When President Xi Jinping called on January 2 for Taiwan’s ”reunification” with China, it was not the first time a Chinese leader threatened to use military might to force the island nation’s incorporation with the mainland.
But when Xi told his military forces a few days later to make preparations for an all-out war, the call to arms was clearly different from previous threats made against the island Beijing views as a renegade province.
Xi is emerging as modern China’s third communist strongman, and as with the previous two autocrats, national unity is a main prerogative.
Mao Zedong, the founder of the Communist Party-created People’s Republic, brutally brought Tibet under China’s central rule. Deng Xiaoping, the Party’s second strongman leader, oversaw the negotiated takeover of former British Hong Kong and Portuguese Macau.
Xi evidently believes that one of the major tasks of his leadership is to annex Taiwan, which has been separated from the mainland since the 1949 communist victory in China’s civil war.
“Xi increased invasion rhetoric after Taiwan’s 2016 election swept-out the pro-Beijing [Kuomintang Party] from the presidency and legislature, setting a deadline of 2020 for a final decision on whether to storm the beaches or return to the negotiating table,” Wendell Minnick, a Taiwan-based military analyst and author of several books on China’s armed forces, said.
Other China watchers believe that 2021, the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, will be a crucial year for Taiwan. Through recent intra-Party power plays and purges, Xi has ensured that he will remain in power when those nationalistic celebrations are held.
In March 2018, China’s legislature re-approved the appointment of Xi as president, removing the two five-term limits to that post. Xi’s other two powerful positions — Communist party general secretary and chairman of the Party’s military commission — are not subject to term limits.
He is also the chairman of the government’s parallel military commission, a central state organ, cementing his role as China’s paramount leader.
China watchers still believe that war is the last option for Xi to get Taiwan to agree to a deal similar to that achieved for Hong Kong and Macau, dubbed “one country, two systems”, whereby those territories enjoy a large degree of autonomy.
But, in a January 2 speech, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen said that most Taiwanese are “staunchly opposed to the concept” and that they would “never accept” governance under the formula suggested by Xi and the Communist Party leadership in Beijing.
A recent opinion poll showed that 80% of Taiwanese would reject any ”one country, two systems” model, and that 61% were satisfied with Tsai’s response to Xi. Moreover, 85% approved of Tsai’s conditions for any talks with Beijing, including a requirement that they communicate on a government-to-government basis.
Tsai represents the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which sees Taiwan as a sovereign and democratic country that is not part of China. Her party suffered a major defeat at November 2018 local elections, including in its traditional stronghold in the southern port city of Kaohsiung, to the Kuomintang (KMT) party.
Although labor issues, pension reforms and an economic slowdown were the main factors in the result, China was quick to say that it “welcomed more cooperation between Taiwan’s cities and prefectures and the mainland” after the result.
After the poll, Ma Xiaoquang, spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, misleadingly said that the result “reflected the strong wishes of Taiwan’s general public…to continue to share the benefits of peaceful developments in cross-Taiwan Strait relations.”
The KMT has always claimed that China is one country and Taiwan a province, although “their” China is the Republic of China (ROC) — still Taiwan’s official name — as opposed to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland.
The DPP on the other hand would argue that Taiwan has been ruled from the mainland for only four of the past 123 years, and therefore has developed a separate identity. Taiwan was under Japanese rule from 1895 to 1945 and then united with the Republic of China until Mao’s communists took over the mainland in 1949.
Since then, the ROC has survived only on Taiwan and some smaller islands off the coast of China and to the south.
The DPP’s recent electoral disaster has apparently given Beijing hope for better relations and possible talks with the island in 2020, when Taiwan will elect a new president and legislature.
According to Minnick: “A return of the presidency to the KMT or third-party candidate would give China an excuse to avoid invading the island and move back to the negotiating table.”
But even the KMT, which adheres to a “one China policy”, issued a statement on January 3 saying that “the one country, two systems” framework was unacceptable for democratically run Taiwan because it lacked popular support.
The disagreement extends into the South China Sea, where China and Taiwan have competing overlapping claims. China’s military build-up in the South China Sea is seen mainly as part of a strategy to secure control of vital shipping lanes, but there is also a Taiwan element behind the drive, analysts say.
“China wants to secure the southern flank in case it decides to invade Taiwan,” claims a European Sinologist who follows events in the region and requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
When the United States shifted recognition from the ROC to PRC in 1979, Washington enacted the Taiwan Relations Act, which defined non-diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan.
The Act does not guarantee that the US will intervene militarily if China attacks or invades Taiwan, but it does state that America will “consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.”
The US has also pledged to provide Taiwan with arms of a “defensive character” to enable it to “resist any force or arms or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan.”
