The South China Sea — despite all of the controversy, so-called “historical claims” and the growing chances of blood being spilled over it — is the beating heart of Asia’s economy.
The rationale for such a statement is straightforward. This vital part of the global commons, home to some US$5.3 trillion in seaborne trade, is the world’s richest shipping route, carrying critical natural resources that power China, Japan, South Korea and many other Asian economies.
Economics demand that the South China Sea is a strategic waterway of the upmost importance. From massive island building and militarization of such features by Beijing, Washington’s freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS), to nations like Vietnam who are working to reinforce and militarize their own claims, what has been dubbed “Asia’s Cauldron” will certainly remain one of the Asia-Pacific’s great hotspots for years to come.
We have ample ways to respond, and removing your drone seems like just a slap on the wrist
Now this vital sea has an additional purpose — setting the stage for important signaling between the world’s two largest economies and militaries over an island nation that was thought by many to be relegated to the past as being a source of tension.
Indeed, the South China Sea is being used by China to send an important message to the United States and President-elect Donald Trump on the issue of Taiwan.
“Trump’s call to Taiwan was perceived as a slap in the face by the Chinese leadership and the Chinese people. Don’t mess with our perceived sovereignty over Taiwan, our own ‘red line,’ you cross at your peril,” according to a respected academic in Shanghai.
“We have ample ways to respond, and removing your drone is what, in my opinion, seems like just a slap on the wrist. I know many officials who wanted much a much more robust response,” said the academic in reference to the US underwater drone taken by a Chinese naval vessel in the South China Sea last week.
The drone incident was a clear marker that China will use all means necessary — and increasingly asymmetric measures selected for their difficulty to respond to — in an effort to demonstrate to America that Taiwan is clearly what Beijing commonly refers to as a “core interest.”
In China’s own version of a “red line,” before such a term was in vogue, Beijing has stated on countless occasions it would fight to defend its perceived sovereignty over Taiwan should the US or anyone else threaten it.
The story of Taiwan’s emergence as a flashpoint — while certainly not a headline driver for the last several years — is nothing new to those closely following Asian geopolitics.
As Chinese Communists took control of most of the mainland at the end of a long civil war in the late 1940s, Nationalist Chinese under Chiang Kai-shek fled to the island of Formosa, what we today call Taiwan.
Continuing on their “Republic of China” away from the mainland, Taiwan has transformed into a budding democracy and free market economy. It is the 10th largest trading partner of the US and has one of the largest economies in Asia.
Underpinning Taiwan’s success are tensions over the island democracy’s uncertain status. Since the 1970s, the US and China have essentially agreed to disagree. Under the “one-China” policy, Washington transferred its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. However, unofficial ties were kept intact with Taiwan as well as robust defense and economic links.
Robust democracy
But change is in the air in Washington, thanks to the election of Donald Trump to the presidency. Conservative foreign policy analysts, a distinguished group of leading China specialists advising Trump, want to see Taiwan once again play a bigger part in the Asia-Pacific community.
Unhappy that a robust democracy is treated as if it simply does not exist, many center-right leaning Asia hands in Washington are itching to see Taipei’s status elevated, perhaps reaching a level just a touch below full diplomatic recognition as a sovereign state.
Combined with the fact that many Republican national security experts have grown increasingly frustrated over China’s coercive actions that have slowly changed the status-quo in its favor throughout Asia, Taiwan provides an important opportunity to show Beijing that Washington has ample options to alter the balance of power, much to China’s angst.
But such a change in policy is causing great fear in Beijing according to various sources this author has spoken with who are close to the Chinese Communist Party and the military.
Fearful that America’s changing attitudes towards Taiwan could lead Taipei to consider what Beijing considers unthinkable — a move towards outright independence— Chinese planners have been carefully considering their response to President-elect Trump’s call with Taiwan’s president and along with tough rhetoric.
The response they have seemed to settle on, at least for now, is to capture a drone hundreds of miles beyond their coast, indeed, only 50 miles from the strategically important naval base at Subic Bay, beyond the limits of their hotly disputed nine-dash-line claim in the South China Sea.
Chemical weapons
Just because a great power, even a superpower, says it is willing to go to war over something that has been declared of vital importance does not mean it always happens.
Case in point: President Obama declaring the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime in Syria as a “red line.” While America did not go to war in a response to its crossing, there is every indication that China would respond very differently if it felt Taiwan was moving towards independence.
“I want to be very clear, Taiwan is not Syria. Taiwan is more like the right hand of [the] collective soul of the Chinese people — no one is going to cut it off without a bloody fight,” explained a retired Chinese People’s Liberation Army official who agreed to speak on the understanding his comments would be provided as background and his identity protected.
