JAKARTA – Ruling Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI-P) leader Megawati Sukarnoputri’s failure to read her country’s love for football appears to have turned the 2024 presidential race on its head with Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto now taking over as the front-runner in the latest electability poll.
A fortnight after Megawati’s opposition to Israel’s participation sabotaged Indonesia’s hosting of the FIFA Under-20 World Cup, pollster Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) has given Prabowo, 71, a four-point lead over Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, the prospective PDI-P candidate.
While the extraordinary turn-around will have to be confirmed in subsequent polls, the concurrent Great Indonesian Movement (Gerindra) leader appears to have President Joko Widodo’s full backing in pressing ahead with a five-party, pro-government alliance that excludes PDI-P.
National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman and Trade Minister Zulkifli Hasan was quoted as saying the new alliance was “controlled by Jokowi (Widodo)” and that “everything is under Jokowi’s orchestra,” an indication of the intrigue behind the scenes as the political situation enters unknown territory.
Then a high-flying general, Prabowo was drummed out of the army in 1998 following the downfall of his former father-in-law, President Suharto. He has since reinvented himself as a hard-charging politician, twice losing presidential races to Widodo in 2014 and 2019.
He has managed to control his once-notorious temper and appeared to be as shocked as anyone when Widodo appointed his rival to the defense portfolio in his 2019 Cabinet – a move that has kept him at the forefront of political life.
Partly because of Prabowo’s own high profile, Gerindra has continued to prosper as a grassroots party and is now ranked second behind PDI-P and ahead of Golkar, Suharto’s old political machine that has failed to arrest a slide in its popularity.
If the self-absorbed Megawati feels the heat, she isn’t showing it. “Politics is always dynamic, so we must always anticipate,” the matriarch told party cadre, describing PDI-P as a pioneer and a pillar of the state. “We must not sit quietly. We must keep moving.”
Analysts believe the new coalition is now likely to wait for her to make the next move, but with Pranowo and PDI-P both faltering in popularity she will not have the cards she once had to make demands inside the so-called “big tent”, which includes Gerindra, Golkar, PAN and the National Awakening (PKB) and United Development (PPP) parties.
In the meantime, the partners appear to have provisionally agreed on Prabowo as their presidential candidate with a non-party nominee as his running mate to ensure it does not become an acrimonious issue.
A previous poll conducted in March by the Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) had the 54-year-old Pranowo in the lead with 35.5% support, followed by Prabowo (27.2%) and aspiring opposition candidate Anies Baswedan (24.8%) trailing in third place.
The new LSI survey, taken between March 31 and April 4, the day immediately following FIFA’s decision to remove Indonesia as host of the U-20 World Cup, has Prabowo polling at 30.3%, well clear of Pranowo on 26.9% and Baswedan on 25.3%.
Only last January, LSI had Pranowo leading with 36.3%, followed by Baswedan (24.2%) and Prabowo (23.2%). The pollster said then that Pranowo’s strong showing was due to the soaring popularity of Widodo, who until the FIFA blow-up was widely believed to be backing the governor for the presidency.
The latest poll gave Widodo a 76.8% approval rating, his highest since coming to power in 2014 and another reminder that his endorsement will count in next year’s election. The last survey in January saw his performance rating rise from 62.6% to 76.2%.
Political sources had earlier claimed Pranowo lost 7% of his popularity – especially among younger voters – because of his decision to support the ban on Israel playing in Solo, Central Java, Widodo’s hometown and one of six venues chosen for the football tournament.
PDI-P’s electability has also slumped from 22% to 17.7% in the past three months. Gerindra’s support rose from 10.9% to 12.8% in the same time frame, although with Prabowo staying out of the World Cup controversy its small gain clearly has little to do with that.
LSI executive director Djayadi Hanan noted that the majority of Widodo’s voting base – or 39.3% – still chose Pranowo as their preferred candidate when the country holds simultaneous legislative and presidential elections on February 14 next year.
But he also said there were signs that some of Pranowo’s own loyalists were moving into the Prabowo camp, particularly in East Java – the country’s second biggest province – which has previously been seen as a Pranowo stronghold.
During five days in Central Java in early April visiting his grandchildren, the president met with Pranowo on numerous separate occasions, apparently to show there are no hard feelings between the pair, who both come from similar modest backgrounds.
Joking and smiling, they shared several presidential limousine rides to rural markets and prayed together at Solo’s Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque. It is not known what was said, but it may become clearer as actions speak louder than words in coming days.
Observers have noted the vulnerable position Pranowo finds himself in with Megawati holding off on who she will anoint as the party’s candidate, even if he does appear to be an obvious choice – as a poll-topping Widodo was nine years ago.
Reticent to speak out on any issue lest it is perceived to be presumptuous or likely to offend Megawati, Pranowo remains an unknown quantity, with his attractive social media image often masking questions about his performance as governor.
His intervention in the World Cup controversy was out of character, but he may have calculated it would allow PDI-P to score points with conservative Muslim voters, who have been the most vocal champions of Palestinian independence.
But they are also soccer fans and, in general, Islamic leaders have kept silent about Israel’s participation, which only became clear late last year when FIFA announced the 24 qualifying teams.
PDI-P is the only party with sufficient votes from the previous 2019 elections to clear the nomination threshold for a presidential candidate without any outside help. But it would be a tough slog without Widodo’s backing and a powerful rival to contest against.
Going it alone could conceivably consign it to the political opposition for the first time since the 2004-2014 presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono whose Democrat Party is currently part of Baswedan’s opposition coalition.
Some significant segments of the media have been reluctant to speculate on what has become an open split between Widodo and Megawati, while others have made clear their preferences in 2024 by playing with the numbers in the latest poll.
Several publications misleadingly featured part of the survey where the three front-runners were joined by 16 other supposed candidates, none of whom have any realistic chance of running in 2024. In that, Pranowo led with 19.8%, ahead of Prabowo (19.3%) and Baswedan (18.4%).