It is hard to explain why President Bashar al-Assad used nerve gas in the town of Khan Sheikhoun in northern Syria’s Idlib province. On the surface at least it would seem to be a totally counter-productive and reckless move likely to cause anger in Europe and the United States or even worse.
Then why did he do it? He used nerve gas to block a peace process agreed by the US and Russia that would turn Syria into cantons and reduce Alawite control only to those districts where the Alawite minority dominates.
The nerve gas attack, most probably sarin, dropped by aircraft caused great surprise. It came immediately after the US strongly hinted that it was no longer going to pursue regime change in Syria, a major policy switch that should have reassured Assad that he could hang on as ruler of Syria.
Some pundits saw the US change in policy as an incentive to Assad, making it possible for him to revert to using highly lethal chemical weapons, especially sarin.
The pundits also argued that by using sarin, mainly against civilian targets, he could test whether the new policy was real. To some degree the announcement by British Prime Minister Theresa May that the UK had no retaliatory plans despite the attack might seem as some evidence for this argument. However, this is not what was behind Assad’s use of nerve gas.
It is a considerable stretch to think that Assad would use chemical weapons to test an American policy shift, particularly since one would think that such a change would help Assad and the Alawite minority in Syria in cutting a final deal that preserved their domination of Syria. It is doubtful that is the explanation.
The more likely truth is that Assad was deeply afraid that the US policy shift was part of a secret deal with the Russians, one that he had to head off.
One needs to remember that the ostensible liquidation of Syria’s sarin nerve gas stocks was a deal struck between Russia and the United States, in particular between Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and then US secretary of state John Kerry. Thus the guarantors of Assad’s compliance are both Russia and the United States. Assad’s use of sarin at Khan Sheikhoun thus was a direct challenge to both countries, but especially a challenge to Russia.
The Russians have been scrambling to come up with some way to explain how sarin came to be used. Had there been no Syrian aircraft over Khan Sheikhoun, the Russians would have brought out radar track maps to prove their case. Since, obviously the radar track maps most probably show Syrian planes operating over the northern Syrian town on the day of the attack, the Russians could not use this sort of evidence.
It took the Russians nearly 48 hours to come up with an argument. They said that a Syrian rocket hit a warehouse where the rebels were stockpiling chemical weapons, which then leaked killing the civilians in Khan Sheikhoun.
So far at least no one is buying this story. Technically, a release of nerve agents from leaking containers is far from convincing; in any case most governments and the UN have rejected the story as unconvincing and fabricated.
In practical terms nerve gas dissipates fairly quickly and is not persistent – and there is scant evidence that the rebels in Syria have any (and if they did they had plenty of opportunity to use it but didn’t).
The Russians are in a very difficult position and probably are hoping that Assad’s return to sarin nerve gas will soon be forgotten. But the Russians also know that Assad’s use of nerve gas was a direct challenge to Russian policy and a direct slap in President Vladimir Putin’s face.
Why? The answer is that Assad, as paranoid as he surely is, suspected that the American announcement on a change in policy against regime was an opening bid by the United States to cut a deal with the Russians on a general Syrian settlement.
Russia’s attempt to get a deal on its own has failed and its negotiating efforts stalled when both the Syrian regime and the rebels basically disowned reaching any deal.
In addition, Russian support for Kurdish autonomy in Syria angered Assad. From Assad’s point of view, he is totally hostage to the whims of the Russians and their surrogates such as Iran. He most likely sees his regime being sold out, or Syria cantonized (actually Russia’s plan), which appeared to him ever more likely if the US and Russia were colluding.
Even the Syrians read newspapers, and they would conclude (as the Democrats in the US and some Republicans like John McCain are trying hard to promote) that Trump is in league with Putin. In Syria you believe such stuff, no matter if it is nonsense. Syrian policymakers would say that the US Federal Bureau of Investigation’s ongoing probe is proof of a Trump-Putin alliance.
In this light, Assad’s turn to bombing targets with sarin nerve gas was intended to demonstrate independence from both superpowers and make it nearly impossible for an engineered settlement to be imposed on his regime.
