It is hard to explain why President Bashar al-Assad used nerve gas in the town of Khan Sheikhoun in northern Syria’s Idlib province. On the surface at least it would seem to be a totally counter-productive and reckless move likely to cause anger in Europe and the United States or even worse.
Then why did he do it? He used nerve gas to block a peace process agreed by the US and Russia that would turn Syria into cantons and reduce Alawite control only to those districts where the Alawite minority dominates.
The nerve gas attack, most probably sarin, dropped by aircraft caused great surprise. It came immediately after the US strongly hinted that it was no longer going to pursue regime change in Syria, a major policy switch that should have reassured Assad that he could hang on as ruler of Syria.
Some pundits saw the US change in policy as an incentive to Assad, making it possible for him to revert to using highly lethal chemical weapons, especially sarin.
The pundits also argued that by using sarin, mainly against civilian targets, he could test whether the new policy was real. To some degree the announcement by British Prime Minister Theresa May that the UK had no retaliatory plans despite the attack might seem as some evidence for this argument. However, this is not what was behind Assad’s use of nerve gas.
It is a considerable stretch to think that Assad would use chemical weapons to test an American policy shift, particularly since one would think that such a change would help Assad and the Alawite minority in Syria in cutting a final deal that preserved their domination of Syria. It is doubtful that is the explanation.
The more likely truth is that Assad was deeply afraid that the US policy shift was part of a secret deal with the Russians, one that he had to head off.
One needs to remember that the ostensible liquidation of Syria’s sarin nerve gas stocks was a deal struck between Russia and the United States, in particular between Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and then US secretary of state John Kerry. Thus the guarantors of Assad’s compliance are both Russia and the United States. Assad’s use of sarin at Khan Sheikhoun thus was a direct challenge to both countries, but especially a challenge to Russia.
The Russians have been scrambling to come up with some way to explain how sarin came to be used. Had there been no Syrian aircraft over Khan Sheikhoun, the Russians would have brought out radar track maps to prove their case. Since, obviously the radar track maps most probably show Syrian planes operating over the northern Syrian town on the day of the attack, the Russians could not use this sort of evidence.
It took the Russians nearly 48 hours to come up with an argument. They said that a Syrian rocket hit a warehouse where the rebels were stockpiling chemical weapons, which then leaked killing the civilians in Khan Sheikhoun.
So far at least no one is buying this story. Technically, a release of nerve agents from leaking containers is far from convincing; in any case most governments and the UN have rejected the story as unconvincing and fabricated.
In practical terms nerve gas dissipates fairly quickly and is not persistent – and there is scant evidence that the rebels in Syria have any (and if they did they had plenty of opportunity to use it but didn’t).
The Russians are in a very difficult position and probably are hoping that Assad’s return to sarin nerve gas will soon be forgotten. But the Russians also know that Assad’s use of nerve gas was a direct challenge to Russian policy and a direct slap in President Vladimir Putin’s face.
Why? The answer is that Assad, as paranoid as he surely is, suspected that the American announcement on a change in policy against regime was an opening bid by the United States to cut a deal with the Russians on a general Syrian settlement.
Russia’s attempt to get a deal on its own has failed and its negotiating efforts stalled when both the Syrian regime and the rebels basically disowned reaching any deal.
In addition, Russian support for Kurdish autonomy in Syria angered Assad. From Assad’s point of view, he is totally hostage to the whims of the Russians and their surrogates such as Iran. He most likely sees his regime being sold out, or Syria cantonized (actually Russia’s plan), which appeared to him ever more likely if the US and Russia were colluding.
Even the Syrians read newspapers, and they would conclude (as the Democrats in the US and some Republicans like John McCain are trying hard to promote) that Trump is in league with Putin. In Syria you believe such stuff, no matter if it is nonsense. Syrian policymakers would say that the US Federal Bureau of Investigation’s ongoing probe is proof of a Trump-Putin alliance.
In this light, Assad’s turn to bombing targets with sarin nerve gas was intended to demonstrate independence from both superpowers and make it nearly impossible for an engineered settlement to be imposed on his regime.
With the US angry and up in arms, and the Russians looking for some sort of excuse to explain away Assad’s deviation, the sacrifice of some hapless civilians is in the Syrian President’s view a cynically effective way to hold off the dogs.
I totally agree. Clearly they had this ready and were just waiting for an excuse to let the missles fly. As Russia and Syria both stated they hit an Al Qaeda weapons dump it is most probable the gas was Al Qaeda’s probably given to them by the Americans.
A quick search a STEPHEN BRYEN’s name poops up along with Mossad.
Pausible? Assad signed his death warrnt if this is his doing, which I doubt it is. He was winning the war! And Russia was still frimly backing him.
That article is the ramblings of an idiot. Assad may have use gas, but I doubt that he did. This attack has the finger prints of the Islamic State fighters all over it. They have sacrificed children before.
Instead of this rhetorical drivel, IMHO the author should ask the questions:
1) Was there actually a nerve gas attack?
2) If so, who did it, and why?
In breaking news, it seems only 23 of the 59 Tomohawk `precision munitions` hit their intended target. No-one is saying yet what happened to the others. Could it be that Russian hackers redirected them onto terrorist targets? Wouldn´t that be great??
