Taiwan concluded its version of midterm elections about two weeks ago. The defeat of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was as one-sided as was the reverse outcome four years earlier when it beat the Kuomintang (KMT).
Among 22 seats at the mayoral level for counties and cities, the DPP lost seven after holding 13 seats in 2014, while the KMT gained nine, to end up with 15 seats, from six in 2014. The mayor of Taipei municipality remains a non-affiliated Independent.
In terms of total votes cast, the KMT got 6.1 million while the DPP garnered fewer than 4.9 million. Four years earlier, the DPP got 5.8 million votes while the KMT received nearly 5 million.
Prominent American observers of Taiwan such as Kharis Templeman at Stanford University and Richard Bush at the Brookings Institution were quick to claim that the results were not because of external factors linked to cross-Strait relations but were strictly because of domestic issues.
I beg to differ.
When Tsai Ing-wen ran for president in 2016, she ran on an uncompromising platform of independence for the island and Taiwan not being part of “one China.”
After she won the election, she tried to walk back from being out so far on a limb, but so long as she was unwilling to recognize the “1992 Consensus,” Beijing was not going to throw her a lifeline.
Her predecessor as president, the KMT’s Ma Ying-jeou, had quite willingly abided by the Consensus, meaning that both sides of the Strait believe there is “one China” but each side is free to make its own interpretation as to what that means.
With a one-China agreement under Ma, cross-Strait trade flourished and a healthy surplus accrued to Taiwan. Without that agreement under Tsai, mainland tourists stopped coming and trade slowed to a trickle.
Taiwan’s cream of the crop goes to Shanghai
A professor friend in Taiwan tells me that as many as 30% of the annual university graduates now leave an economically depressed Taiwan for the Greater Shanghai area to seek entry-level jobs and the start of their careers. The salaries are better and the future prospects more promising.
The best and most advanced Taiwanese companies have already established factories and service centers on the mainland, some have even completely moved off the island.
If the best and brightest talents have left Taiwan, for China or even the US, and if the most promising companies are focused elsewhere, then Taiwan is left with second-rate talent and enterprises, a mere shadow of its former “little tiger” self.
Tsai Ing-wen does understand what’s going on and has been making conciliatory gestures toward Beijing, but to recant and mouth the line, “I buy the one-China consensus,” is simply too much to ask for, and her hardcore support base would abandon her. She is indeed between a rock and a hard place.
Just as earlier president Lee Teng-hui tried to do in the late 1990s, Tsai is promoting the idea of Taiwanese companies expanding to the south and west, meaning the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand.
But Taiwanese companies enjoy the advantages of common language and culture with the mainland, not to mention favorable policy; those advantages do not exist in other countries.
Just as it was under Lee, Taiwanese companies diversifying to other countries have not met with success.
So while American pundits like to hold up Taiwan as Asia’s shining beacon for democracy, the recent election result still boils down to one universal condition needed for democracy to succeed. “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Han Kuo-yu represents a new approach
No election result bears this simple truth more emphatically than the election of Han Kuo-yu as mayor of Kaohsiung, the second-largest city in Taiwan.
At the start of the election season, nobody gave Han a remote chance of winning, not even his own party, the KMT.
The DPP has been firmly entrenched in Kaohsiung for two decades. The KMT nominated a political nobody as a pro forma placeholder candidate and gave him no support. He literally was unemployed at the time he was picked to run.
But Han ran hard based on his promise to make Kaohsiung rich again and create jobs so that the young people don’t have to go to Taipei to look for employment.
Han won with 54% of the vote. He immediately declared that he looked forward to working with the mainland and regardless of Tsai’s position, he has no problem with the 1992 one-China consensus.
Other newly elected KMT mayors also declared that they were ready to follow Han’s lead and work directly with the mainland.
This election in Taiwan was an important lesson for Beijing as well. Past missile threats and rhetorical bluster only stiffen the Taiwanese people’s back.
The pro-independence Sunflower Movement born of resentment toward Beijing that disrupted the Ma Ying-jeou administration has been a non-factor in this election. Young people today are ignoring the Sunflower Movement as irrelevant. They are more concerned about their careers and making money.