“What most western analysts don’t understand is that our President, Xi Jinping, as well as the Chinese leadership, have staked their reputation on the fact that Taiwan would someday return home under the Communist Party.
“At the very least, in the short to medium term, the status-quo must be preserved. If anything is done to undermine this fact, China will take steps to remind anyone we now have the power to respond, with tremendous power. China is not Iraq.”
So how could China respond, or at the very least defend its core interest in Taiwan? Let there be no doubt, what the Chinese official above refers to is a military that was essentially rebuilt to give the United States pause, and deter its entry into in a crisis over Taiwan.
While Chinese military planners clearly set upon a path to develop a more advanced military after the conclusion of the First Gulf War, an event much closer to home only helped to reinforce Beijing’s worst fears: that its armed forces were terribly obsolete.
The 1995-1996 crisis over Taiwan, when the United States sent two carrier battlegroups (CBGs) to deter China from action, only reinforced Beijing’s fears. In a 2013 monograph by Dr Andrew Erickson of the US Naval war College, Erickson gets to the heart of the matter: “The deployment of the USS Nimitz and USS Independence Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) in response to China’s missile tests and military exercises in the Taiwan Strait was a move that China could not counter at that time.”
Superior military power
Indeed, when faced with a superior military power with technologically advanced weapons, China would have no ability to compete for at least a decade or more. It is largely because of careful analysis of this crisis that Beijing would come to fear the power of America’s CBGs and their ability to negate almost any Chinese action.
The crisis would also guide China’s thinking on the development and acquisition of new weapons systems that could provide an asymmetric advantage and negate America’s technological edge in a reasonable timeframe.
In the years since, Chinese military planners began an important effort to blunt the advantages of American CBG’s. To do this, they looked to an existing technology they already possessed: missiles. While media reports of weapons with the ability to strike carriers are commonplace, there is a clear line from the 1995-1996 Taiwan crisis and China’s deployment over the last several years of a missile-centric anti-access/area-denial strategy.
“Taiwan, being a core interest of the People’s Republic, was something we found we could not defend back in the mid to late 1990s. Our political and military leadership was embarrassed over the way America could easily crush our forces if they so choose. We needed to find a way to compete,” explained a retired Chinese naval officer, again, speaking on background.
Another important example that demonstrates this line of thinking is from the testimony of Larry Wortzel to the US Congress in 2009,
“I was the Army Attaché in Beijing in 1995 to 1997-98, and the first time a senior Chinese military officer of the General Staff Department mentioned ballistic missiles attacking carriers was after our two carriers showed up, and he put his arm around my shoulder and said we’re going to sink your carriers with ballistic missiles.”
China would henceforth embark on a program to develop what is referred to as the DF-21D, the first deployed medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile (commonly referred to as an ASBM or a “carrier killer”) with the capability to strike a moving capital ship on the high seas. With a range of approximately 1500+km, such a weapon would be the first ballistic missile with the accuracy to — at least in theory — deliver a mission kill to a capital ship.
Such a missile, and follow on projects such as an even longer range variant of this weapon, cruise missiles, mines, ultra-quiet submarines and other weapons were created in large part over fears that America would once again use its massive military advantages against China over Taiwan — and that such action must be deterred.
What can be seen as a looming American policy shift over Taiwan, as important as this is, must be understood in the context of a much larger strategic recalibration that is taking place.
American policymakers working for Team Trump are clearly looking to push back against China’s aggressive actions throughout the Asia-Pacific. Taiwan is not the end of such a shift, but likely the opening act to help ensure the status-quo throughout the entire region is preserved.
While such a move should be applauded, Trump’s team must understand the limits of what Beijing can swallow before it takes decisive action. Any move that looks like outright support of independence could increase tensions dramatically, with China pushing back in the South China Sea, against important US allies like Japan in the East China Sea, or even in the cyber arena. President-elect Trump has every right to pursue stronger ties with Taiwan, but needs to proceed carefully and not over reach.
This is why now more than ever, Trump’s advisers would be wise to start detailing a much more comprehensive vision of relations with not only China, but the Asia-Pacific region as a whole.
“China has one question for Mr Trump: what do you want? What is your policy? Even if we don’t like it, it is better than a vacuum of knowledge. We don’t want to overreact.” explained the Chinese academic in Shanghai.
It seems certain we will find out soon enough.
Harry J. Kazianis (@grecianformula) is director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest, founded by former US President Richard M. Nixon, as well as Executive Editor of The National Interest. In the past, Kazianis has managed the foreign policy communications of The Heritage Foundation and served as Editor of The Diplomat.
I love China and the Chinese people, but —"For 45 years, my predecessors have committed themselves to a partnership that would help China develop economically and resume its place of prominence among nations. We have believed in helping build a better future for China’s people. Our own national life has been enriched by this contact. This is an achievement of which China’s people, and our own, and the world’s can be proud.
