이날 뉴욕증권거래소에서 다우지수는 결국 전일비 122.42포인트(0.47%) 오른 26,201.04에 거래를 마쳤다. S&P00은 23.02포인트(0.80%) 오른 2,910.63에, 기술주 중심의 나스닥은 87.02포인트(1.12%) 오른 7,872.26에 각각 장을 닫았다.
미국 공급관리협회(ISM)가 발표한 9월 서비스업 구매관리자지수(PMI)는 52.6으로 전문가 예상치 55.3에 크게 못 미쳤다. 지수가 50을 넘으면서 확장세를 이어갔지만, 지난달 56.4에 비해 하락했다. 앞서 제조업 경기 위축과 고용시장 둔화가 확인된 탓에 서비스업 부진도 가시화하자 시장은 불안한 모습을 보였다. 이처럼 지수가 부진하게 나온 직후 다우지수는 급락했지만, 투자자들이 지수 부진으로 연방준비제도가 기준금리를 인하할 것으로 기대 쪽으로 기울면서 지수는 결국 상승 마감했다.
미국 경제는 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령이 줄곧 말한 것처럼 ‘역사상 가장 위대한 경제’ 상태에 있는 것처럼 보이지 않는다. 트럼프 정부가 경기침체에 빠지기 전에 중국과의 무역전쟁에서 물러날 수 있을지가 중요하다.
하반기 미국의 자본투자와 제조업 모두 위축됐다. 하지만 3분기 소비지출은 미국 경제가 2% 성장할 수 있게 도와주고 있다. ISM 조사에 따르면 취업자 수도 거의 늘고 있지 않고, 소비자들은 쓰기보다는 저축하고 있다. 소비자 대상 조사 결과는 현재 상황보다 미래 상황에 대한 기대감이 축소된 것으로 보인다.
미국은 수조 달러의 예산적자 속에서 팽창적인 통화정책을 쓰고 있다. 재정과 통화부양책은 소비지출 성장을 뒷받침했다. 미국 대기업들이 저금리로 돈을 빌리고, 낸 이익을 주식 바이백과 배당금 형태로 주주들에 되돌려주면서 증시는 상승했다. 그런데 이것을 경제가 탄한한 상황이라고 보고 힘들다. 트럼프 대통령의 경제보좌관들은 대통령에게 미국 경제가 그동안 설탕을 먹으면 일시적으로 쓴맛은 느끼지 못하고 흥분하는 것 같은 상태인 이른바 ‘슈거하이(sugar high)’ 상태에 있었던 것이므로 급격한 하강에 취약할 수 있다는 설명을 해줬어야 한다.
미시간 대학의 소비심리 조사 결과는 소비자들 사이에서 불확실성이 퍼져있음을 보여준다. 만일 ISM 보고서처럼 서비스업 부문이 급격히 둔화된다면 미국 소비자들은 씀씀이를 줄이고, 미국 경제 성장은 둔화될 것이다.
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