중국의 5월 수출이 증가세를 보였으나, 미중 무역전쟁에 따른 수출 부진우려를 불식시키기에는 역부족이었다.
중국의 5월 수출은 예상을 깨고 전년동월대비 1.1% 증가한 2138억 달러를 기록, 한 달 만에 증가세로 돌아섰다. 하지만 수입은 전년동월대비 8.5% 감소한 1722억달러를 기록, 2016년 7월 이후 가장 큰 폭으로 감소했다.
외교적으로 민감한 대미무역수지 흑자는 416억5000만 달러로 4월의 138억 달러보다 급증했다.
캐피탈 이코노믹스(Capital Economics)의 마르셀 틸런트 선임 이코노미스트는 리서치 노트에서 “5월 수출이 증가했으나, 글로벌 수요와 무역전쟁 격화로 멀지 않아 다시 감소세로 돌아설 수 있다”고 평가했다.
전문가들은 중국의 5월 수출이 반등한 것은 미국의 관세 부과에 대비해 수출 업체가 선적을 서둘렀기 때문이라고 분석하고 무역전쟁이 지속하면 하반기로 갈수록 수출 주문이 줄어들 것으로 전망했다.
ANZ 리서치의 베티 왕 이코노미스트는 리서치 노트에서 “5월 수출이 예상보다 호조를 보인 것은 통화(위안화)가치 하락과 관세 인상에 대비한 선제적인 선적 때문일 수 있다”며 “중국의 올해 수출 전망에 대한 조심스러운 견해를 바꾸지 않을 것”이라고 밝혔다.
미중 무역협상 타결 전망이 여전히 불투명한 가운데 미국은 2000억 달러 규모의 중국산 수입품에 대한 관세를 25%로 인상했고 중국의 대표적인 IT기업인 화웨이에 대한 거래금지 조치를 단행했다. 현재 관세 부과 대상이 아닌 3000억 달러 규모의 중국산 수입품에 대한 25% 세율의 추가 관세 부과도 예고돼 있다.
도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령은 CNBC와의 인터뷰에서 오는 28-29일 일본 도쿄에서 열리는 G20 정상회의에서 시진핑 중국 국가주석과의 정상회담이 이루어지지 않으면 계획대로 3000억 달러 규모의 중국산 수입품에 대해 관세를 부과할 것이라고 말했다.
미국의 관세 폭탄에 대한 보복 조치로 중국도 이달 1일부터 600억 달러 규모의 미국산 수입품에 대한 관세를 인상한 데 이어 중국판 거래금지 대상 기업 지정을 준비하고 있다. 희토류의 대미 수출 금지 가능성도 시사했다.
이번 도쿄 G20 정상회의에서 트럼프 대통령과 시 주석 간 정상회담이 성사되고 정상 간 극적인 합의를 기대하는 게 유일한 희망이다.
씨티그룹의 조안나 차우 아시아 경제 담당 이코노미스트는 “경제적인 관점에서 보면 현재로서는 협상 타결이 양측에 상당한 이익이 된다”면서도 “하지만 정치적인 측면에서 보면 (타결이) 사실상 더 어려워지고 있다”고 말했다.
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