SINGAPORE – Tharman Shanmugaratnam, a former deputy prime minister seen as close to Singapore’s political establishment, clinched a landslide victory in the city-state’s first contested presidential election in more than a decade on Friday, comfortably beating two other candidates with a record 70.4% of the vote.
Though Singapore’s presidency is a largely ceremonial role as the non-partisan head of state, analysts widely viewed the contest as a barometer of support for the long-ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), to which Tharman, 66, had belonged for more than two decades before resigning from all party positions and posts in June to be eligible to contest the presidency.
Amid cost-of-living challenges and a slew of recent high-profile scandals implicating PAP leaders, the wide margin of victory for Tharman caught some analysts by surprise. The results have sparked debate as to whether they truly reflect unvarnished public support for the PAP, or are instead a reflection of Tharman’s formidable personal popularity.
“This election is at least in part a referendum on the PAP. Of course, the caveat is that Tharman is more popular than his former party. I think that is undeniable,” said Walid Jumblatt Abdullah, an assistant professor in social sciences at Nanyang Technological University, in reference to Tharman’s past track record of delivering general-election landslides for the PAP in his Jurong constituency.
Walid noted that Tharman’s resounding win, despite his two opponents emphasizing their “independence” from the ruling party as a central theme on the hustings, “shows that the PAP brand is not as damaged as a lot of people like to say or think. Not only that, but I would also say it is still the most trusted brand in many ways. For sure, it is a good result for the PAP.”
Safeguard role
The presidency is regarded as the nation’s highest office, though the incumbent must act on the cabinet’s advice except in specific areas where they have discretional powers, particularly in serving as the gatekeeper of Singapore’s vast financial reserves, the total amount of which remains a state secret, with veto powers over the government’s ability to spend past savings.
The position is intended to serve as a safeguard, allowing the president to veto appointments to key public offices and authorize anti-corruption officials to undertake investigations if the prime minister refuses to do so. Other duties include meeting with foreign dignitaries and observing occasions of national significance, such as annual independence celebrations.
Tharman faced two relatively weak opponents: Ng Kok Song, 75, a relatively unknown former chief investment officer at sovereign wealth fund GIC, and Tan Kin Lian, 75, a former chief executive of insurer NTUC Income whose campaign was dogged by controversy over past social-media posts that were flagged as misogynist and nativist. Ng won 15.7% of the vote, while Tan received 13.9%.
The election was only Singapore’s third for the presidency since 1991, owed in part to strict criteria for candidate eligibility that had previously resulted in walkover outcomes for PAP-affiliated contenders. Tharman, who will be the country’s ninth president overall, ran on a campaign promising “respect for all,” including those with “different views and political leanings.”
Clear favorite
Felix Tan, a political analyst at Nanyang Technological University (NTU), told Asia Times that he sees Tharman’s victory as “not necessarily reflective of a resurgent public support for the PAP,” adding that “Singaporeans have often said they would want Tharman to be Singapore’s next prime minister. As such, Tharman can stand on his own two feet quite comfortably.”
Past opinion polls had consistently shown Tharman, a trained economist who had previously held education and finance ministerial portfolios and prominent posts at international organizations including the International Monetary Fund, World Economic Forum and the United Nations, as the clear favorite to succeed Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, in office since 2004.
Statesmanlike and known for his calm, avuncular way of speaking, Tharman is generally viewed by opposition-leaning voters as the PAP’s most palatable leader, seen as being relatively more progressive and left-leaning. He is credited with introducing modest welfare policies for the poor and elderly after electoral setbacks for the PAP at the 2011 general election.
The thumping win for Tharman, an ethnic Indian and the only minority in the contest, is also significant because it was delivered by a Chinese-majority electorate. While Singapore has had non-Chinese presidents in the past, Tharman is the first minority to be elected to the role by the public, and resoundingly so. That fact raises inconvenient questions for the PAP.
Lee and other ruling-party leaders had previously suggested that Singaporeans, particularly the elderly, were not yet ready to accept a non-Chinese prime minister. On the campaign trail, Tharman broke from that narrative, saying publicly that he felt Singapore was ready for an ethnic-minority leader, though he had previously ruled himself out as a contender for the premiership.
While many in Singapore may feel disappointed that a reform-minded leader with clear technocratic talents ended up in the role of an apolitical custodian, some may take comfort in the fact that Tharman’s six-year tenure as president will overlap with a generational leadership succession that has been dogged by setbacks and a continued lack of clarity around its precise timeline.
Leadership succession
Incumbent Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, 50, is expected to take the reins as Singapore’s next leader, though Lee, 71, who has stayed on as PM despite indicating his desire to retire, has said the succession will coincide with the next general election, which must be held by November 2025. It is unclear whether Lee intends to step down prior to national polls.
During his National Day speech last month, Lee reiterated that leadership transition plans are “back on track,” affirming that recent political scandals would not delay the “timeline for renewal.” Those incidents include a rare graft investigation involving a cabinet minister, the resignations of two ruling-party lawmakers for marital infidelity, and a probe into ministers renting state-owned properties.
Though the president’s duties have no bearing over the leadership handover, some believe having Tharman in the role as a safe pair of hands will create a more conducive environment for the eventual succession.
“Having Tharman as president during the prime-ministerial succession will likely result in a smoother transition,” Tan of NTU told Asia Times.
“We need to understand that leadership handover is already a given and that it will likely take place at a time when the dust of the recent scandals have been addressed and resolved. This overwhelming win for Tharman would also likely mean that any prime-ministerial handover might happen sooner than expected,” the political analyst added.
Garry Rodan, an honorary professor at the University of Queensland’s School of Political Science and International Studies, agreed that the degree of popular support won by Tharman could imbue Lee with confidence to hand his job to heir apparent Wong sooner rather than later, but noted that “Tharman’s resounding election victory is a double-edged sword for the PAP leadership succession issue.”
“Tharman’s level of support contradicts a belief expressed in the past by some PAP leaders that Singapore’s older conservative voters are not ready for a non-ethnic-Chinese prime minister. The conspicuous presence of Tharman as president invites an important question: If merit and popularity matter in selecting a prime minister, why did Tharman not become one?”