Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy, will go to the polls next month. The country’s 200 million voters, and 1.75 million members of the Indonesian diaspora, will vote to elect a new president and vice-president.
The stakes are high. President Joko Widodo will leave office with a flawed but positive legacy on human rights, including an attempt to right the wrongs of Indonesia’s dark past. But this year’s election threatens a return of that past, with Indonesia’s old guard looking to return to power. If they are successful, Widodo’s legacy will be threatened.
Widodo was elected promising to deal with Indonesia’s poor human-rights record and atone for its history of atrocities. This includes the killing of about 500,000 people during anti-communist purges under president Sukarno in the 1960s and the Wamena Incident, where the Indonesian military killed or forcibly displaced civilians in Papua.
While Widodo has been criticized for slow progress on human rights, last year saw significant moves to address Indonesia’s dark history. A speech last January saw Widodo express regret for past atrocities, and this was followed by the announcement of a reparations program for its victims.
Both are seen as landmark moments for human rights in Indonesia because of a reluctance by previous governments to address the issue. According to Widodo, the moves were not only an atonement of the past, but also signaled “the government’s commitment to prevent similar abuses in the future.”
Top candidates
There are two realistic contenders to succeed Widodo. One represents a continuation of the president’s legacy, while the other may signal a return to strongman politics and the involvement of the military in Indonesian political life.
Ganjar Pranowo, governor of Central Java province, is the candidate for Widodo’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and shares many similarities with the current president.
Like Widodo, Ganjar is not part of the traditional political establishment – or old guard – made up of military figures and prominent wealthy families. Instead, he cut his teeth in local politics in Central Java before serving two terms as governor. Ganjar is arguably the best candidate to continue Widodo’s human-rights legacy given his background and similar ideological leanings.
The second candidate is Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, the antithesis to Widodo. He is firmly part of Indonesia’s political elite, once married to Suharto’s daughter, and a former member of the Indonesian military, serving as a special-forces commander. Subianto has used his military background to create a strongman image, modeling himself on his former patron Suharto.
But Subianto’s controversial military career continues to haunt his political aspirations, losing elections to Widodo in 2014 and 2019. He has been accused of serious human-rights violations, including atrocities in East Timor and Papua and the abduction and torture of pro-democracy activists in 1997.
He was also dismissed from the military in 1998, allegedly because of these atrocities and after storming the presidential palace to threaten his ally Suharto’s successor as president, B J Habibie. Subianto has rejected the allegations against him, claiming in a televised debate last month that “I think I’m a staunch defender of human rights.”
This has seen Subianto attempt to soften his image in the eyes of voters, and he has even chosen Widodo’s son, Gibran Rakabuming, as his running mate to attract support from young Indonesians. These moves saw Subianto surge ahead in the polls, with Kompas showing Subianto and Gibran garnering 39.3% of the vote as of December.
Ironically, Widodo has played a role in Subianto’s chance at the presidency. He controversially appointed Subianto as defense minister in 2019, providing him with legitimacy and visibility. The choice of his son as vice-presidential candidate is also seen as an attempt to gain influence over Subianto if he is successful in February’s election.
But Subianto is a threat to Widodo’s legacy. He represents the old guard and a return to strongman politics. Victory for Subianto would also see a return to military dominance in Indonesian politics, something Indonesians voted against when they elected outsider Widodo in 2014 and 2019.
This would be a dangerous step back for human rights in Indonesia. Subianto’s dark history suggests he is unlikely to follow through with Widodo’s reparation scheme for families of the victims of atrocities and will not respect human rights in the present. This would be especially dangerous in Indonesia’s flashpoints, such as the ongoing human-rights concerns in Papua.
Widodo may think he can retain influence over Subianto, but this appears naive. While Widodo remains popular with Indonesians, he will always be an outsider in an Indonesia dominated by the military establishment. Once he relinquishes power, Widodo may quickly see himself on the periphery and Subianto in charge.
All Indonesian elections are important, but February’s poll is a watershed moment that may determine the country’s future. Widodo has attempted to deal with Indonesia’s bloody history and has made substantial progress, but Subianto threatens a return to this dark past.
And that is in nobody’s interest.