerve gas was intended to demonstrate independence from both superpowers and make it nearly impossible for an engineered settlement to be imposed on his regime.
With the US angry and up in arms, and the Russians looking for some sort of excuse to explain away Assad’s deviation, the sacrifice of some hapless civilians is in the Syrian President’s view a cynically effective way to hold off the dogs.
WRONG! Sarin is specifically designed NOT to "dissapate fairly quickly".And the Russian explanation is the only one that makes sense.
Firstly, its kind of a clever linguistic frame titling the piece "Why Did He Use Nerve Gas?" It insinuates that he in fact "did" use nerve gas, which is far from established. Serious former Intelligence professionals with connections to the intelligence community, namely Ray McGovern and Gareth Porter are saying that in fact the Russian version is, by their sources accounts, true. Secondly, yours is the most ridiculous conjecture (I’m not sure you can call this article journalism) I’ve come across, it doesn’t even make sense. Assad maybe a lot of things but foolish is probably not one of them. At least CNN and FOX just label him a mad man and then give no evidence and sources. Your account on the other hand is in the realm of pure fantasy, and of course corroborated by no evidence and sources.
It’s illegal regardless of how many days the US would wait.
The US has illegally bombed Syrian hospitals, government forces, and civilians prior to this Sarin gas nonsense and illegal missile attack.
Fu,,g J000000
Are we to believe that Assad, who is winning the war, has squirreled away some chemical weapons in violation of the agreement to eliminate them and then decide completely without any reason to use them to hand the US, Turkey and the West in general a casus belli? A gift to those who want to attack the Syrian government? Could he be that stupid? Of course not.
It makes much more sense to suspect a false flag. While we do not know the details, it is almost certain that the US, Turkey and their jihadist allies created this provocation to create the casus belli. During February, the heads of the CIA, the Joint Chiefs, and the chair of the
Senate armed services committee were all in Turkey. At the end of March,
Erdogan paid a visit to Washington. This is probably when plans for
this Reichstag Fire was planned
This was good reading and i found reading the comments super interesting. People accused of being mossad and using fake names to post what must be propaganda. This has gotten so crazy that one might as well FLIP A COIN to decide who used the Sarin
The story is a bung as the motive provided is not based on facts
I wonder how paid mouthpiece such as this pseudo journalist managed to sleep at night. Gie who do they do to children in the western society that makes them turnout like this???
Full of speculations based on baseless allegation of "assad poisoned his own people".
Dennis Boylon In these situations like this, no rush actions like bombing the country, which is already devastated by the 5-6 year war, are unwise, let’s wait for the research results, and if there is a need, then invite independent experts…
Another hypothetical, worthless, baseless, biased article generated by a Zionist entity. It is sad to see how this cancerous ideology is corrupting the world body into the state of degradation and annihilation.
Another hypothetical, worthless, baseless, biased article generated by a Zionist entity. It is sad to see how this cancerous ideology is corrupting the world body into the state of degradation and annihilation.
I love it, Dumb Americans wish to die for Zionism ,,,
According to U.N. site they’re not pointing the finger at anyone or ruling anything out.
Just because something is written in a newspaper, it doesn’t automatically become fact. There isn’t a single shred of evidence presented her to support the author’s speculation and conjecture. This is not news; it is propaganda.
Well i said that they had hit an Al Qaida stockpile of chemicals just after the strike was reported. Al Qaida who in both 2013 and 2016 used Sarin and tried to put the blame on Assad to get Nato to act.
This is so wrong.
Now for the second time in a few years Nato has become Al Qaidas airforce
Yeh, yeh… spoken like a jealous rusky.
Ken Nguyen. What agression? You mean gassing innocent children is not an agression by Syrian authority against their own people?
Ken Nguyen. Stop being an idiot and remove your fake Vietnamese name. You’re an impostor who pretended to be a Viet in order to heed China’s agenda. Tibet had always been a free nation until it was blatantly invaded by China. Who are you trying to fool?
We really don’t know who commanded this. Hell it’s possible the CIA or rebels smuggled and released sarin during a bombing campaign for propaganda effect.
What we do know is that the US launched a strike in TWO DAYS… that’s kinda fast considering it could be a least a little bit researched prior to bombing, unless of course it was planned.