China has unveiled its version of Iran’s Shahed suicide drone, known as the Sunflower-200, raising speculation that Beijing may soon offer the weapon to nations critical to its geostrategic interests and ambitions.
Whether China would sell the Sunflower-200 to Russia and risk possible Western sanctions, however, is an open but important question as the conflict in Ukraine is increasingly characterized by drone warfare.
This month, Forbes reported on a new video revealing the Chinese-made kamikaze drone’s test launch. The drone is believed to be a copy of the Iranian Shahed-136 and was seen in pictures from Russia’s ARMY-2023 defense exhibition in Moscow in August.
The Forbes report says the Sunflower-200 is in an advanced stage of development and may be just months away from full-scale production.
China Defense, a website providing commercial information on China’s weapons systems for international clients, touts the Sunflower-200 as a low-cost weapon designed to engage long-range stationary targets.
The website says the drone has a 3.2-meter length, 2.5-meter wingspan and a flight speed of 160-220 kilometers per hour. The Sunflower-200 has a maximum take-off weight of 175 kilograms, a combat payload of 40 kilograms and can fly up to 2000 kilometers to engage targets, according to China Defense.
According to Forbes, 2,000 Shahed drones have been deployed in Russia, with the originals imported from Iran and more recent reports suggesting Russia is now producing them domestically under license.
In June 2023, Asia Times reported on Russia and Iran’s plans to build a Shahed-136 factory in the Yelabuga region east of Moscow, with production scheduled to start in 2024 and a projected output of 6,000 drones over the next few years to support Russia’s Ukraine war effort. Iranian defense companies are also known to have supplied components to Russian factories for drone-building.
Russia has reportedly upgraded the Shahed-136, improving its warhead and adding GLONASS satellite guidance units to its original inertial guidance system to increase the drone’s lethality, accuracy and range.
However, the GLONASS upgrade does not allow for real-time control and the heavier guidance system requires a lighter warhead.
Russia has planned several other upgrades to the original Shahed design, such as swapping out its noisy gasoline engine with a silent electric motor and installing components better suited for freezing weather on the Ukrainian battlefields.
However, Forbes notes there are doubts about the seriousness of these upgrade projects, with a Shahed-136 crash in Romania indicating quality control issues with the Russian-made, Iran-designed drones.
Forbes says the Sunflower-200 is not a direct copy of the Shahed but rather an upgrade with similar performance, range and capabilities.
It notes that the drone can launched with a rocket unit or catapult and includes a smart guidance unit similar to the Digital Scene Matching Area Correlator (DSMAC) developed for the Tomahawk cruise missile.
The Ukraine war has revealed many vulnerabilities in Russia’s military drone sector. As reported by Asia Times in July 2022, these include restricted access to advanced technologies due to Western sanctions, a need for high-end systems authorized for operational use and a general underdevelopment of drone-making capacity.
Russia’s drone program is also hindered by limitations in short-range tactical drones and a lag in critical drone technologies and materials. Conflicting requirements from different branches of the military are reportedly obstructing progress.
In contrast to Russia, Asia Times reported in August 2022 that China is now the leading global exporter of combat drones. China has carved out that market position through lenient export policies, flexible payment options, strong Chinese Communist Party backing and years of reverse engineering of foreign technology.
Citing data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Reuters reported last month that China shipped at least 282 sizeable armed combat drones to 17 countries over the past decade, while the US exported just 12 over the same period to France and Britain.
China has taken a cautious approach towards the Ukraine war, balancing and calibrating its support to Russia to avoid Western sanctions. As such, it is unlikely that the Sunflower-200 will soon end up in Russia’s arsenal, although China is known to have sent dual-use drones to Russia for military purposes.
For example, Asia Times reported in May 2022 that Chinese drone maker DJI had suspended its operations in Russia and Ukraine, making it the first major Chinese company to stop business in both countries amid a conflict that the West has harshly condemned and severely sanctioned its enablers.
DJI has denied selling products for military use, but both Russia and Ukraine widely use its drones for reconnaissance, artillery spotting, sniping and ambushes.
Asia Times reported in July 2023 that Russian companies imported at least 37 Chinese drones worth US$103,000 between December 2022 and April 2023 which were designated in customs clearance papers for Russia’s “special military operation.”
Russian firms also paid Chinese companies $1.2 million for devices that detect and jam drones and $36,077 for ten rugged personal computers with paperwork designating all of the items for use in the “special military operation.”
The sales underscore China’s complicated position on the Ukraine war, where its interests are served neither by a thumping Russian win nor a resounding Russian defeat.
A Russian victory wherein Western support for Ukraine breaks, resulting in an agreement that eventually sees the resumption of Russian energy exports to Europe and a lifting of Western sanctions, would break Russia’s current dependence on China as an economic and diplomatic lifeline.
However, a Russian defeat wherein Ukraine manages to recapture much of its occupied territories and inflict heavy casualties on the Russian military would demonstrate the effectiveness of Western aid and sanctions, setting an undesirable precedent for China on Taiwan.
A Korean War-style armistice wherein the conflict is indefinitely frozen is likely the outcome that would best suit China’s interests by ensuring Moscow’s continued dependence on Beijing. That would give China continued leverage over Russia regarding energy exports, disputed borders and arms sales, including potential killer drone transfers.