The Russians are struggling on land and at sea, and are having real difficulty protecting themselves from Ukrainian long-range attack. That has left them with one real strategic “advantage” and that is what we will see the next few months.
As reports this week made clear, the Russian strategy is now to make Ukraine unlivable, particularly the major Ukrainian cities. It is, in two words, a strategy based on war crimes.
I thought it would be worthwhile trying to put this Russian strategy into some context. The Russians, as you know, are struggling on the land and Ukraine is showing more and more proficiency with its own ranged campaign.
This means that the Russians will be left relying on their own ranged campaign to have strategic effect and try to push the Ukrainians to take a deal that serves Russian interests – with the help of the US, it must always be remembered.
The Ukrainians, particularly President Volodymyr Zelensky, started talking openly in the last few days about what they expect from this Russian strategy, first in the Financial Times but then later directly. It holds out the possibility of being exceedingly gruesome.
Further information about Ukrainian successes in Operation Vivaldi, which contributed to this Russian plan, also came out this past week. More and more tasks are being done by robots, which are leading to fewer Ukrainian casualties.
On the other hand, Russian casualties are mounting and even prisoners seem to be being taken in larger numbers. Without the option of increased war crimes, the Russians would be seen to be losing the war.
Finally, there was a story that supplied details about a deal that has been long suspected (at least here) but which had until now remained opaque. Some details came out about the Russian payoffs that are being promised to secure the kind of deal on taking Ukrainian land and people that they want.
We might call this the real Jared Kushner win-win deal. It is as venal as one could have imagined, even in this extraordinarily venal time.
“He said there are no rules now.“
The “He” Zelensky is referring to here, not surprisingly, is Vladimir Putin. What is interesting is not that Putin was supposedly following “rules” of war before – which is, of course, nonsense. The Russians have not followed legalisms in their conduct of operations in any reasonable sense.
What restrictions they have put on their operations have been because of worry of Ukrainian retaliation, the fear of international reaction or, indeed, fear of what might happen to their own army or population.
Here, by the way, is Zelensky’s tweet on the claim.
For instance, up until now the Russians have not directly attacked Ukrainian nuclear power plants, not out of respect for the rules of law but because they understand that such an attack could rebound against them. It could cause a dramatic reaction across Europe and could even poison their own army/people.
Now, however, the Ukrainians are saying that they have direct intelligence saying that this winter (actually from now) the Russians are going to throw off almost all of their existing limitations to try and force the Ukrainian government to agree a deal that they want.
They will attack power, transport, even Ukraine’s water supplies to make civilian life impossible. The main targets of the Russian attacks will be Kyiv, Kharkiv Odesa and Lviv and the targets are those that have been discussed here for months.
Moreover, the Russians have a timeline in mind – hoping to make Ukrainian cities “uninhabitable,” cause another refugee crisis and force the Ukrainian government to make a deal in the first half of 2027.
The nuclear power plant attacks being mooted are worthy of discussion. In some ways they might simply be an acceleration of something that the Ukrainians have seen before — attempts not to blow up the plants themselves, but to disconnect them from the grid (which is in itself wildly dangerous). The prospect of increased Russian attacks on Ukrainian nuclear plants has been discussed for years (here is a detailed RUSI report on the subject from 2025).
The details released this week, particularly in a New York Times story indicate that the Russians might escalate their previous operations in some exceedingly dangerous ways, for instance in trying to cut the water supply (think cooling apparatus) to Ukraine’s three functioning nuclear plants.
These three plants are without doubt the most important surviving part of Ukraine’s power grid. The Russians have destroyed almost all the other large non-nuclear power generation sources from dams to power plants. With those out, Ukraine has been left with its nuclear power plants and a growing solar capability, for much of its power.
And this week was not comforting for those who believe the Russians will not take such a step.
This week we already had glimpses of the new “no rules” Russia that we are hearing about. The Russians launched two attacks on Kyiv’s major bridges. First, they attacked South Bridge twice this week, arguably the most important artery between the east and west sides of the city and one which carries the underground. As of now, the bridge is still closed for traffic.
Then, yesterday reports came out about attacks on North Bridge, which was hit on the supports holding the structure up.
The Russian MOD happily took credit for the attack, saying the attacks were to take down targets to “facilitate troop movements and the logistics of military cargo deliveries.” The real purpose though is to make Kyiv such a difficult place in which to live, particularly for the many who reside on the east side, that it will start the process of their leaving.
Other attacks this week that spoke to this new strategy were revealed when the Ukrainians mentioned that the Russians had utilized specially adapted Gerans to take down energy pylons. Here is an excerpt from Ukrainian reporting on the problem.
The overall thrust of the attacks is not surprising. The Russians are starting perhaps earlier than they might — which could be because they are worried Ukrainian anti-drone systems (ones designed to contend with the jet-powered drones) are progressing. It could be because they feel that their plans will take time, etc.
However, the overall direction of the Russian campaign is clear. Russia is trying to foment a much greater civilian crisis this year than in the past to force the Ukrainian government to accede to Russian demands and possibly force European states to put pressure on the Ukrainians to give in.
Why the Russians are doing this could actually be an interesting sign on the course of the war. Right now the Russians cannot advance on the ground, and their soldier losses are getting catastrophic.
Moreover, they are struggling with Ukrainian ranged attacks — which this week saw some more major refineries being hit. In much of the war, the developments are heading in Ukraine’s strategic direction —and the Russian inability to deal with these changes could be what is compelling Putin to double down on war crimes.
Add it up, and the Russian calculation seems pretty simple. Right now Ukraine can be hit, and war crimes are the way that they calculate Ukraine can be cowed. Moreover, Putin might be willing to take the risk that the Ukrainians will not respond by committing similar crimes – or the fact that US/European pressure might limit Ukraine’s response.
