A US Army study has recommended phasing out the M1 Abrams tank for lighter, smaller, unmanned vehicles, citing survivability concerns in future battlefields that have been made apparent in the Ukraine war.
This month, The Warzone reported that the US Army Science Board study has recommended moving beyond the M1 Abrams tank to new, smaller tanks and uncrewed vehicles to dominate the anticipated battlefields of the 2040s. The study reportedly outlines the need for a next-generation M1 derivative equipped with larger caliber guns as well as hypersonic anti-tank missiles.
The Warzone report mentions that the US Army Science Board predicts that future tanks and armored vehicles will face new threats from advanced anti-tank weapons, drones and AI-aided capabilities. It predicts that the battlefields of the 2040s will see increased use of robotics, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) logistics functions and cyber-attacks on command-and-control facilities.
The study says that the M1 Abrams will be less dominant on future battlefields and that the US military is concerned about supporting forces in a future high-end fight against China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which is expected to contest friendly supply chains.
The M1 Abrams requires an extensive logistics train, requiring vast supplies of JP-8 jet fuel and a steady supply of spare parts. While the US can directly supply its tank forces via sealift or airlift, or pre-position fuel and spares in countries such as Japan, the Philippines and Australia, the PLA can use its extensive anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities to prevent US resupply operations or a combination of economic and political pressure to deny the US access to bases and logistics facilities.
The Warzone says the US Army Science Board recommends exploring a lighter M1-derived tank with advanced 130mm main guns, reduced crew, a hybrid-electric propulsion system and a focus on active protection systems (APS). The report says the US Army is considering a new crewed 35-to-40-ton light tank with similar features and a 20-to-30-ton “robotic wingman.”
It also mentions that the board has proposed a Remote Combat Vehicle-Heavy (RCV-H) as a potential solution and recommended testing drone vehicles through coordination with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and engagement with France and Germany on advanced tank projects.
The Warzone says that the study criticizes the lack of tank-related research in the US compared to efforts in Russia and China while acknowledging that armor will remain crucial for future US military operations. The study may have informed the recent US decision to end M1 upgrade projects and change its perspective on the long-serving M1 Abrams, which first entered service in 1980.
This month, Defense News reported that the US Army will replace the M1A2 System Enhancement Package Version 4 (SEPv4 program) with the M1E3 Abrams, noting that the M1 can no longer be upgraded without adding weight and the need to reduce the tank’s logistical footprint.
Defense News notes the new M1E3 Abrams will include the best features of the M1A2 SEPv4 and comply with open-systems architecture standards, allowing for faster technology upgrades. The report also says the project aims to design a more survivable, lighter tank that will reputedly be more effective on the battlefield and easier to upgrade.
Defense News also reports that the US Army plans to produce the M1A2 SEPv3 at a reduced rate until it can transition the M1E3 into full-scale production. It says that the M1E3 is expected to reach initial operational capability in the early 2030s and predicts that it will be able to defeat longer-range threats in both lethality and survivability.
The US Marine Corps (USMC) has taken a similar decision in eliminating M1 tanks from its inventories in what is being billed as a significant overhaul of its organizational structure.
In March 2020, the Marine Corps Times reported that the USMC is divesting M1 tanks and equipment that will struggle to survive in combat with adversaries like China. The Marine Corps Times mentions that units that shoot first have a decisive advantage on the battlefield and that precision strikes and drone threats have made tanks and armored vehicles vulnerable. It has said more mobile units are needed to survive precision fire, attrite adversary forces, create dilemmas for the enemy and consume adversary ISR resources.
These developments, however, may present significant challenges for US allies like Ukraine and Taiwan, both of which are slated to receive M1 tanks.
In January, US President Joe Biden announced the delivery of 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, enough to equip an armored battalion. Biden said that Ukraine needs the tanks to counter Russia’s evolving tactics and strategy on the battlefield, improve its ability to maneuver in open terrain and field an enduring capability to deter and defend against Russian aggression.
David Axe, in a March 2023 Forbes article, mentions that ex-USMC M1A1 tanks with Far Target Locators (FTL) will likely be sent to Ukraine. The writer says that the FTL calculates the GPS coordinates of a target up to 8,000 meters away, with the crew able to relay these coordinates to an artillery battery for fire missions.
However, he notes that the early FTLs on the USMC M1A1s were plagued with low precision, providing tank crews with accurate target locations with a 35-meter Circular Error Probability (CEP) up to 8,000 meters while the US military’s latest FTL is now two or three times more precise.
Lara Seligman and other writers note in a January 2023 Politico article that the 31 M1A1 headed tanks for Ukraine won’t have the depleted uranium (DU) armor that protects the M1 tanks in US service, with export models stripped of that classified armor. That armor allows US M1s to resist the depleted-uranium, armor-piercing sabot tank rounds fielded by China and Russia.
Seligman and other writers also note questionable US M1 manufacturing capacity, as the tanks are built in just one factory in Lima, Ohio. The facility has reportedly struggled to fulfill orders from Poland and Taiwan, and has a limited production capacity of 100 tanks a year versus 250 for Russia.
Moreover, Olivia Yanchik points out in a September 2023 Atlantic Council article that one battalion of M1 tanks is unlikely to make a considerable battlefield impact in Ukraine and that it is unclear how they will be used. However, Yanchik says poor strategy should not obscure the need for tanks to cut through fortifications or hold territory when combined with sound strategy and air defense assets.
While a Taiwan conflict is envisioned as an air-sea battle, heavy M1 tanks may still have critical roles in repelling a potential Chinese amphibious assault. In a June 2023 study for the Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP), Mandip Singh notes that Taiwan has 1,200 tanks, far exceeding the PLA’s sealift capability to land less than half that many in a single strait crossing.
But Axe points out in a November 2021 Forbes article that, due to Chinese pressure on foreign suppliers, Taiwan has struggled to acquire new tanks, forcing it to refurbish its vintage US M48s and M60s.
He says that while Taiwan has recently purchased 108 M1A2 tanks from the US, the PLA could attempt to destroy Taiwan’s tank fleet before the first wave of an amphibious landing craft comes ashore, as the PLA has thousands of missiles pointed on the self-governing island.
However, Axe mentions that Taiwan is highly aware of the threat, has identified thousands of hiding areas for armored vehicles and has allocated US$3 million to build bunkers for its new M1 tanks.