Democratic showdown puts Widodo, Prabowo on the backfoot

Indonesian legislators have backed down from plans to ignore the country’s Constitutional Court over a controversial electoral ruling, as demonstrators attempted to storm parliament in protest against the proposals.

Jubilant supporters of the Constitutional Court have welcomed the decision, but many warn the government could yet press ahead with similar measures aimed at cementing the power of retiring President Joko Widodo and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who will succeed him on October 20.

The near constitutional crisis began on August 20, when the court handed down two key rulings. The first substantially lowered the nomination threshold for candidates running in regional elections, just days before the registration of candidates was due to take place.

With every major party bar one now backing Prabowo and Widodo, there were signs of coordination within the alliance to all back the same candidate in key regional races. The aim was to effectively block candidates critical of the government out of many key races.

Former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who looked likely to win a second term in office should he run, seemed the most prominent target. But many candidates from the PDI-P – Widodo’s old party, which is now increasingly opposed to him – stood to be affected.

The second Constitutional Court decision struck down a Supreme Court ruling relaxing minimum age requirements for political candidates.

Critics denounced the lower court decision as suspect, as the only potential candidate who looked to be affected by the change was the second son of President Joko Widodo, Kaesang Pangarep, who had been preparing to run for the post of deputy governor of Central Java.

Faced with this double blow, Indonesia’s parliament, which pro-government parties dominate, made plans to circumvent the rulings. Key legislators met hurriedly on August 21 with Minister of Law and Human Rights Supratman Andi Agtas, a member of Prabowo’s Gerindra party.

What emerged was a proposal to effectively ignore the court rulings, revising regional election law’s provisions on candidate eligibility and nominations in ways that flatly contradicted the verdicts.

The public reaction, however, was swift and angry. One image designed to look like a disaster warning system, complete with the text “Peringatan Darurat” (Emergency Alert), spread widely on social media. It was posted and reposted by several usually apolitical influencers, comedians and other celebrities, helping rally support and coordinate the protests.

On August 22, protestors launched major demonstrations across Indonesia. Kaesang’s candidacy and accusations that Jokowi wanted to build a political dynasty emerged as a particular focus.

Social media posts made by Kaesang’s wife as the protests swelled, which appeared to show the couple taking a private jet to America to start a university course there, did not help matters. A screenshot of her laptop showing her taking a class on social justice prompted further satire.

The key action, however, took place not on social media but on the streets. Attempts by protestors in Jakarta to storm parliament attracted the most attention.

But major protests also took place in major cities and towns across the archipelagic nation. In Ambon City and Makassar, protestors managed to break into their respective regional legislatures.

Activists with experience of past demonstrations who spoke to Asia Times claimed that the protests on August 22 seemed to reach beyond the usual groups. Many credited social media statements circulated by celebrities on their accounts for bringing out larger and more diverse crowds than usual.

Faced with this potent street-level opposition, parliament has scrapped the amending bill. Protestors reacted jubilantly, but many remain wary the government may seek to reintroduce the proposed changes once the demonstrations have died down.

“Yes, on the one hand, we’ve received positive news that the revision is not going to be carried out,” said Fikri Diaz, a law graduate who joined the Jakarta protests. “But we shouldn’t yet lower our guard.”

He cited how, in 2019, Widodo had resorted to signing a controversial Omnibus Bill in the middle of the night when most protestors were asleep to try and minimize disruption. Others are anxiously eying the elections commission to see if it will properly implement the court’s rulings.

The protests and near constitutional crisis have taken place against the backdrop of what critics say was a deterioration of democracy during the presidential election, which concluded in February earlier this year.

In October 2023, the Constitutional Court issued a ruling that allowed President Widodo’s first son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to be nominated as Prabowo’s vice-presidential running mate despite not meeting the minimum age requirement of 40.

The Chief Justice of the Court, Widodo’s brother-in-law, was later removed from his position for violating professional ethics in presiding over a case in which he had a clear conflict of interest.

During the election campaign, moreover, there were accusations that the two candidates opposing Prabowo faced harassment on the hustings and that the government had used welfare handouts to bolster Prabowo’s candidacy.

For many, the Constitutional Court’s rulings were an encouraging sign of democratic separation of powers in pushing back against perceived creeping anti-democratic practices.

“I think the Constitutional Court was giving a solution to the majoritarian tendencies we’re seeing today,” says Titi Anggraini, a constitutional lawyer and member of the Association for Elections and Democracy’s (Perludem) advisory board.

Indeed, the government and parliament’s bid to circumvent these court decisions was the last straw for many Indonesians worried about democratic backsliding.

“The surge in protest from the public is a classic case of ‘tipping point’ reality, where the latest raft of insults to our democratic values triggered a breaking point,” says Thomas Lembong, a former trade minister under Widodo.

He has since become critical of Widodo and is now politically close to rival Anies Baswedan. On August 22, Lembong gave a speech to protestors expressing his support while articulating worries about the declining state of Indonesia’s democracy.

“Some of our political elites have been breaking more and more political and social norms faster and faster over the last 12 months, testing the public’s patience and tolerance,” Lembong said in an interview with Asia Times.

“Until we got the backlash we see today, with public figures and famous actors and entertainers who’ve so far stayed studiously reticent finally speaking out,” he added.

Still, many worry that the showdown is far from over. In a murky series of events, the leader of Indonesia’s second-largest party – Airlangga Hartarto of Golkar – suddenly resigned on August 12 and was quickly replaced by a known Widodo ally.

Prabowo is also raising worries as the son-in-law of the former dictator Suharto, who stands accused of involvement in the kidnapping and disappearance of various pro-democracy activists in 1998.

“I think this is the new normal – rather than the be-all or end-all,” said Kevin O’Rourke, founder of the Jakarta-based risk consultancy Reformasi Information Services. 

“There is a strong impetus for curtailing democracy, and this is not the final test of that – but more likely the start of a protracted campaign. At some point, eventually and not necessarily in the near term, more rancor is likely, probably with violence and casualties,” O’Rourke predicted.