In September, the US approved a US$330 million arms sale to Taiwan that promises to significantly boost its defense capabilities. The deal covered parts for Taiwan’s fleets of F-16s, C-130s and F-5 military aircraft and other systems.
It is an open but important question to what extent Taiwan would be able to resist a possible invasion from the mainland. Taiwan has a modern and well-equipped military replete with US armaments which would make an invasion by China an extremely risky undertaking.
Taiwan is also developing its own defense industry capabilities with an eye on exports, thus reducing the cost for the military to arm itself. “Having covered Taiwan’s military for twenty tears, I’ve never seen them so aggressive in the international market,” Minnick said.
For the past few years, Taiwan’s National Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, which develops radars, missiles and sensors, has been exhibiting at defense shows in the Middle East, Europe and Asia.
But as Beijing ramps up its war rhetoric, strategic analysts are taking inventory of Taiwan’s wider defensive position vis-a-vis China.
Taiwan’s once heavily fortified “frontline islands” of Kinmen and Matsu — technically part of the ROC’s claimed “province of Fujian” and from where fierce battles with mainland China’s military were fought in the past — are now mostly demilitarized.
Though Taiwanese troops are still stationed there, they are deployed mostly to guard the islands from intruding fishermen from the mainland and repel illegal immigrants. At the same time, Taipei maintains sophisticated surveillance facilities on the islands aimed at China that are crucial to Taiwan’s defense.
Taiwan also controls Taiping island, or Itu Aba, in the South China Sea and the Pratas, or Dongsha, islands to the north, but only coast guard forces are stationed there.
That leaves the Penghu islands between Taiwan and the mainland as well as and Dongyin island north of Matsu for China to worry about before any of its invading troops could reach the ROC’s main island.
Taiwan maintains a long-range surface-to-air missile base on Dongyin, just 45 kilometers from China’s coastline in mainland Fujian. In September, it was reported that Taiwan’s Navy is seeking fast-attack boats with anti-ship missiles to defend the island against a potential Chinese invasion.
With a new Taiwanese generation raised, as Minnick puts it, “on computers, fast food and a sense of entitlement” and which sees the procurement of weapons as a waste of state funds that could be better spent on things like education, China may think that Taiwan’s defenses have softened over the years and an invasion would be a quick and easy affair.
There are also fears in Taiwan’s power elite that US President Donald Trump’s administration might be willing to do a deal with China on trade issues that could include a US vow to stop protecting Taiwan’s democracy, according to sources in Taiwan.
On the other hand, Trump’s government has sold arms, encouraged official exchanges and recently appointed the pro-Taiwan and China hawk John Bolton as national security advisor.
Either way, Taiwan’s high-tech military is well prepared for any Chinese military action that, if failed, would prove fatal for Xi’s place in history as the leader who achieved what he sees as the final ”reunification” of China. But as economic pressures build at home, Xi may being willing to take the risk to fulfill that vision and cement his legacy.
Xi merely reiterated China’s longstanding position on Taiwan. It doesn’t mean war is imminent. As far as a call to prepare for war, China is abysmally unprepared for war compared to the US. Everyone knows this.
Xi merely reiterated China’s longstanding position on Taiwan. It doesn’t mean war is imminent. As far as a call to prepare for war, China is abysmally unprepared for war compared to the US. Everyone knows this.
What advance weapons? It has only 10 Patriot 3 systems.
75% of the anti-air missles are WW2 era. It’s newest missle boasted as carrier killer did kill a fisherman but did not sink the tiny boat.
What advance weapons? It has only 10 Patriot 3 systems.
75% of the anti-air missles are WW2 era. It’s newest missle boasted as carrier killer did kill a fisherman but did not sink the tiny boat.
It’s a battle of Taiwan’s US advance weaponry versus China’s propaganda and clunker weaponry.
It’s a battle of Taiwan’s US advance weaponry versus China’s propaganda and clunker weaponry.
Winston Medved aka Yashad Rizvi, the writer is probably implying repelling illegal Indians like you……lol
Winston Medved aka Yashad Rizvi, the writer is probably implying repelling illegal Indians like you……lol
WHERE DID THE WRITER EVER COME UP WITH THE IDEA THAT CHINA WOULD LOOSE IF THEY INVADED THE ISLAND. NEVER,BUT THE PROBLEM TO WIN IS MASSACRE OF THE PEOPLE THEY ARE TRYING TO UNIT. THATS THE PROBELM LET THE TIME PASS AND AS THE PEOLE OF TIAWAN SEE THE CITIES AND INRASTRUCTURE THAT IS ON THE MAINLAND THEY WILL EVENTUALLY JOIN THEIR BROTHES OF WHICH IS WHERE THEY BELONG.
