On Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing released an unexpectedly weak number for March employment (the more important Bureau of Labor Statistics release comes Friday morning at 8:30 EST). According to ADP, the US economy added 129,000 jobs rather than the consensus estimate of 175,000 jobs.

That is consistent with a sharp slowing of economic growth, from last year’s 2.8% to perhaps 1.5% in 2019 (in my back-of-the-envelope estimate). The biggest problem, as I tried to demonstrate in a March 8 analysis, is that the pool of unskilled workers available to labor-intensive industries has shrunk.

Read more: The 737 Max economy

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