Let the Han Kuo-yus of Taiwan show the people that working with the mainland is the win-win solution. The widespread recognition of the benefits of positive cross-Strait relations will bring both sides closer together until that day when de facto unification becomes a reality.
Right on.
Right on.
Bravo Dr Koo for telling it as it is.
Bravo Dr Koo for telling it as it is.
Han Kuo-yu is a g.reat politician
without US there will be no troubles at the Far East, including Taiwan. Vietnam, and korea. I believe US will pay foe what they did at the long run. as judged by the God.
without US there will be no troubles at the Far East, including Taiwan. Vietnam, and korea. I believe US will pay foe what they did at the long run. as judged by the God.
Dr. Koo gave a clear interpretation of Taiwan’s election and implication for the future.
Dr. Koo gave a clear interpretation of Taiwan’s election and implication for the future.
Taiwan has the highest value with mainland on technology advancement, It’s just a pawn with the US. Do not expect US to
send troops 6000 miles away to protect Taiwan.
Taiwan has the highest value with mainland on technology advancement, It’s just a pawn with the US. Do not expect US to
send troops 6000 miles away to protect Taiwan.
Without US there will be no troubles at the Far East, including Taiwan. Vietnam, and korea. I believe US will pay for what they did at the long run. as judged by the God.
If US understand the Chinese culture, they might react differently. If they could work with China, the world will become a very different one, more civilized, more respectful to one andother, more humanized and more
peaceful. Now, the Africans might have a better understanding of the
Chinese culture than the so called the countries of the white people.
China might bully their own people but never the outsiders. They had not invaded or tried to separate other people’s country in order to get their own benefits, like the US and the British in thel ast two centuries.
Without US there will be no troubles at the Far East, including Taiwan. Vietnam, and korea. I believe US will pay for what they did at the long run. as judged by the God.
If US understand the Chinese culture, they might react differently. If they could work with China, the world will become a very different one, more civilized, more respectful to one andother, more humanized and more
peaceful. Now, the Africans might have a better understanding of the
Chinese culture than the so called the countries of the white people.
China might bully their own people but never the outsiders. They had not invaded or tried to separate other people’s country in order to get their own benefits, like the US and the British in thel ast two centuries.
Just hope the WORLD will learn from this situation of CHONA and Taiwan …in future it might happen in Africa or South America ! Because the Middle East failed to understand the Korean and Vietnam Wars …and now look what a miserable place it is now ! They are killing themselves for uncle SAM !!!
Just hope the WORLD will learn from this situation of CHONA and Taiwan …in future it might happen in Africa or South America ! Because the Middle East failed to understand the Korean and Vietnam Wars …and now look what a miserable place it is now ! They are killing themselves for uncle SAM !!!
George, well said. As we grew up in Taiwan in our teens and college years, we know how the life was. We studied hard, worked hard with forward looking as a Chinese. Yet DPP denied the existence of China and has done nothing to improve the quality of island people’s living standards except it forgot they too enjoyed the prosperity by inheriting all the fortune brought over by KMT in 1949.
George, well said. As we grew up in Taiwan in our teens and college years, we know how the life was. We studied hard, worked hard with forward looking as a Chinese. Yet DPP denied the existence of China and has done nothing to improve the quality of island people’s living standards except it forgot they too enjoyed the prosperity by inheriting all the fortune brought over by KMT in 1949.
When China first opened up, it was money and knowhow from overseas Chinese mainly Taiwan, Hong Kong and Southeast Asia that gave it a turbo charge. They share the same language, culture and history. Therefore their success was assured. To deny Taiwan being a part of China is not only historically incorrect but also self destructive to its well being and certainly its economy. For the Tsai’s administration to give up its build in advantage as Chinese is nothing short of irresponsibility to all those who live in Taiwan.