WHERE DID THE WRITER EVER COME UP WITH THE IDEA THAT CHINA WOULD LOOSE IF THEY INVADED THE ISLAND. NEVER,BUT THE PROBLEM TO WIN IS MASSACRE OF THE PEOPLE THEY ARE TRYING TO UNIT. THATS THE PROBELM LET THE TIME PASS AND AS THE PEOLE OF TIAWAN SEE THE CITIES AND INRASTRUCTURE THAT IS ON THE MAINLAND THEY WILL EVENTUALLY JOIN THEIR BROTHES OF WHICH IS WHERE THEY BELONG.
There are many ways to skin a cat. The last thing the Chinese will do to reassert its authority over Taiwan , if its hands are forced, is to use force. No country, not even the US would lift a finger to fight for Taiwan. They have recognized it as China’s territory. Only the writer didn’t.
There are many ways to skin a cat. The last thing the Chinese will do to reassert its authority over Taiwan , if its hands are forced, is to use force. No country, not even the US would lift a finger to fight for Taiwan. They have recognized it as China’s territory. Only the writer didn’t.
According to the author a China invasion of Taiwan would fail because:
1) A recent opinion poll showed that 80% of Taiwanese would reject any ”one country, two systems” model
Rebuttal: The recently concluded provincial mayor election on 24th Nov 2018 was a landslide win by the KMT. They took 15 out of 22 municipalities. The DPP lost 7 of its 13 municipalities. Taiwan’s local political map was changed from green to blue. The KMT win was a direct result of the new kaohsiung mayor, han kuo yu’s campaign based on the 92 consensus. In line with the mayoral elections, 10 referendums were also voted upon. One of it was the usage of the name "taiwan" in the tokyo 2020 olympics. Taiwanese overwhelmingly voted against the usage of the "taiwan" name, prefering to remain with "chinese taipei". This was a huge slap to the face of the DPP who championed independence. In a most recent survey, taiwanese voted 61% in support of the 92 consensus. Next, a taiwan version of "one country, two systems" will emerge to the satisfaction of all taiwanese. This was promised and stated clearly by Xi in his Jan 2, " Message to Taiwan Compatriots" speech. In it, he promised taiwanese present style of life, politics, business, education, religion, etc, etc, will be preserved.
2) The Act does not guarantee that the US will intervene militarily if China attacks or invades Taiwan, but it does state that America will “consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.”
Rebuttal:Taiwan’s future is not for any made in america law to determine. Its future will be determined by taiwanese and compatriots across the straits. In the event if force is employed to achieve reunification, the empire and its allies are welcome to intervene but do make preparation for tons of coffins to take home. In addition, be prepared to see the flag of the PRC flying on Diaoyu islands and a liberated Kingdom of Ryukyus (old name: Okinawa).
3) Taiwan maintains a long-range surface-to-air missile base on Dongyin, just 45 kilometers from China’s coastline … pro-Taiwan and China hawk John Bolton as national security advisor.
Rebuttal: Taiwanese air defence consisted largely of WWII vintage surface to air missile batteries that have very limited range and are highly inaccurate. (Hence they had to move it to Dongyin). Of the 10 Patriots missile batteries, 3 each are positioned in the north, central and south of the island. Only one battery is positioned on the eastern side. Across the straits, the mainland is spoilt for choice on the military hardware it will choose to vanquish taiwanese air defence capabilities including its air force, navy and land troops. John Bolton is senile and mentally unstable, just like his boss.
4) Either way, Taiwan’s high-tech military is well prepared for any Chinese
invasion…
Rebuttal: Taiwan’s military is so high tech that its newly developed and hotly tauted anti-ship missile, HsiungFeng III was mistakenly fired by an inexperienced soldier and hit a fishing boat during target practice. The result was; one fisherman dead and another injured. As for Xi my advice for the author is to just relax and head for the nearest watering hole. Xi is not about to be fatally removed from office by any measure anytime soon.
Xi has many more ways to achieve taiwanese reunification, force of arms is just a remote possibility. The DPP’s current president, tsai ing-wen is being trashed from within and without her own party. WIth a popularity rating of just 19% she would stooped so low as to arrange a "kiss ass" public meeting with the newly re-elected taipei mayor ke wen-je in an attempt to join force for the coming 2020 presidential election. Throughout the meeting, ke wen-je kept giving her the cold shoulder. Just a few days ago, 4 of her own party’s pro-independence bosses published a half page ad in a local daily to publicly denounce her by demanding that she handover executive powers and recede into the rank and file. Things are looking very bad for the DPP now and according to most political analysts in taiwan, it will face the same trashing it received in the recent local elections if tsai insist on running in 2020, much to the delight of her opponents such as the KMT and Ke wen-je.
There is a high chance taiwan will be reunited without a shot being fired in the next few years. I hope the author live to see it and weep.
I still fail to see why a chinese invasion of taiwan would fail.