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-07/first-images-aftermath-inefficient-us-missile-strikes-emerge
Garbage fake news based on Western propaganda. Think about it if Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction so Assad would not bomb his own people with chemical weapons. This is just a setup for the bullies to do their bombing and make money from war.
Are you kidding….really,,,,given the quality of past articles in this venue, I am surprised that this analysis, which could have been originated form a high school class, was even reviewed, let alone put out there for public consumption…..Assad and Putin are exponentially more informed and intelligent that this article would lead one to believe, Assad gains absolutely nothing by gassing his own population, and only serves to alienate both the US and his ally Russia. The only group who gains anything here are the terrorists, this author must be living in a bubble inside the beltway…..
Why in the hell would Assad need to test US policy when he has lived without it for years? Its non-sense!
The author is building a hypothesis on the basis of an imaginary deal between the US and Russia….a deal that excludes Iran and Syria. How come Russia make such a deal? There is NO DEAL and Assad didn’t test anything. The story of gas attack was alll the US needed to sabotage the Russian led peace process. That’s how it could keep the conflict alive and his arab allies happy & satisfied.
“In the surface at least it would seem to be a totally counter-productive and reckless move likely to cause anger in Europe and the United States or even worse.”
Because it is counter-productive. That’s why Assad didn’t do it.
“Then why did he do it? He used nerve gas to block a peace process agreed by the US and Russia that would turn Syria into cantons and reduce Alawite control only to those districts where the Alawite minority dominates.”
The Alawites are not the dominant minority of Syria. Bashar al-Assad, as his father, is an Alawite, but that doesn’t make the Alawites dominant. The truth is that Assad is the consensus governor of all the Syrian minorities (which are many, including Christians), which together make up to 30% of the Syrian population – the Alawites are secular Muslims, so it’s not difficult to understand why it was an Alawite who created something that resembles a State in Syria.
“The more likely truth is that Assad was deeply afraid that the US policy shift was part of a secret deal with the Russians, one that he had to head off.”
“One needs to remember that the ostensible liquidation of Syria’s sarin nerve gas stocks was a deal struck between Russia and the United States, in particular between Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and then US secretary of state John Kerry.”
That’s not the correct presentation of the facts. Russia intervened and persuaded Assad to liquidate its chemical arsenal precisely because neither Russia nor Syria want Syria to be partitioned. Let’s remember Russia has its only warm waters base in Syria, which depends on the integrity of Assad’s government to exist. It’s its only foothold in the ME. The probability of Russia agreeing to a peace accord based on the partition of Syria is zero, unless geopolitically checkmated. That was not the case, since Assad is on the verge of winning the war against ISIS/al-Nusra.
“It took the Russians nearly 48 hours to come up with an argument.”
Because it takes time to investigate and clear this sort of things. The only people who come with ready-made answers to complex things are people with lies. Syrian sources say local newspapers published the chemical attack before the attack even happened.
“Why? The answer is that Assad, as paranoid as he surely is, suspected that the American announcement on a change in policy against regime was an opening bid by the United States to cut a deal with the Russians on a general Syrian settlement.”
Assad is in the middle of a war of annihilation against a ferocious enemy who wants to kill him, his people, his children, rape his wife and enslave the rest. I think it’s a stretch to think Assad is thinking on politicking between things he doesn’t even have proper intelligence, let alone control, of.
About the nature of the Sarin, see this:
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/04/syria-us-creates-new-air-support-request-scheme-for-al-qaeda.html#more
All I have to state here is that, yes – the terrorists have the means to produce Sarin; and, yes, the terrorists have the means to receive it from Turkey, which has a chemical arsenal. So the explanation of the Syrian government is credible.
Assad is so sure about the use of chem weapon because he got the super power behind him – The Russia and partner Turkey as well as Iran. USA Pres. Trum just could not stand up to such civilian suffering and decided to use Tamahawk to partially punish B. Al-Assad. However, it appears that Assad knew it before the missiles would strike and had minimize his regime’s loss! Another Russian connection??
He’s just a piece of crap, maybe american or brit
this explanation is one of menny and time will tell the truth
The job of punishing Syria for dropping nerve gas bombs on civilians should be left to recently formed "Islamic NATO army"! It is being led by Retd. General Raheel of Pakistan. The force. Is created by 50 plus Islamic nations to protect Islamic interest of Muslim countries.
SAA is advancing on all fronts, including Idlib countryside… so, why invade the football field if your team is winning?
And just like that Amercans are back in Syria. Instead of giving winded explanation of Why Assad would do it and reaching conclusion that he must have gone mad and decided to commit suicide, look at Americans. Steve Bannon is out, American war dogs are satisfied and Trump is now ther own man, God Americans have commited so many murders that every time anything like this happens people should first look at Criminal Americans. 90% it is these criminals and they have most to gain. Another 5% chance Turks have done it to bring Syria back in play.
Stephen Bryen, works for Mossad,, Do I neet to tell more?!
Too much IQ!!
And the punishment has been swift and severe. Stupid Assad and clever Donald Trump. The USA is the leader of the world and Assad has stabbed its friend, Russia in the back.
Why support a lie and fail to condemn American aggression?
I think this explanation makes complete sense. Using Sarin has no significant military impact and comes with serious blowback and embarrassment to Russia. An obvious affront to their guarantors. Heading off a bad deal made through back channels seems plausible.