But the relationship has been built on assumptions of balance and mutual benefit. We would open ourselves to China’s people and ideas, and China would be open to ours. We would incorporate Chinese firms into our economy, and our firms would have a fair chance within China. The events of recent years have forced us to reconsider whether China’s leaders still view this as a balanced and mutually beneficial relationship. We hope that on their side they, too, are reconsidering their recent actions and will return to the cooperative path. Chinese leaders often quote famous dictums from their literature, and I will cite one of our famous American sayings: We can do this the easy way, or the hard way. The United States would prefer the easier path of cooperation, which has been so beneficial to our two countries. But we are preparing for the hard way."
Oh, Oh! The new giant is rising in Asia. I better how to use chop-sticks to start with in my Institute classes
The most important consideration is that Trump’s approach to Taiwan is probably most unwelcome in all of Asia except in Japan and pro-independent elements in Taiwan. This includes the KMT and its supporters. Most of Asia is drawing closer to China because it provides stability and will never be the source of a crisis which will take down economies like the crisis of 2008, the latest in a long line of economically destructive crises which capitalism creates, and especially in its imperialist epoch. The US will find no support for a program of increased hostility toward China.
As far as carrier battle groups are concerned, they clearly will not be a reliable force for the US to impose its will in the region, since they are opposed by increasingly effective land based forces. Whether the US could sail its carriers around Taiwan with impunity is uncertain today, will become even more uncertain in the future, and that uncertainty will prevent the US from attempting to do so.
Bloviations of a Kool-Aid saturated public-relation hack for American exceptionalism. Probably a CIA-commissioned article from a CIA-funded policy tank. "China can qualify as the next boogieman for the National Security State." Riiiight!
Irrelevant and forgettable. Get a real job.
Continuing to claim that Assad was responsible for the so-called sarin attack on Gouta, a proven false flag incident, nullifies any credibilty for Mr. Kazianis. Fail.
Are you kidding? LOL.
Nuke China, Mr. Trump and make Asia great again, without China of course..
If I’m Trump on Jan. 20th at 12:05EST I order 3 full carrier groups to the South China Sea.
What America should do it work with our allies near china and build a island as a military base with air strip and anti ship, air craft missles and navy yard – better yet build up a man made island to counter China’s. china’s military got very advanced off of Bill Clinton selling them advance technologies they use for military plus America’s military buildrs of our war machines did not protect thier computer oe vet the people working in these high tach places. Now china has the military might because of America helping them – all the cheap disposable product we buy from them go diricty to building thier military up with very advance stuff. Tawian is way more important than China who is a hard line comunist nation, I would not want to live there at all or even visit the place. What we must do is put our military on Tawian once and for all. Have the best air force, navay ships and sub, massive rockets, alot of anti air craft missle with anti ship missles plus we must put nukes thier. why are we even buying these cheap disposable products from a hard line comunist country, we have fought in wars since the end of ww2 to stop comunism from spreading yet we let china take advantage of us with very unfair trade – why does this happen, congress being bought off from big businesses so they can buy on the cheap and jack up the price to even get more richer. Tawian makes much better products and a low price and remember buying these when I was younger and they were made much better than China’s bull shit products. we should support and trade with free countries instead of a hard line comunist country who supress thier people and do not let them have freedom. I hope Trump puts the slap down on China, it must be done for thier too powerful now and will over power us in due time if we don’t stop our stupid government policeys. every time I have to buy something – made in china, makes me sick kn owing I’m supporting hard line comunism plus how bad they treat thier people. they under value thier money, put import tax on our products yet our assinine government lets them bring in sorry products with no import tax. We must put china back in the box for they are getting very aggressive and pushing thier might over the whole china sea.
All mI read from these articles was hog wash – people fail to see the dangers of China – a hard line comunist country. They are taken over the whole china sea and even build a man made island with air strip for bombers and fighters jets, anti ship missle and air craft plus navl ship, what will they take over next. all the countries near them are scared to death. China is taking over these countries fishing which is way important for them, China running off fishing boats, crashing into them. china is making america weaker and screwing us on trade so bad. they hack our compputers, steal all out high tach and military stuff and read where people on here are pro China. To be free people you have to fight to stay that way. I don’t want war at all but we must stop china in it’s track unless you want to become a Chinese citizen. I pray trump stops this very un fair trade plus builds up Tawians military power to where China will not want to invade plus we should give Tawian nuke missles to stop China from ever invading. I support Tawian over China any day. Tawian is a democarcy, China is a hard line comunist country. who would you prefer to be friends with and trade with. Keeping China so rich just keeps the comunist hard liners in power. Tawian all the way – China go to hell.
