Vietnam’s presidency is an increasingly hazardous occupation for what is mainly a ceremonial position. Vo Van Thuong is the second president in a row to fail to serve a full term in office, having taken over from his predecessor Nguyen Xuan Phuc just over a year ago.
Thuong submitted his resignation on Wednesday, which was accepted by the Central Committee of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) the same day. The party said in a statement that Thuong’s “violations and shortcomings” had “left a bad mark on the reputation of the Communist Party”, without elaborating on his alleged transgressions.
His resignation comes amid a heated anti-bribery campaign, known locally as “blazing furnace”, aimed at eradicating corruption within the party and in the wake of a Ministry of Public Security (MPS) investigation into alleged foul play at real estate developer Phuc Son.
The Phuc Son probe has led to the arrest of a dozen or more officials on corruption charges, including in Quang Ngai Province, where Thuong served as party secretary between 2011 and 2014. Thuong’s relatives are reportedly among the beneficiaries of Phuc Son’s largesse.
Thuong’s potential replacements are a who’s who of contenders for the role of general secretary of the CPV, which is up for election in 2026. As with the general secretary position, only those who have already served a full term in the Politburo are eligible for the presidency.
There are only five candidates who currently qualify under the rules – current General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Chairman of the National Assembly Vuong Dinh Hue, Minister of Public Security To Lam and Standing Member of the CPV Secretariat and Head of the CPV Central Organization Commission Truong Thi Mai.
Of these contenders, Trong is unlikely to retake the presidency after voluntarily giving it up at the 2021 Party Congress while continuing to serve as general secretary. Chinh and Hue already have superior positions within the country’s “big four” of general secretary, president, prime minister and chairman of the National Assembly.
While To Lam reportedly removed himself as a candidate during discussions on who should replace Phuc in 2023, there’s no guarantee he won’t vy for the post this time around.
While on paper it might make little sense to give up control over the extremely powerful Ministry of Public Security – a prime perch from which to target rivals and dodge repercussions from his own scandals – in exchange for the largely ceremonial position of president, the political reality may not be so black and white.
Former president Tran Dai Quang – Lam’s predecessor at MPS – was able to maintain substantial influence over the ministry even after his ascension to the presidency. It is not inconceivable that Lam might attempt a similar feat if he decides the position could be a useful stepping stone to becoming general secretary.
It’s unlikely, however, that Lam would be able to make a bid for the presidency unopposed. A Lam presidency would further expand the already substantial influence of former MPS officials over the highest levels of government, where they already hold the prime minister’s office and around a quarter of Politburo seats.
Truong Thi Mai would likely be a more acceptable option to many, as a career trajectory that has kept her outside the country’s powerful security and economic ministries has left her with a weaker power base than other potential contenders for general secretary.
However, her interest in the presidency will likely depend on the real reasons behind Thuong’s resignation and upbraiding by the party. If Thuong was simply another casualty of Trong’s anti-corruption campaign, a demonstration of the CPV’s commitment to root out corruption at all levels of government, then the presidency could very well appeal to Mai.
However, if she has reason to believe that there were political motives behind pushing Thuong out of office and that another more powerful figure in the party-state apparatus is angling for the position, the weak power base that might otherwise recommend her for the position could turn into a significant liability.
Thuong’s resignation is the latest event to compound substantial turmoil within Vietnam’s senior leadership. In 2023 alone, a president and two deputy prime ministers fell to corruption investigations, in addition to dozens of less senior officials.
The turmoil has left Trong – who will be 81 by the next Party Congress in 2026 and is widely expected to step down from his post – without a clear successor, raising the prospect of a disorderly and contentious transition.
As another president falls and jockeying for the position rises, intra-party rivalry could be a source of political instability and more falls from grace in the run-up to 2026.
Ian Hollinger is a freelance journalist based in Phnom Penh.