When China first opened up, it was money and knowhow from overseas Chinese mainly Taiwan, Hong Kong and Southeast Asia that gave it a turbo charge. They share the same language, culture and history. Therefore their success was assured. To deny Taiwan being a part of China is not only historically incorrect but also self destructive to its well being and certainly its economy. For the Tsai’s administration to give up its build in advantage as Chinese is nothing short of irresponsibility to all those who live in Taiwan.
The unusual outcome of recent Taiwan election was explained by Koo to those not familiar with the situation. DPP lost unexpectedly due to poor economy.
The unusual outcome of recent Taiwan election was explained by Koo to those not familiar with the situation. DPP lost unexpectedly due to poor economy.
About 2,500 years ago, China was divided into seven warring kingdoms. Each was as aggressive, cruel, ambitious, domineering, as Spain, Great Britain, USA, in recent centuries. After 250 years of fighting, they were united by force into one China.
However, ever since Han Dynasty when the government leaders started to have Confucius thoughts as national doctrine, China, being the center of that part of the world, has never invaded any of its relatively weak neighbors for the next 2,200 years until today. Those neighboring countries, like Korea, Vietnam, Burma, and so on just become protectory nations of China. For instance, China sent its military to help when Korea was invaded by Japan. One Philippines leader came to China and suggested that China took in his country to become a part of China. China with no ambition to colonize anybody else turned down the asking but continued to protect Philippines. One Philippines leader liked China so much. He requested that he be allowed to live in China for his old age. He did and died in China.
I have a friend from Taiwan. He was very deep green. Then, the color started to change, first light green, then a little pink. I expect that he may eventually become fully red, China red. He said to me, "Even if Taiwan does become an independent country, Taiwan cannot count on Japan and USA, being far away. Due to geographic proximity, Taiwan will likely become one of those protectory nations of China. Meanwhile, I look at myself. I am fully qualified to be a citizen of China, as judged by my birth right, my blood, my race, my ancestry, my family roots, my language, my faith in Buddha, my prayers to Ma-Zu, my preferred Chinese dishes, my customs, my love for Chinese soap operas, my fascination of kung-fu novels written by Jin Yong, and so on, and so on. The only thing standing in my way, is this dog-gone government under the leadership of Tsai Yinwen. Damn it, why should I care about that?! She has not done any good for us, the common people. Why should I want to be just a person of a protectory nation of China?! I want to become a 100% and proud Chinese. Unification of Taiwan and Mainland China is what I want!"
About 2,500 years ago, China was divided into seven warring kingdoms. Each was as aggressive, cruel, ambitious, domineering, as Spain, Great Britain, USA, in recent centuries. After 250 years of fighting, they were united by force into one China.
However, ever since Han Dynasty when the government leaders started to have Confucius thoughts as national doctrine, China, being the center of that part of the world, has never invaded any of its relatively weak neighbors for the next 2,200 years until today. Those neighboring countries, like Korea, Vietnam, Burma, and so on just become protectory nations of China. For instance, China sent its military to help when Korea was invaded by Japan. One Philippines leader came to China and suggested that China took in his country to become a part of China. China with no ambition to colonize anybody else turned down the asking but continued to protect Philippines. One Philippines leader liked China so much. He requested that he be allowed to live in China for his old age. He did and died in China.
I have a friend from Taiwan. He was very deep green. Then, the color started to change, first light green, then a little pink. I expect that he may eventually become fully red, China red. He said to me, "Even if Taiwan does become an independent country, Taiwan cannot count on Japan and USA, being far away. Due to geographic proximity, Taiwan will likely become one of those protectory nations of China. Meanwhile, I look at myself. I am fully qualified to be a citizen of China, as judged by my birth right, my blood, my race, my ancestry, my family roots, my language, my faith in Buddha, my prayers to Ma-Zu, my preferred Chinese dishes, my customs, my love for Chinese soap operas, my fascination of kung-fu novels written by Jin Yong, and so on, and so on. The only thing standing in my way, is this dog-gone government under the leadership of Tsai Yinwen. Damn it, why should I care about that?! She has not done any good for us, the common people. Why should I want to be just a person of a protectory nation of China?! I want to become a 100% and proud Chinese. Unification of Taiwan and Mainland China is what I want!"