China has launched the world’s first dedicated drone carrier, signaling a potential dramatic shift in its naval power projection with cost-effective unmanned aerial operations in a potential war with the United States.
This month, Naval News reported that China has built the world’s first dedicated drone carrier at Jiangsu Dayang Marine shipyard on the Yangtze River. The design is smaller than regular aircraft carriers and slightly shorter but wider than World War II escort carriers, according to the report.
The design allows fixed-wing aircraft to operate from it but its straight deck arrangement would be anachronistic and limit the number of aircraft it can carry, the report said.
Drones are becoming increasingly prevalent in naval warfare, with leading navies already trialing them from regular aircraft carriers.
For example, Iran’s Shahid Mahdavi drone carrier is a rebuilt commercial cargo vessel. Turkey repurposed its TCG Anadolu amphibious assault ship, which was intended to carry F-35 fighters, into a drone carrier after being removed from America’s F-35 program in 2019.
Naval News notes China’s built-for-purpose drone carrier’s unusual design, with a wide-spaced catamaran hull and low flight deck, suggesting that aircraft intend to land on it.
The report notes that China’s drone carrier is likely intended to support large fixed-wing UAVs at sea, with China having an extensive program of simulating Western and Western-leaning navies’ ships in its weapon testing program, including anti-ship ballistic missile tests on full-size outlines of US Navy aircraft carriers.
Naval News says several high-tech target barges and two large drone motherships have already been built at the shipyard. Known as “Electronic Blue Force,” they perform as opposing forces in training.
The Naval News report also says China’s drone carrier could be operated more cheaply from shore or serve as an experimental platform for testing and developing drone operations at sea.
China’s new drone carrier may have significant implications in terms of offering substantial power projection capabilities at a fraction of the cost of an aircraft carrier.
In an October 2023 UK Defense Journal article, Alexander Gates mentions that drone carriers offer the same power projection advantages as conventional aircraft carriers, allowing states to conduct unmanned aerial operations at greater distances outside their territory. Gates says this increases available tactical, operational and strategic options.
He notes that unmanned systems are a safer and more cost-effective alternative to manned aircraft, making them suitable for dangerous tasks such as intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and light attack operations, both at sea and on land.
Gates mentions that drone carriers present a cost-effective and practical option for middle-income states to extend their airpower capabilities over long distances without relying on land bases.
He says such states could expand unmanned aerial capabilities over low-intensity conflict zones with coastal access, providing new options to assist allies militarily and undermine opponents with little or no viable air defenses.
However, he says until unmanned aircraft can establish air superiority, drone carriers will not mark a “revolutionary moment” in military affairs. He points out that drones’ operational freedom is severely curtailed in environments with capable air defense systems and electronic warfare capabilities.
Given those constraints, Gates argues that aircraft carriers will still be indispensable in the short and medium term.
In a potential Taiwan conflict, China will likely launch drone swarms from land and ships, aiming to overwhelm the self-governing island’s air defenses in preparation for more extensive air and missile strikes as a prelude to an amphibious assault.
In a March 2024 Modern Warfare Institute (MWI) article, Zachary Kallenborn says drone swarms can be applied to almost any mission, including attacking transport and landing craft, taking on the tactical role of mortars and more.
However, Kallenborn notes that developing and maintaining large, multidomain drone swarms integrated into a specially designed mothership for transport requires significantly greater technical skill, resources, logistics, production and maintenance capability than developing and maintaining small quadcopter swarms.
He also says these limitations affecting individual drones will also restrict drone swarms, especially if they are designed to be stealthy and have radar-absorbent materials, as they require more resources, technical know-how and infrastructure.
China may also know its aircraft carriers’ vulnerabilities and seek ways to mitigate them by developing drone carriers. In addition to drone carriers, China may opt to develop its light carriers or integrate drone swarm capability into existing warships.
Asia Times pointed out this month that the staggering costs of operating aircraft carriers and their increasing vulnerability will make them potentially ineffective in contemporary warfare.
From China’s perspective, US and allied efforts to build a “missile wall” in the First Island Chain stretching from Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines could imperil its fledgling carrier fleet.
US and allied missile batteries in the First Island Chain can constrain China’s capability to break into the open Pacific, forestalling a flanking maneuver against Taiwan via the Miyako Strait and the Bashi Channel.
It thus makes strategic sense for China to rethink its aircraft carrier concepts and reduce its dependence on a few large, expensive and potentially vulnerable ships.
One solution may be to modify its Type 079 amphibious assault ships into FC-31 stealth fighter light carriers, similar to the US “lightning carrier” concept.
While China has the shipbuilding capacity to build a fleet of light carriers to spread out its naval aviation and increase survivability against US and allied threats, they may offer marginal value over China’s land-based airfields and airbases in the South China Sea.
They would also be exposed to attack from US and allied submarines, aircraft and long-range missiles.
At the same time, light carriers’ tiny air wings mean they can suffer from an “offensive-defense” dilemma. Committing more aircraft to an attack would leave the carriers vulnerable while retaining more aircraft for fleet air defense would decrease attack power.
China could also integrate drone swarm capability into larger combatants such as the Type 055 cruiser and Type 052D destroyers. Such drones could be launched from vertical launch systems (VLS) or bolt-on box launchers.
Allocating a fraction of the Type 055 cruiser’s 128 VLS tubes or the Type 052D’s 64 VLS tubes to hold multiple swarming drones per tube could add a formidable capability to these warships’ already potent weaponry.
However, allocating some VLS tubes to accommodate swarming drones may deprive these warships of valuable space to mount more capable weaponry, such as the YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missile.
In the advent of war with the United States, another solution for China would be to take out the US “missile wall” with tactical nuclear weapons. An added benefit would be that China signals how fraught a full-on war over Taiwan will be, without China having to attack the US mainland with strategic nukes. But what would be left of Taiwan after such an encounter? For both sides, would it be worth destroying Taiwan — and killing most of its population — in order to save it?
Forget not the airborne and submarine drone motherships. The PLA also has airborne mother drones that can separate into a clutch of baby drones during the attack phase.