With the US angry and up in arms, and the Russians looking for some sort of excuse to explain away Assad’s deviation, the sacrifice of some hapless civilians is in the Syrian President’s view a cynically effective way to hold off the dogs.
I think this explanation makes complete sense. Using Sarin has no significant military impact and comes with serious blowback and embarrassment to Russia. An obvious affront to their guarantors. Heading off a bad deal made through back channels seems plausible.
Why support a lie and fail to condemn American aggression?
And the punishment has been swift and severe. Stupid Assad and clever Donald Trump. The USA is the leader of the world and Assad has stabbed its friend, Russia in the back.
Too much IQ!!
Stephen Bryen, works for Mossad,, Do I neet to tell more?!
And just like that Amercans are back in Syria. Instead of giving winded explanation of Why Assad would do it and reaching conclusion that he must have gone mad and decided to commit suicide, look at Americans. Steve Bannon is out, American war dogs are satisfied and Trump is now ther own man, God Americans have commited so many murders that every time anything like this happens people should first look at Criminal Americans. 90% it is these criminals and they have most to gain. Another 5% chance Turks have done it to bring Syria back in play.
SAA is advancing on all fronts, including Idlib countryside… so, why invade the football field if your team is winning?
The job of punishing Syria for dropping nerve gas bombs on civilians should be left to recently formed "Islamic NATO army"! It is being led by Retd. General Raheel of Pakistan. The force. Is created by 50 plus Islamic nations to protect Islamic interest of Muslim countries.
this explanation is one of menny and time will tell the truth
He’s just a piece of crap, maybe american or brit
Assad is so sure about the use of chem weapon because he got the super power behind him – The Russia and partner Turkey as well as Iran. USA Pres. Trum just could not stand up to such civilian suffering and decided to use Tamahawk to partially punish B. Al-Assad. However, it appears that Assad knew it before the missiles would strike and had minimize his regime’s loss! Another Russian connection??
“In the surface at least it would seem to be a totally counter-productive and reckless move likely to cause anger in Europe and the United States or even worse.”
Because it is counter-productive. That’s why Assad didn’t do it.
“Then why did he do it? He used nerve gas to block a peace process agreed by the US and Russia that would turn Syria into cantons and reduce Alawite control only to those districts where the Alawite minority dominates.”
The Alawites are not the dominant minority of Syria. Bashar al-Assad, as his father, is an Alawite, but that doesn’t make the Alawites dominant. The truth is that Assad is the consensus governor of all the Syrian minorities (which are many, including Christians), which together make up to 30% of the Syrian population – the Alawites are secular Muslims, so it’s not difficult to understand why it was an Alawite who created something that resembles a State in Syria.
“The more likely truth is that Assad was deeply afraid that the US policy shift was part of a secret deal with the Russians, one that he had to head off.”
“One needs to remember that the ostensible liquidation of Syria’s sarin nerve gas stocks was a deal struck between Russia and the United States, in particular between Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and then US secretary of state John Kerry.”
That’s not the correct presentation of the facts. Russia intervened and persuaded Assad to liquidate its chemical arsenal precisely because neither Russia nor Syria want Syria to be partitioned. Let’s remember Russia has its only warm waters base in Syria, which depends on the integrity of Assad’s government to exist. It’s its only foothold in the ME. The probability of Russia agreeing to a peace accord based on the partition of Syria is zero, unless geopolitically checkmated. That was not the case, since Assad is on the verge of winning the war against ISIS/al-Nusra.
“It took the Russians nearly 48 hours to come up with an argument.”
Because it takes time to investigate and clear this sort of things. The only people who come with ready-made answers to complex things are people with lies. Syrian sources say local newspapers published the chemical attack before the attack even happened.
“Why? The answer is that Assad, as paranoid as he surely is, suspected that the American announcement on a change in policy against regime was an opening bid by the United States to cut a deal with the Russians on a general Syrian settlement.”
Assad is in the middle of a war of annihilation against a ferocious enemy who wants to kill him, his people, his children, rape his wife and enslave the rest. I think it’s a stretch to think Assad is thinking on politicking between things he doesn’t even have proper intelligence, let alone control, of.
