Turkey’s Kaan Next-Generation Fighter, previously known as the TF-X, has made its first flight, giving rise to geostrategic speculation the fighter jet may soon be available for export to a range of states, according to multiple news outlets.
The aircraft was airborne for 13 minutes, reached an altitude of 8,000 feet and a speed of 230 knots while flying alongside an F-16D for support, the reports said.
The TF-X cum Kaan project, launched in 2016, aims to replace Turkey’s fleet of US-made F-16s, which will be phased out starting in the 2030s. The Kaan’s design philosophy has evolved since Turkey left the US-led F-35 consortium following the country’s controversial procurement of Russia’s S-400 missile defense system in 2019.
The Kaan will be the flagship of Turkey’s military aerospace industry, with the country working on a project to produce locally manufactured jet engines and the design being considered for a sixth-generation fighter replete with artificial intelligence-powered capabilities.
Popular Mechanics notes in a March 2023 article that the Kaan is in the same league as South Korea’s indigenously made KF-21 Boramae fighter. This 4.5 generation jet falls short of being a 5th generation aircraft, although a complete stealth configuration and indigenous engines are planned for a third production batch.
Popular Mechanics mentions that the Kaan is expected to meet performance benchmarks for modern fighter jets, with a top speed between Mach 1.8 to 2.2, a service ceiling of 55,000 feet, a 700-mile range on internal fuel and supersonic capability without afterburners. However, the report assesses those capabilities are still more aspirational than assured.
The Kaan features an indigenous, bird strike-resistant canopy, single-wheel landing gears, 7050-grade aluminum nose and cockpit, titanium central fuselage and lightweight carbon composite thermoplastic coatings on the engines and surface inlets to reduce radar reflectivity.
While the Popular Mechanics report says Turkey claims up to 85% indigenous parts for the Kaan, it features imported components such as two General Electric F110-GE-129 turbofan engines and a Martin-Baker ejection seat.
Popular Mechanics says the Kaan is expected to feature an indigenous Aselsan AESA-class multimode radar that can scan and jam simultaneously, increasing resistance to jamming, and will have twice as many transmit-receive elements on the AN/APG-77 radar used on the US F-22.
It also says the Kaan has a nose-mounted forward infrared search and track (IRST) sensor, an electro-optical system with 360-degree coverage. Turkish firms have already built various laser, missile and radar warning receivers, including digital radio frequency memory (DRFM) jammers, for integration in the Kaan.
The Kaan can reportedly store four weapons in an internal weapons bay and four more in its side fuselage bays alongside an autocannon. It also has four underwing hardpoints for non-stealth options.
While the Kaan may be a sound design, Turkey’s economic woes may prevent it from getting past the prototype technology demonstrator stage or limit the actual number of production airframes.
In an article for The National Interest (TNI) this month, Stavros Atlamazoglou notes that the Kaan’s reliance on key imported parts and Turkey’s poor economic prospects may jeopardize the aircraft’s future. Atlamazoglou mentions that the weak Turkish lira could result in extreme cost overruns for advanced projects like the Kaan.
While Turkey can still spread out costs over several years of production, such attenuation may result in capabilities that are obsolete on delivery, as Turkey plans to have an operational capability by 2040 with a fleet of 300 aircraft.
Nevertheless, Turkey likely aims to pitch the Kaan on the international fighter jet market. Aside from longtime strategic partner Azerbaijan, the UAE, Indonesia and Pakistan have been cited as potential customers.
Asia Times reported in January 2022 that Russia and the UAE have entered into talks to co-produce the former’s Su-75 Checkmate fighter, following US restrictions on F-35 sales to the UAE due to its telecoms contracts with Huawei that Washington believes could compromise the F-35’s technology.
However, the Su-75’s future is uncertain. Paul Iddon mentions in a June 2023 Business Insider article that unconfirmed reports state the UAE has stopped funding for the Su-75, with the threat of secondary sanctions and import restrictions on microelectronics to Russia serving as strong disincentives for continued participation in the program.
Iddon also states the possibility that the UAE’s involvement in the Su-75 program was more bluff than intent in a negotiating tactic to pressure the US into eventually selling F-35s.
While Ashley Roque notes in a February 2023 Breaking Defense article that the US has not completely ended the possibility of F-35 sales to the UAE, the latter’s close relations with China is still a sticking point. Should the US refuse to sell F-35s to the UAE and the Su-75 fails to materialize, Turkey’s Kaan fighter could be a viable alternative candidate.
While Indonesia participates in South Korea’s KF-21 Boramae project, Asia Times reported in July 2023 that Jakarta is struggling to pay its share of the venture, which is reported at 20% of the total cost. Those late payments could force South Korea to look for new partners for its KF-21, such as the UAE, Malaysia and Poland.
Indonesia has been struggling to modernize its air force, with cost constraints and strategic concerns driving a multi-pronged acquisition approach that includes acquiring 24 US-made F-15EX jets, 42 French-made Rafales, sourcing used F-15 engines from Japan for its F-16 fleet, and buying used ex-Qatari Mirage 2000-5 jets.
Turkey’s Kaan could be a viable replacement for the KF-21, offering some of the capabilities of Western 5th-generation fighters at a fraction of the cost while keeping in line with Indonesia’s strategy of diversifying its military equipment suppliers to maintain strategic autonomy.
While Pakistan is building up its air force with Chinese fighters, those jets may not perform as expected in a high-intensity conflict. Asia Times noted in January 2024 that while Pakistan is a repeat customer for China’s fighter jets, the JF-17, which makes up the backbone of Pakistan’s fighter fleet (alongside US-made F-16s), is not designed to compete with 5th-generation fighters and is better equipped for low-intensity conflicts such as insurgencies or basic air defense.
Significantly, the TF-X project, which led to the Kaan, is a joint Turkish-Pakistani project. The Kaan may allow Pakistan to alleviate concerns that its dependence on China for sophisticated weapons could lead to the subjugation of its foreign and defense policies to China’s interests. However, the troubled Turkish and Pakistani economies call into question the viability of such cooperation.