Russian drones downed by Poland possibly linked to NATO jamming

Poland said it shot down several Russian drones on Wednesday morning that reportedly crossed into its airspace during the latest wave of large-scale strikes against Ukraine.

This occurred amid the ongoing Polish, Lithuanian and NATO drills involving 30,000 Polish troops, and just ahead of the upcoming Russian-Belarusian Zapad 2025 drills.

Some observers suspect that this was either a deliberate provocation by Russia or a botched reconnaissance mission – though it may have just been due to NATO jamming.

It was recently argued that “There Might Be More To The Von Der Leyen-GPS-Russia Hoax Than Scoring Cheap Infowar Points” after the dramatic claim that Russia jammed her plane as it attempted to land in Bulgaria was debunked by Sofia and Western media.

An alternative theory suggested that this was a false narrative meant to justify aggressive signals jamming in Kaliningrad, though this could also have been aimed at Belarus, given its hosting of the upcoming Zapad 2025 drills.

Such interference may have caused Russian drones to veer off course into Poland during the latest large-scale strikes against Ukraine. Aggressive signals jamming could also precede the possible implementation of reported plans to impose a no-fly zone over at least part of Ukraine, tied to the West’s proposed security guarantees.

Although nowhere as foolproof as patrols over Ukrainian airspace and authorizing NATO-based Patriots to protect its skies, such a move would carry a significantly lower escalation risk.

Moreover, if NATO expected that its speculative signals jamming – possibly ramped up after the von der Leyen-GPS-Russia hoax, which might have been timed to coincide with the upcoming Zapad 2025 drills – would cause Russian drones to veer off course, then this might be part of a preplanned escalation.

The objective could be to rally support for the no-fly zone proposal – or even to begin gradually implementing it under the pretext of “proactive defense” in light of this incident.

More than three and a half years into the “special military operation”, Russia would have by now presumably gamed out everything that could realistically follow the scenario of several of its drones crossing into Poland, with policymakers thus likely aware that this could be exploited to advance the no-fly zone agenda.

This insight, accordingly, reduces the odds that the incident was a deliberate provocation or a botched reconnaissance mission – either of which would likely have been carried out in force to make the cost-benefit tradeoff more worthwhile.

This follows a similar logic as in this analysis here arguing that Russia probably didn’t deliberately target the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kiev, in order to avoid fueling the no-fly zone plot.

While that particular incident might have been caused by stray drone debris, the latest one could have been much more planned – if NATO jamming was indeed responsible, as some have speculated. It remains to be seen, however, whether Poland will participate in any no-fly zone over Ukraine as a result.

Former President Andrzej Duda recently revealed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tried to manipulate Poland into war with Russia over the November 2022 Przewodow incident – a move Duda said he refused to fall for. Meanwhile, his successor, Karol Nawrocki, pledged ahead of the second round not to deploy troops to Ukraine.

This policy continuity, which aligns with rising Polish frustration with Ukrainian refugees and the ongoing neighboring conflict, could foil NATO’s plans to draw Poland into its plans – even though Warsaw might still agree to ramp up signals jamming.

This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.