From a 2018 low point, of just over $100 billion total market capitalization over the weekend, cryptocurrencies have rebounded nearly 14% to Tuesday's highs. Image: iStock
Image: iStock

Crypto history is repeating itself, a top analyst believes.

Bitcoin (BTC) is following the same pattern it did a year before it soared to its gobsmacking all-time high of $20,000, and the bull market has been here for over a year already, according to Willy Woo.

In a series of tweets on August 10, Woo continued a debate begun by bitcoin developer Jimmy Song, who himself debated the topic in the latest issue of his Tech Talk blog post series, Cointelegraph reported.

“Yes. The bull market really started April 2019,” Woo responded, continuing: “What’s started recently is the early main bull phase, it’s Q4 2016 all over again, but different dynamics and themes at play.”

BTC/USD hit $12,000 twice in recent days, managing to hold support at $11,500 in a long-awaited show of strength that has given many analysts cause for long-term optimism. 

Despite failing to flip $12,000 to support, Bitcoin remains firmly bullish, both sentiment and technical fundamentals-based evidence suggests.

For Woo, the composition of the market formed a major difference in maturity between this year and 2016 – maturity which has historically dictated both price trajectory and volatility.

“One of the themes is the legitimization of BTC for large institutional funds, and also the easy accessibility to buy crypto for the masses with the likes of square cash, paypal, and not to mention the one I’m working on LVL which is real regulated banking integrated with crypto,” he continued.

Woo said that he expected sovereign wealth funds to adopt bitcoin during the current bull cycle, and continue during the next.

He concluded: “I think this cycle BTC gets to prove itself as a legit macro asset bucket for traditional investors, while the cycle after this it overtakes gold to be the significant digital SoV for a digital age.”

Bitcoin logarithmic growth curves chart
Bitcoin logarithmic growth curves chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

’10x returns’

The prognosis chimes with conclusions made by macro investor Dan Tapeiro, who predicted that bitcoin would seal dramatic gains of five to 10 times its current value during this bull cycle.

“Tremendous long term Log Chart of #Bitcoin projects up 5–10x on this run,” he tweeted, uploading a five-year price performance and adding: “Just breaking up NOW. Should last a few years as 2.5yr consolidation is fantastic base for catapult up. Break of old highs will have explosive follow through. Time to sit and be patient.”

In May, fellow analyst Positive Crypto argued that bitcoin had in fact been in an “accumulation” phase for almost 900 days – and that the consolidation would soon be broken, which subsequently happened weeks later.

Meanwhile, a survey by quant analyst PlanB revealed increasing bullish sentiment among investors, with over 50% believing that BTC/USD would trade above $100,000 by December 2021.

Bitcoin’s price action was “perfectly on track” vis-a-vis his stock-to-flow model, he added previously.