It is brutally simple logic. War crimes are what Russia has going for it technologically and militarily at present. Moreover, the Russians have seen from earlier US and European responses that they can commit extreme war crimes and nothing will change.
From a strategic point of view, not only do war crimes make sense but the Russians are practically being encouraged to commit them. This is the war we have created in the modern world. Do not look away.
Operation Vivaldi, even more robots
As said above, one of the reasons the Russians are going to double down on such war crimes is the front line war is not going well for them – and arguably seems to be getting worse.
Overall, Russian casualties are reaching extreme levels. In September the Ukrainian general staff pegged Russian military casualties at over 46,000—not only a monthly record but one that is almost 50% higher than Russian monthly casualties at the start of the year. Here is a monthly chart of 2026 Russian losses as estimated by the Ukrainians.
At the same time Russian recruitment seems to be struggling to replace anything close to these numbers. Analysis from the first part of the year, by German Institute for International and Security Affairs economist Janis Kluge judged that Russian forces recruited between 800 and 1,000 soldiers a day in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 1,000 to 1,200 a day in the first quarter of 2025.
Assuming that this number has not decreased further, this would leave the Russians with a real and continually growing decline in troop numbers.
And Vivaldi will not be making it any better for the Russians. Ukrainians believe that at least 5000 Russian casualties have been inflicted directly as the result of Vivaldi (we are only getting 3rd Corps reports so this is the floor) and interestingly there is a growing haul of prisoners. This week up to 250 Russians were said to have surrendered, and pictures of these Russian troops were circulating, including from the Ukrainian military (see picture at start).
Of course, it is important not to get too carried away with reports of Russian collapses or sweeping Ukrainian breakthroughs. Ukrainian advances have been steady and still slow by military history standards of the last 150 years. However even the admittedly restrained Deep State has them pushing back the Russians by five-to-10 kilometers in places. Here is their most recent map, with the liberated territories in light blue.
The reality might be more than this – but not quite like the wildly optimistic claims you will find on social media and the like. Here, for instance, are Ukrainian official claims on advances, which mirrors the Deep State maps.
What has been important this past week is not just steady Ukrainian advances, but the stories describing how they have been achieved. The Ukrainians are certainly doubling down on the use of unmanned vehicles, both new ones and some repurposed old military equipment.
Not to start with my personal hobbyhorse, but logistics now seem dominated by robots. Ukrainians are delivering about 80% of their supplies by unmanned vehicles – and evacuating 90% of their wounded. It is remarkable how many casualties in past wars happened because of such logistical duties. Now that is much less of an issue.
This is extraordinary: The future of military logistics is transforming in front of our eyes. Will definitely write about that soon.
Of course, it is not just logistics. Attack operations are also being undertaken by robots, from repurposed old vehicles to completely new ones. One of the examples of the former this past week came from Ukrainian claims of using repurposed manned vehicles (old Soviet BTR-60s) as unmanned kamikaze attack weapons. They packed these old armored vehicles with explosives and sent them as attack robots to hit Russian lines.
New generation, purpose-built unmanned ground vehicles are also operating daily. One of the most interesting reports of these was the use of new UGV grenade launchers. These UGVs approached Russian positions, fired at them, then continued toward the Russian shelters before detonating inside.
Maybe the most interesting detail from these attacks was the Ukrainian claim that they were able to remotely control these vehicles with their pilots in safe positions “tens of kilometers” behind the lines.
Considering the way technological advances and adaptations go in this war, this distance should grow – and that means fewer Ukrainian casualties and more Russian problems as time goes by. Zelensky himself spoke about how these operations are reducing Ukrainian losses.
So, Vivaldi is continuing and revealing more and more about Ukrainian preparations over the previous many months. It is a testament to using technology to change momentum. Its success is also why Russia is left to relying, more and more, on war crimes.
The Trump-Putin quid pro quo
In the least surprising news from the last few days, the New York Times reported yesterday about the business deals being set up between Putin and Trump, which will be run by their underlings. Here is a gift link to the article, which I encourage you to read.
Here is a quick description if you do not have the time.
These business deals are not new. They are part of a longer existing quid pro quo. Why do you think Trump has starved Ukraine of air defense? Why do you think the US government is putting immense pressure on Ukraine to give up more land and territory (even as the Ukrainians are pushing the Russians back)? Why do you think the Trump administration is leaking right and left that it wants to lift sanctions on Russia as soon as it can (gift link to an Atlantic article on this that I also encourage you to read).
Look, to get paid the serious money, the Trump administration needs to get Putin the win Putin wants and the win they want. That is the real Win-Win that Jared Kushner (see above in the NY Times piece) talked about when he did his infamous interview. Indeed, to make it obvious to even the thickest denier, Kushner stated openly that it was Ukrainian obstinance in not surrendering more land and people to Putin that was holding up the deal.
“President Putin’s laid out his line of what he wants to achieve. If Ukraine wanted to withdraw to that line, then obviously we have the rest of the deal set up and put together.”
I do not know how or why people are surprised by this. The Trump administration has made the US an accessory to Russian war crimes to enrich cronies and itself. All these stories are doing is confirming this. The dishonesty comes from those who have pretended for 20 months that Trump might actually help Ukraine in any meaningful way.
The real money comes rolling in when Ukraine is shafted. That is what is driving US policy.
Phillips O’Brien is professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrew.
Asia Times republishes the weekend update with permission from Phillips’s Newsletter, his reader-supported publication. To receive his other posts throughout the week, you can become a subscriber.
