The future development of quantum computing may result in a “quantum arms race” if the United States and China continue to impose rules in the game-changing realm merely to suit their own national needs.
In a “Quantum Summer” scenario, governments and companies will join hands to develop the technology for commercial use, according to a report published by Blue Shift at Arthur D Little, a Brussels-based management consulting firm.
But in a “Quantum Winter” scenario, both international collaboration and investment in the sector will decline, the same report says.
“Globally, a lot of companies and organizations are now having very intense research in quantum computing,” Albert Meige, director of Blue Shift at Arthur D Little, said in an interview. “However, if the gap between the roadmaps given by vendors and what has been achieved increases, the investments will slow down, resulting in a Quantum Winter.”
“At the moment, both the US and China are investing massively in the sector but international collaborations will decrease if the world’s geopolitics become unstable,” Meige told Asia Times.
In the extreme case of a “Quantum Arms Race,” nationalist governments would take an increasingly interventionist line on quantum computing development, taking direct control over leading players in their countries and regions, he said.
In this case, large countries would invest in quantum computing under a heavy veil of secrecy, leading to a metaphorical and actual “arms race,” he said. Companies would then be ordered to align with national priorities and focus more on applications for defense, security and aerospace use, he added.
Quantum China
Over the past many years, China has been pouring money into the quantum computing sector.
In 2015, Alibaba and the Hefei-based University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) co-founded the Alibaba Quantum Computing Laboratory in Shanghai, focusing on quantum cryptography. Alibaba also started collaborations with QuantumCTek, a quantum product and service provider.
In 2018, Tencent launched a quantum lab in Shenzhen, offering resources in the cloud as well as work in quantum simulation and machine-learning algorithms. In the same year, the Chinese government started building the National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences (NLQIS) in the USTC. The facility was opened in 2020.
But in November 2021, the End User Review Committee (ERC), led by the US Department of Commerce, said it decided to add Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences (HFNL) at the Microscale, QuantumCTek and Shanghai QuantumCTek to its “Entity List” for acquiring and attempting to acquire US-origin items in alleged support of military applications. HFNL is also located on the USTC’s campus.
Meige said as the technology starts to mature, the current open exchange of intelligence and data across the global quantum computing ecosystem might soon stop, driven by both commercial and geopolitical pressures.
He said the US has so far remained the leader in quantum development, thanks to its combination of high public investment in basic research, global tech giants and a well-funded startup ecosystem.
“China is aiming to leap-frog America and has claimed it will invest US$10 billion in the period up to 2030, but this is open to question,” he said. “China is suffering from a current lack of basic research strengths.”
Quantum advantage
In 2021, over 50 venture capital deals were announced with a combined investment of more than $25 billion. More than 20 new prototype devices will reportedly be launched by 2030.
Last November, IBM released Osprey, a 433-qubit superconducting quantum computer with triple the number of qubits of its Eagle device released in late 2021. The company plans to release its 1,121-qubit Condor later this year and its 1,386-qubit Flamingo in 2024.
Google plans to launch a superconducting error-corrected quantum computer with 1 million qubits by 2029.
According to a recent Blue Shift survey, 80% of 59 industry experts expected quantum advantage over conventional computing to be achieved within the coming decade. The remaining 20% disagreed based on the argument that even a machine with one million physical qubits would yield only 300 to 400 logical qubits, which is not enough to calculate most serious algorithms.
“We can boost the number of physical qubits but they are very unstable,” Meige said. “Logical qubits are what we can actually use.”
Meige said some companies were measuring their machines in physical qubits while others were in logical qubits. For example, an IBM machine with 1,000 physical qubits could have the same quality as the IonQ’s trapped-ytterbium ion quantum computer with 32 logical qubits.
He also said it was difficult to confirm the speed of China’s quantum computers as detailed specifications were unavailable.
Earlier this month, Origin Quantum Computing Technology Co, based in Hefei, said it delivered a 24-qubit quantum computer – known as Benyuan Wuyuan – that reportedly uses self-developed superconducting chip technology. The company did not disclose more details to substantiate the claim, however.
Currently, there are three main types of quantum computers that are either electron-based (superconducting), atom-based (cold atom or trapped ion) or photon-based. Each has its pros and cons in terms of operating temperature, stability and error rate.
According to the survey, 40% of the experts believed that electron-based quantum computers will be the most likely to succeed in the next decade while 35% chose atom-based and 26% photon-based.
Meige said the bets are still open about which qubit technology will succeed.
Read: China speeding along in quantum computing race
Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3