According to the author a China invasion of Taiwan would fail because:
1) A recent opinion poll showed that 80% of Taiwanese would reject any ”one country, two systems” model
Rebuttal: The recently concluded provincial mayor election on 24th Nov 2018 was a landslide win by the KMT. They took 15 out of 22 municipalities. The DPP lost 7 of its 13 municipalities. Taiwan’s local political map was changed from green to blue. The KMT win was a direct result of the new kaohsiung mayor, han kuo yu’s campaign based on the 92 consensus. In line with the mayoral elections, 10 referendums were also voted upon. One of it was the usage of the name "taiwan" in the tokyo 2020 olympics. Taiwanese overwhelmingly voted against the usage of the "taiwan" name, prefering to remain with "chinese taipei". This was a huge slap to the face of the DPP who championed independence. In a most recent survey, taiwanese voted 61% in support of the 92 consensus. Next, a taiwan version of "one country, two systems" will emerge to the satisfaction of all taiwanese. This was promised and stated clearly by Xi in his Jan 2, " Message to Taiwan Compatriots" speech. In it, he promised taiwanese present style of life, politics, business, education, religion, etc, etc, will be preserved.
2) The Act does not guarantee that the US will intervene militarily if China attacks or invades Taiwan, but it does state that America will “consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.”
Rebuttal:Taiwan’s future is not for any made in america law to determine. Its future will be determined by taiwanese and compatriots across the straits. In the event if force is employed to achieve reunification, the empire and its allies are welcome to intervene but do make preparation for tons of coffins to take home. In addition, be prepared to see the flag of the PRC flying on Diaoyu islands and a liberated Kingdom of Ryukyus (old name: Okinawa).
3) Taiwan maintains a long-range surface-to-air missile base on Dongyin, just 45 kilometers from China’s coastline … pro-Taiwan and China hawk John Bolton as national security advisor.
Rebuttal: Taiwanese air defence consisted largely of WWII vintage surface to air missile batteries that have very limited range and are highly inaccurate. (Hence they had to move it to Dongyin). Of the 10 Patriots missile batteries, 3 each are positioned in the north, central and south of the island. Only one battery is positioned on the eastern side. Across the straits, the mainland is spoilt for choice on the military hardware it will choose to vanquish taiwanese air defence capabilities including its air force, navy and land troops. John Bolton is senile and mentally unstable, just like his boss.
4) Either way, Taiwan’s high-tech military is well prepared for any Chinese
invasion…
Rebuttal: Taiwan’s military is so high tech that its newly developed and hotly tauted anti-ship missile, HsiungFeng III was mistakenly fired by an inexperienced soldier and hit a fishing boat during target practice. The result was; one fisherman dead and another injured. As for Xi my advice for the author is to just relax and head for the nearest watering hole. Xi is not about to be fatally removed from office by any measure anytime soon.
Xi has many more ways to achieve taiwanese reunification, force of arms is just a remote possibility. The DPP’s current president, tsai ing-wen is being trashed from within and without her own party. WIth a popularity rating of just 19% she would stooped so low as to arrange a "kiss ass" public meeting with the newly re-elected taipei mayor ke wen-je in an attempt to join force for the coming 2020 presidential election. Throughout the meeting, ke wen-je kept giving her the cold shoulder. Just a few days ago, 4 of her own party’s pro-independence bosses published a half page ad in a local daily to publicly denounce her by demanding that she handover executive powers and recede into the rank and file. Things are looking very bad for the DPP now and according to most political analysts in taiwan, it will face the same trashing it received in the recent local elections if tsai insist on running in 2020, much to the delight of her opponents such as the KMT and Ke wen-je.
There is a high chance taiwan will be reunited without a shot being fired in the next few years. I hope the author live to see it and weep.
I still fail to see why a chinese invasion of taiwan would fail.
another western china expert, but can’t read a single chinese character the begin with, expert !
another western china expert, but can’t read a single chinese character the begin with, expert !
cry louder
cry louder
Gweilos are of the kind that always looks at another race with judgemental lens and sees its own self as superior.
But with a US national IQ of 98 according to mensa, just how intelligent can these hook noses be, LOL, is a big question.
On the other hand, China, Korea, Japan, HK and Singapore occupy the global top 5 positions at 105 to 108.
As for indians, they are at a low of 82 !! No, no, this is not a typo. Now, you really can’t expect illiterates to score high, do you?
Gweilos are of the kind that always looks at another race with judgemental lens and sees its own self as superior.
But with a US national IQ of 98 according to mensa, just how intelligent can these hook noses be, LOL, is a big question.
On the other hand, China, Korea, Japan, HK and Singapore occupy the global top 5 positions at 105 to 108.
As for indians, they are at a low of 82 !! No, no, this is not a typo. Now, you really can’t expect illiterates to score high, do you?