You need to ponder what happens to American enemies and quit swallowing the bait your government controled media is feeding you. If China wants war it will be a wholefull day for China. The weapons you know about is just the tip of the iceberg. Trust me you don’t want none of this bud.
Galen Linder think you forgot about thirty other countries in WWII there buddy, and ignored that the US supported China in WWII.
Galen Linder Good but failing attempt at deflecting from the question at hand.
UC erkely irrelevat to real life anywher in the US and a great source of aid and comfort to Americ’s enemies, domestic and foreign.
Well brain washed ignorant of reality moron.Typical of Berkeley.
America via the traitor/coward obama,and his fellow cowards/traitors, has made herself weaker and opened the doors world wide for the growth of her enemies.
I see no mention of North Korea which is sort of like a Chinese-sponsored terrorist group as nobody can claim that China has no influence over them.
Interesting how Iran, Russia and China help Syria and now North Korea helps Iran with nuclear training and testing in exchange for Iran giving North Korea some of those $150+ billion the US paid Iran. So much for sanctions against either Iran or North Korea for years. So, under Obama, Russia gains Crimea, China gains South China Sea, Iran gains $150+ billion and path to nukes in just a few years, and North Korea gains nukes and missile upgrades and Iranian money to overcome sanctions… Thanks Obama for also bombing more countries since WW2 than any other leader. I feel so much safer – – – NOT!!
You really know nothing about military tactics especially naval tactics.
For the first time, China is facing a US President who actually sees what is going on, who is clever enough to use misdirection, ambiguity, and unpredictability. It comes at the right time. For many years the US has foolishly operated under idiotic trade deals allowing China to sell unimpeded in to the US markets while China uses tariffs, licenses that are never granted, endless delays, "safety restrictions" and innumberable hurdles to preclude US sales to China (like the situation with Japan but much worse) with the end result of a $500B/y trade deficit. This will not be permitted to continue. In a trade deal, China can only use. By levelling the deficit America’s manufacturing strengthens, China’s economy declines and China’s ability to fund their expanding military declines.
For the first time, China is facing a US President who is putting great business people in charge of acquisitions and systems creation. When he turns down the $4B personal jet or $1.5T F35 it is a vision of creating a superior system that is more cost-effective, a flexible system not susceptible to the asymmetric attack China plans. America will be working to create an alliance of surrounding states – Russia, S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Phillippines – each of whome stand to lose something valuable to Chinese aggression and back it up with an improved navy able to interdict Chinese shipping and shut down their economy.
The times are changing. America is awakening.
President Trump, let’s knock the hell out of made in China AIRCRAPP carrier in the South China Sea
trump is gonna turn china into a vagina. hahahaha, trump.
Galen Linder Yeah but your commie bastard freinds have been invading Viet Nam since time began.You know nothing about politics nor military tactics,especialy USN tactics.
No other country has splilled more of it’s own blood or spend more of it’s own treasure to free other nations than the United States. If not for us the Japanese would be ruling China and Germany and the Soviet Union would be in charge of Europe. Are we a perfect nation? no, we are not; but we darn sure are a better and more ethical nation than many on the earth today.
Joseph M. Giramma Thats true the world is much more safer and peacful place than it has ever been under USA dominance but is not oerfect by a long shot. I think a China led world would be ok also I think they are wise and just as most or any.
Tyler Brown I beg to differ. I have been involved in China with work, living, etc. since 1984. It is simply a choice. I simply am unable to deal with the Chinese and am very skeptical of ANTHING they say. But of course, that is simply my personal experience and education.
So the fact that the Peoples Republic of China (a curious name since the "people" of China have no say in their government) puts down any opposition to it’s rule, any difference of opinion, and is not above a bullet to the back of the head. Remember Tianamen Square, peaceful demonstrators? If the PRC was so great then Taiwan would be more than happy to rejoin, but it could just be that they like being able to decide how to live their own lives, what they want to do for a job, and speak as they please without the threat of a bullett in the back of the head. Taiwan has a choice and they have clearly shown they want nothing to do with the PRC.The Peoples Republic of China is simply a big bully who wants to rule with an iron fist and the only peoples welfare it cares about are the old men who rule and their favored few. If I were living in the PRC right now I would be getting a visit from the police and either sent off for "Reeducation, also known as torture or the good old shot to the head". Fortunately I live in a free country. While the USA is not perfect we don’t shoot protesters no matter how obnoxious they are.
If China destroyed one of our CBGs simply because we sailed around Taiwan, I’d support nuclear strikes on Beijing and the Three Gorges Dam.
Ricky Lee White A single use of an EMP based weapon over each of China’s most densley populated cities, together with a biological strike of a contagious illness would likely turn their billion strong population from an advantage and into a liability.
Derek Meche China did, when they free Korea from Japan occupation during 1600s.