About the nature of the Sarin, see this:
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/04/syria-us-creates-new-air-support-request-scheme-for-al-qaeda.html#more
All I have to state here is that, yes – the terrorists have the means to produce Sarin; and, yes, the terrorists have the means to receive it from Turkey, which has a chemical arsenal. So the explanation of the Syrian government is credible.
Why in the hell would Assad need to test US policy when he has lived without it for years? Its non-sense!
The author is building a hypothesis on the basis of an imaginary deal between the US and Russia….a deal that excludes Iran and Syria. How come Russia make such a deal? There is NO DEAL and Assad didn’t test anything. The story of gas attack was alll the US needed to sabotage the Russian led peace process. That’s how it could keep the conflict alive and his arab allies happy & satisfied.
Are you kidding….really,,,,given the quality of past articles in this venue, I am surprised that this analysis, which could have been originated form a high school class, was even reviewed, let alone put out there for public consumption…..Assad and Putin are exponentially more informed and intelligent that this article would lead one to believe, Assad gains absolutely nothing by gassing his own population, and only serves to alienate both the US and his ally Russia. The only group who gains anything here are the terrorists, this author must be living in a bubble inside the beltway…..
Garbage fake news based on Western propaganda. Think about it if Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction so Assad would not bomb his own people with chemical weapons. This is just a setup for the bullies to do their bombing and make money from war.
Instead of this rhetorical drivel, IMHO the author should ask the questions:
1) Was there actually a nerve gas attack?
2) If so, who did it, and why?
In breaking news, it seems only 23 of the 59 Tomohawk `precision munitions` hit their intended target. No-one is saying yet what happened to the others. Could it be that Russian hackers redirected them onto terrorist targets? Wouldn´t that be great??
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-07/first-images-aftermath-inefficient-us-missile-strikes-emerge
That article is the ramblings of an idiot. Assad may have use gas, but I doubt that he did. This attack has the finger prints of the Islamic State fighters all over it. They have sacrificed children before.
Pausible? Assad signed his death warrnt if this is his doing, which I doubt it is. He was winning the war! And Russia was still frimly backing him.
A quick search a STEPHEN BRYEN’s name poops up along with Mossad.
I totally agree. Clearly they had this ready and were just waiting for an excuse to let the missles fly. As Russia and Syria both stated they hit an Al Qaeda weapons dump it is most probable the gas was Al Qaeda’s probably given to them by the Americans.
We really don’t know who commanded this. Hell it’s possible the CIA or rebels smuggled and released sarin during a bombing campaign for propaganda effect.
What we do know is that the US launched a strike in TWO DAYS… that’s kinda fast considering it could be a least a little bit researched prior to bombing, unless of course it was planned.
Ken Nguyen. Stop being an idiot and remove your fake Vietnamese name. You’re an impostor who pretended to be a Viet in order to heed China’s agenda. Tibet had always been a free nation until it was blatantly invaded by China. Who are you trying to fool?
Ken Nguyen. What agression? You mean gassing innocent children is not an agression by Syrian authority against their own people?
Yeh, yeh… spoken like a jealous rusky.
Well i said that they had hit an Al Qaida stockpile of chemicals just after the strike was reported. Al Qaida who in both 2013 and 2016 used Sarin and tried to put the blame on Assad to get Nato to act.
This is so wrong.
Now for the second time in a few years Nato has become Al Qaidas airforce
Just because something is written in a newspaper, it doesn’t automatically become fact. There isn’t a single shred of evidence presented her to support the author’s speculation and conjecture. This is not news; it is propaganda.
According to U.N. site they’re not pointing the finger at anyone or ruling anything out.
I love it, Dumb Americans wish to die for Zionism ,,,
Another hypothetical, worthless, baseless, biased article generated by a Zionist entity. It is sad to see how this cancerous ideology is corrupting the world body into the state of degradation and annihilation.
Another hypothetical, worthless, baseless, biased article generated by a Zionist entity. It is sad to see how this cancerous ideology is corrupting the world body into the state of degradation and annihilation.
Dennis Boylon In these situations like this, no rush actions like bombing the country, which is already devastated by the 5-6 year war, are unwise, let’s wait for the research results, and if there is a need, then invite independent experts…
Full of speculations based on baseless allegation of "assad poisoned his own people".
