The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region’s (HKSAR) latest anti-democracy show trial began on December 18, 2023. The defendant in the dock this time is tycoon and activist Jimmy Lai Chee-ying.
Lai is accused of “conspiring to collude with foreign forces” under China’s national security law for the HKSAR and conspiring to “print, publish, sell, offer for sale, distribute, display and/or reproduce seditious publications” under the HKSAR’s sedition law. If convicted, Lai could be sentenced to life in prison.
On January 2, 2024, Lai pleaded not guilty to all charges. However, given how Hong Kong’s once-independent judicial system has operated since China promulgated the national security law in June 2020, Lai’s conviction is almost a foregone conclusion. The only real outstanding question about the show trial is the length of Lai’s prison sentence.
So why Jimmy Lai? Lai made his initial fortune by creating the well-known Hong Kong clothing brand, Giordano. Founded in 1981, Giordano specialized in producing fashionable, value-for-money clothing geared for Asia’s growing middle class.
Giordano’s retail stores were also popular for the high-quality customer service offered – a rare feature in much of Asia. Giordano currently operates over 2,000 stores in more than 30 countries.
Lai first crossed paths with China’s leaders in 1989, when he donated thousands of dollars to provide food, clothing and other assistance to the Tiananmen Square protesters. His stores also sold t-shirts featuring the faces of some of the student leaders of the Tiananmen protests.
In 1990, Lai began publishing the weekly magazine, Next, which featured a combination of in-depth political and economic investigative journalism and tabloid-like sensational stories on Hong Kong celebrities.
Next frequently ran stories critical of China’s leaders and China’s political and economic policies. Within a year, Next was the most widely circulated magazine in Hong Kong’s highly competitive market.
After Giordano entered the mainland China retail market in 1992, Chinese officials began applying pressure on the company, seemingly because of Lai’s political activism. Regarding how his political activism adversely affected Giordano, Lai once said:
If I really treated business like a businessman, I wouldn’t have done what I have done — opposing China. No businessman in their right mind would do this, because you know that there will be repercussions.
In 1994, Lai sold his interests in Giordano and shifted most of his professional activities to his growing publications business.
In 1995, Lai launched Apply Daily, a Chinese-language newspaper. Like Next, the newspaper featured in-depth political and economic articles and exposes on Hong Kong’s VIPs. Apple Daily also ran stories critical of China’s policies and embarrassing to its leaders.
Like Next, Apple Daily soon had the largest circulation of all of Hong Kong’s newspapers. For more than 20 years, Lai, Apple Daily and Next published many articles critical of the PRC and HKSAR governments.
In 2001, Lai moved to Taiwan, apparently disillusioned by the political developments in Hong Kong following its return to Chinese sovereignty on July 1, 1997.
Lai was reportedly particularly dismayed by the resignation of long-time civil servant, Anson Chan Fang On-sang. For China’s leaders, Lai’s pro-Taiwan stance was another unforgivable insult to the People’s Republic of China.
In 2014, Lai was a vocal supporter of the Umbrella Movement and his newspaper and magazine printed many positive stories about the street protest movement and criticisms of PRC and HKSAR governments’ responses.
The Umbrella Movement was sparked by a decision by the PRC’s Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress that indefinitely postponed the adoption of democratic elections in Hong Kong and placed serious restrictions on if and how democracy would be permitted in the city.
The movement obtained its name after protesters used umbrellas to defend themselves from tear gas deployed by the Hong Kong Police Force.
Lai was a frequent participant in the three-month-long protest that for a period of time shut down major roads in Hong Kong’s Admiralty district as well as parts of Causeway Bay and Mongkok.
Lai’s current trial is principally in response to his participation in and support for the protest movement that took place in 2019 and 2020. This round of large-scale protests was launched in response to a proposal to amend Hong Kong’s extradition ordinance to permit the transfer of alleged criminals from Hong Kong to the PRC for prosecution.
Like he did in 2014, Lai provided support for the protesters via Apple Daily and Next, and openly called for the international community to impose sanctions on the PRC and HKSAR governments.
Although the HKSAR government is going to great lengths to follow proper legal procedures in Lai’s trial, the outcome is a foregone conclusion—Lai will be found guilty.
The only uncertainty concerns how long of a sentence he will be given. Under the national security law, Lai could be sentenced to life in prison; the maximum punishment for sedition under the Hong Kong ordinance is two years for the first offense and three years for the second offense.
This is not the only criminal case Lai is facing, though. In April 2020, Lai was arrested with 14 other activists, including Martin Lee, for their involvement in the 2019-2020 protests. Even if Lai is given a relatively light sentence in this trial, he could be given a harsher sentence in a subsequent one.
In the end, the punishment Lai receives may be more designed to send a signal to the people of Hong Kong. In Cantonese, there is a saying – saat gai ging hau – “kill the chicken to scare the monkey.” Sadly, the HKSAR government may decide to make Lai a sacrificial chicken.
Michael F Martin taught at Hong Kong Baptist University from 1991-1992, served as the Hong Kong Trade Development Council’s assistant chief economist from 1994-1998 and was lead analyst on Hong Kong for the Congressional Research Service from 2007-2021.