One hears a lot recently that the United States lacks the wherewithal or the bandwidth to protect its allies, partners and interests in the Asia-Pacific owing to demands of the Iran War.
This is said within the context of America deterring or defeating potential Chinese aggression.
It’s not just timorous American allies who wonder.
US citizens in the US territory of the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) are wondering as well.
Super Typhoon Sinlaku plowed through CNMI and its main islands, Saipan, Tinian and Rota last week, causing widespread destruction.
FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Administration) is heading up the emergency response. One hopes USINDOPACOM in Honolulu is being proactive.
The military has a particular and vested interest.
US forces intend to make more use of CNMI as a training and logistics location and is rehabilitating old World War II airfields on Tinian as part of the US Air Force’s ‘agile combat employment’ scheme for a potential war in the region.
Typhoon Sinlaku caused damage of the sort that might happen in wartime, say, in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan when the PLA hits the broader American defense infrastructure in the region.
The typhoon recovery effort needs to be handled promptly, and not on “FEMA time.”
There is longstanding feeling among many islanders that they don’t really matter in Washington’s calculations. And anti-military, anti-US constituencies in CNMI aggressively push this narrative.
And the People’s Republic of China has for years been stoking this opposition via a concerted – and successful – political warfare campaign in CNMI. The key theme: “The Americans don’t care about you. We, the PRC do care about you, and we’ll make you rich.”
The Chinese have spread plenty of money around Saipan’s political and business class, including via the Imperial Pacific casino that operated on Saipan from around 2015 until it’s collapse. (Its assets have been bought by another company that may have ties to the old one.)
That money bought a lot of influence, and even now CNMI’s business lobby is promoting Chinese tourism and investment as the solution to the commonwealth’s chronic economic problems – to the point where CNMI is the only place in the US where Chinese can arrive without a visa, leading to Congressional concern about, among other issues, birth tourism.
A word about money …
FEMA’s recovery effort will presumably include financial assistance to CNMI. One local who lost everything in last week’s typhoon warned that the US government should closely monitor financial assistance provided to the commonwealth government.
Saipan’s governor from 2023-2025, the late Arnold Palacios discovered on taking office that over $1 billion in Covid relief and other US government financial assistance lacked proper auditing – including, for example, sanitation services charged at $4,300 an hour. And there are still questions about what happened to some of the funds and equipment after the last major typhoon – Yutu – hit CNMI in 2018.
Palacios repeatedly asked Washington to send investigators and accountants to uncover what happened – and prosecute. He was ignored.
And in the “you can’t make it up” category, the official at the US Department of Interior whose brief includes CNMI is Angel Demapan. Demapan was Chief of Staff to Ralph Torres, the then-CNMI governor on whose watch the aforementioned money was, at best, poorly audited.
Demapan also took Chinese casino money to help with his own election campaign. And Torres is running for governor again, posing in front of the planes bringing in supplies as if he were personally responsible for the shipments – and by implication, for the disbursements.
So be careful.
Locals – including the ones who need the help the most, are asking that the funds and supplies come with proper oversight and accountability, including perhaps inspectors general and federal comptrollers.
An opportunity for Japan?
Super Typhoon Sinlaku offers an opportunity for Japan – if it’s paying attention. The Japanese ought to offer to assist with the recovery effort. Saipan is only a four-hour flight from Tokyo and a fairly short trip by sea. The Japan Self-Defense Force is skilled at natural disaster recovery efforts and can be useful.
This might be viewed as returning the favor for Operation Tomodachi in 2011 when the American military assisted Japan’s emergency response efforts after the 3/11 earthquake and tsunami.
The American public would welcome this gesture, and the White House might ,also. And that’s important, given President Trump’s stated irritation at Japan for not helping out in the Persian Gulf.
Friends in need
When times are tough you see who your friends are. And these are fellow Americans in CNMI.
The Chinese and their local proxies claim the rest of the US doesn’t care about Americans on CNMI.
The US government and US military should move heaven and earth to demonstrate that they do.
And to show others looking for a sign of American staying power that it has a handle on things in the Pacific. If friends and neighbors want to pitch in as well, even better. If we can’t get this right, if we are distracted and uncoordinated, the Chinese might like their chances in Taiwan even more.
Colonel Grant Newsham (US Marines – Ret.) is the author of When China Attacks: A Warning to America.