The most important thing to understand is whether the contradiction is within the people or between the people and their enemies. The former can be solved through discussion and debate; the latter can lead to conflict and war.
So said Mao Zedong, the founder and prophet of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), in his famous essay “On Contradiction.” The book has been a cornerstone for Chinese Marxism and the Chinese Communist Party’s way of thinking for decades.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has apparently decided that the issue with the United States lies between the people and their enemy, as evidenced by the solitude of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken upon departing from Beijing last week.
Only the American ambassador in Beijing was with him; no Chinese official accompanied America’s top diplomat to the airport.
“The US wants cooperation with and containment of China simultaneously. How do you expect China to react?” argued Chinese journalist Shen Shiwei on Twitter.
The lack of a red carpet for Blinken’s arrival and his lonely departure was meant to convey Beijing’s displeasure with the US administration, to both the Chinese and American people.
The US believes that even with enemies it is possible to collaborate on some matters and oppose each other on others, as was the case with the USSR during the Cold War. China may think differently, however.
In any case, whether or not Blinken was given the red carpet treatment, the US has decided it is not concerned with such chinoiserie.
Blinken was unfazed. His main objective was to deliver a message as clearly as possible: Beijing should cease its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, or there will be consequences.
After Blinken’s departure, China welcomed tech billionaire and Tesla founder Elon Musk, who canceled a trip to Delhi, India, to meet with Premier Li Qiang.
Beijing seems to trust that America’s wealthy can influence US politics. It appears that Beijing considers them to be the true power centers in America, capable of making the administration hear and heed Beijing’s arguments.
They are indeed important but US politics is very complex; the billionaires are just one component of the machine. If they act or are influenced to act, without sufficient coordination with other elements their actions can backfire.
Before World War II, Henry Ford, who was pro-fascist and the richest and most potent American industrialist at the time, supported Nazi Germany along with many other US “barons.” They were wiped out and silenced by the war.
Wise Chinese pundits advising Xi on America are right to look for paths other than direct government-to-government channels to influence and communicate with the political establishment.
However, political maneuvering anywhere is not a science; it’s an art and can backfire. The wave of anti-establishment protests in the 1960s and 1970s, triggered by opposition to the draft for the Vietnam War, didn’t undermine the US establishment but rather bolstered it.
The current wave of pro-Hamas demonstrations on US college campuses could do the same, especially since there is no Vietnam War tearing American society apart. Beijing might want to consider that taking an anti-government and anti-establishment stance in America could backfire, too.
Similarly, it could be unwise for the US to bet against Xi, the keystone holding the country together. Though not everyone in China may be pleased with him, their power and welfare depend on his leadership.
If Xi were removed, the entire national edifice could collapse. Therefore, despite some grumbling, it’s unlikely that anyone would take action unless there is a severe political setback, either international or internal. And even then, it’s uncertain what could happen.
Meanwhile, the dangerous division in American foreign politics is prompting nearly everyone to postpone decisions and wait for the presidential election outcome. Many fear that the arrival of a new president could change or overthrow the current administration’s policies.
However, the situation is not frozen; rather, it is deteriorating across all major areas. Problems are piling up and it will be difficult for any president, whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump, to manage them.
It is crucial for Republicans and Democrats to agree on a foreign policy line today to ensure continuity in American policy to prevent further deterioration and assure a smooth transition for the incoming president after November’s election.
Republished with the permission of the Appia Institute. Read the original here.
So when does the “kicking the can down the road” will end?