The Trump-Putin phone call on April 29 lasted 90 minutes, both sides report. The call was initiated by Russia.
President Vladimir Putin told Trump that the current ceasefire in the Iran war was a good thing as it created space needed for negotiations. Russia formally offered its services as a mediator, a move that was expected judging from the recent visit of Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, to Moscow.
The telephone discussion turned to Ukraine, probably at President Trump’s initiative, suggesting that a ceasefire in Ukraine would be a good thing.
Putin apparently offered to implement a ceasefire during Russia’s Victory Day celebration. The parade takes place on May 9 to be followed by the Immortal Regiment remembrance, in which thousands of Russians walk with placards honoring their relatives lost in World War II, which claimed the lives of 27 million Russians.
Since the Ukraine war, western nations have boycotted the Victory Day parade and the Immortal Regiment.
There are a few things to notice about this year’s program. The first is that no weapons will be shown in the parade – neither tanks nor missiles.
Victory parades in Russia first took place starting in June, 1945 and continuing intermittently thereafter until 1995 when the parade was made an annual event celebrated on May 9. In the west we used to celebrate VE Day (Victory in Europe day) on May 8, the day Germany surrendered. But when the surrender was signed it was already May 9 in Moscow, so Russia’s Victory Day was held on that day.
Some US presidents attended Russia’s Victory day celebration including Bill Clinton (1995) and George Bush (2005). At least at the official level, President Trump did not receive an invitation from the Kremlin to attend this year’s parade.
The lack of a formal invitation to Trump is not surprising, as recently the Russians have mostly invited allies such as China and Belarus and assorted Central Asians and African leaders.
Trump has been pushing Putin to make a deal on Ukraine. Trump says he understands that, for all practical purposes, Russia has won its war with Ukraine.
An interesting article in Moscow Times, published on April 30, points out that both presidents appear to agree that the problem of finding a solution is in Kyiv and in Europe.
Trump’s own position also is fragile, as the US Congress, especially after King Charles’s speech, is inclined to push for more military support for Ukraine to fight the Russians, not less. Charles had nothing to say about a peace deal in Ukraine because Europe – including the UK – does not want one. The Europeans want the US to back them up militarily, even after spurning any support for the US operation in Iran and condemning US Middle Eastern policy.
It seems, however, that Trump still has his eye on a deal, and he wants to bring Russia along by asking Moscow to compromise on key issues including territories, ceasefires, and security arrangements for Ukraine. Trump is offering, in exchange, new nuclear arms deals with Russia and economic support for Russia’s economy.
It is very hard to tell how evolved the Trump-Putin engagement is at present. Long phone calls and a pattern of continuing engagement on economic and strategic matters suggest there is progress.
Assuming there is movement and that certain parts of a deal could be revealed, the May 9 parade may be the opening Trump is seeking. Some form of US participation would change the dynamic. Thus, while May 9 as a key event is strictly speculation, it is sitting there to be used if that is the decision in the White House and the Kremlin.
Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy undersecretary of defense. This article along with many others can be found in his newsletter Weapons and Strategy.