I wonder how paid mouthpiece such as this pseudo journalist managed to sleep at night. Gie who do they do to children in the western society that makes them turnout like this???
The story is a bung as the motive provided is not based on facts
This was good reading and i found reading the comments super interesting. People accused of being mossad and using fake names to post what must be propaganda. This has gotten so crazy that one might as well FLIP A COIN to decide who used the Sarin
Are we to believe that Assad, who is winning the war, has squirreled away some chemical weapons in violation of the agreement to eliminate them and then decide completely without any reason to use them to hand the US, Turkey and the West in general a casus belli? A gift to those who want to attack the Syrian government? Could he be that stupid? Of course not.
It makes much more sense to suspect a false flag. While we do not know the details, it is almost certain that the US, Turkey and their jihadist allies created this provocation to create the casus belli. During February, the heads of the CIA, the Joint Chiefs, and the chair of the
Senate armed services committee were all in Turkey. At the end of March,
Erdogan paid a visit to Washington. This is probably when plans for
this Reichstag Fire was planned
Fu,,g J000000
It’s illegal regardless of how many days the US would wait.
The US has illegally bombed Syrian hospitals, government forces, and civilians prior to this Sarin gas nonsense and illegal missile attack.
Firstly, its kind of a clever linguistic frame titling the piece "Why Did He Use Nerve Gas?" It insinuates that he in fact "did" use nerve gas, which is far from established. Serious former Intelligence professionals with connections to the intelligence community, namely Ray McGovern and Gareth Porter are saying that in fact the Russian version is, by their sources accounts, true. Secondly, yours is the most ridiculous conjecture (I’m not sure you can call this article journalism) I’ve come across, it doesn’t even make sense. Assad maybe a lot of things but foolish is probably not one of them. At least CNN and FOX just label him a mad man and then give no evidence and sources. Your account on the other hand is in the realm of pure fantasy, and of course corroborated by no evidence and sources.
WRONG! Sarin is specifically designed NOT to "dissapate fairly quickly".And the Russian explanation is the only one that makes sense.
Theories should not be reported as news. Speculation does not make fact, even as given in many of the comments here.
If one could interview Assad and have some degree of trust about getting the truth, they might get the only real reason why the attack occurred, IF it was actually Assad and not a false flag event staged to give some advantage to one faction of the rebels. Me, unlike many commentors here, I have too few facts I can certify to know with certainty who is responsible and why it took place.
As to Trumps actions, he weighed the options, got three "best" scenarios back from the principals he asked to deliver the options to him – one of which was possibly doing nothing. What he chose was accepted that it would not make much of a dent in Assad militarily, but if U.S. intel turned out to be correct, and Assad was responsible, it sent him a signal that a "red line" had been crossed. Waiting, and maybe down the road alternate intelligence sources may determine some other responsible party was likely not politically possible. If it is a powerful signal you are trying to send "you crossed a red line" then you don’t wait.
Some have questioned the results of the U.S. attack because it didn’t take out the runway. How fast can you repair/rebuild the runway? Quickly. How fast can you replace destroyed planes? Not quickly. The attack took out a bunch of planes.
End of story. It does not matter why Assad did it (if it was Assad). He’s not likely to do it again. Point made.
Dennis Boylon Russia and Syria have said no such thing, so many experts, point on in the direction of a news article stating such.
Or, terrorists set off a Sarin burst on the ground just as Syrian military jet fly overhead, Radar/Satellite tracks plane, Sarin kills, Assad did it! Perfect terrorist attack to turn everyone against Assad. A perfect tactic for creating a power vacuum.
Stephen’s article is totally fake news, and dishonest. He is talking like it is a real fact. Up to this day, some countries have talked about having a committee to really evaluate who caused this bombing but up to now nothing it is been done. I wonder why they do not want to know the truth. What it is certain for sure is the blame to the government of Syria for the bombing. It is beyond me how people or countries based on rumors can write and talk like it is real. Some like USA government took action and made comments justifyig her fake facts. Writers like this Stephen, a ight wing idiotic bigot writes like we are dealing with proven facts. Here, the American journalists do it like it is proven fact, as well. What it is happening it is pure lie and deceptive manipulation of the facts. That is a crime.