In the near future, could the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Navy out-number and outgun the US Navy? According to informed sources, it is not only possible, it is likely within 15 years.
An essay written by Boston College Political Science Professor Robert Ross, an expert on Chinese defense and security policy, appeared in the influential Lawfare blog on November 18. Entitled “The End of US Naval Dominance in Asia,” it warns that at current rates of spending, the days of the US Navy’s position as the world’s dominant sea force are numbered.
PLA set to take the lead
“The rapid rise of the Chinese Navy has challenged US maritime dominance throughout East Asian waters,” Ross writes. “The US, though, has not been able to fund a robust shipbuilding plan that could maintain the regional security order and compete effectively with China’s naval build-up.
“The resulting transformation of the balance of power has led to fundamental changes in US acquisitions and defense strategy. Nonetheless, the US has yet to come to terms with its diminished influence in East Asia.”
Ross provides ample evidence that China is well on its way to deploying a naval fleet that will not only be larger than that of the US, but increasingly more modern. From 2017 to 2018, for example, as China’s Navy grew from 328 to 350 ships, more than 70% were of the latest designs – up from 50% in 2010, based on a RAND Corp study.
“China is the largest ship-producing country in the world and at current production rates could soon operate 400 (naval) ships. It commissions nearly three submarines each year, and in two years will have more than 70 in its fleet. The Chinese Navy also operates growing numbers of cruisers, destroyers, frigates and corvettes, all equipped with long-range anti-ship cruise missiles.
“Between 2013 and 2016, China commissioned more than 30 modern corvettes. At current rates, China could have 430 surface ships and 100 submarines within the next 15 years,” Ross writes.
Ross asserts that while the US Navy now retains maritime superiority throughout East Asia, “the trend is what matters and the trend is less rosy.” The numbers are stark: In 12 years, the active US naval fleet will decline to 237 ships and in six years, the US submarine fleet will decline to 48 boats, according to Ross’ data.
“Both the navy and the White House have pushed to grow the US fleet, but budgets have not kept pace with their plans,” Ross writes. “In 2015, the navy planned to increase the fleet to 308 ships by 2022, and the Trump administration plans a 355-ship navy. To reach 308 ships, the navy will have to spend 36% more than the average shipbuilding budget over the past 30 years, requiring a one-third increase in its current budget.”
If funding continues at the same average maintained for the last three decades, the US Navy will likely purchase 75 fewer ships than planned over the next three decades. To reach a fleet of 355 ships, the navy will need a budget 80% higher than the average shipbuilding budget over the past 30 years, and approximately 50% more than the average budget of the past six years, Ross found.
“Reallocation of the federal budget to support ship construction is not likely,” he writes.
Asian allies start to wobble
Ross addresses the consequences of the US Navy’s increasing reluctance or inability to address the situation it faces, noting that a strain on relationships with traditional allies in East and Southeast Asia is becoming more apparent.
“Developments in the maritime balance have weakened the confidence of East Asian countries in the ability of the United States to fulfill its security commitments and they are improving security cooperation with China,” says Ross.
“South Korea recently reached an agreement with China to limit missile-defense cooperation with the US and security cooperation with the US-Japan alliance.”
Seoul’s steps were taken in an effort to calm Beijing’s fury over the deployment of a Theater High-Altitude Terminal Air Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system in South Korea.
South Korea has also “moved ahead with cooperation with North Korea, with Chinese support and despite US opposition,” Ross writes.
In the last month, it has become clear that while Seoul wants Washington to accelerate its pace of engagement with Pyongyang, Washington wants Seoul to slow down.
Elsewhere, there have been signs of growing insecurity among America’s ASEAN partners.
“The Philippines has reduced the scale of its defense cooperation with the United States and improved security ties with China. Beijing now constrains Vietnamese defense cooperation with the US, as well. And China and Malaysia have begun joint military exercises and Malaysia has not supported US policy on Chinese claims in the South China Sea,” writes Ross.
“Most recently, China and ASEAN have conducted their first joint naval exercise. The US enjoys continued robust defense cooperation with all of these countries. But, as is the case with the maritime balance, it is the trend that matters and the trend is not good for US security.”
In November 2018, “the [US] Navy carried out its largest-ever exercise with Japan,” Ross says, and goes on to add a cautionary note: “But increased up-tempo US naval presence in East Asia without the requisite underlying naval capabilities to contend with China’s rise will neither constrain China’s naval activism nor reassure US Allies.”
Meanwhile, construction of China’s third aircraft carrier is underway, and unmanned radar and optical monitoring stations are beginning to appear at China-controlled sites in the South China Sea.
China’s top-tier naval assets
Amid opacity about PLA Naval assets and capabilities, concerned players are keeping an eye on using increasingly sophisticated platforms.
For example, Catherine Dill of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, was recently interviewed by Defense One. In the interview, she noted the remarkably “high cadence” of Planet Labs satellite imagery, which provided her team with “244 days of exploitable imagery to monitor from July 2017 to November 2018” alone.
Her comments surfaced as a broader debate gets underway concerning not only the actual number of Chinese nuclear submarines – both under development and operational – but the extent to which China now possesses “a credible sea-based deterrent.”
Defense One concluded that only two – or half of – China’s fleet of four nuclear-armed SSBNs (Ship, Submersible, Ballistic, Nuclear) appear to be operational. This places Defense One and other like-minded organizations at odds with both the Defense Department’s 2018 China Military Report and CSIS’s China Power group, which stated that China had all four nuclear-armed submarines in operation.
These disagreements are indicative of the lack of clarity over the capabilities of the Chinese Navy. Ross has combined what is now known about the PLA Navy with the challenges the US Navy will face in the near future. For advocates and dependents of US dominance over the world’s oceans, it may make for grim reading.
Yashad Rizvi good debate mr rizvi, im with you
Yashad Rizvi good debate mr rizvi, im with you
Yashad Rizvi Nobody give a fvck u were getting cheap whores in East Europe. USSR bankrupted after Deng Xiao Ping told USA how to tie them down in Afganistan and bankrupt them by not buying oil from them and get OPEC to lower oil price. DUMB FVCK.
Yashad Rizvi Nobody give a fvck u were getting cheap whores in East Europe. USSR bankrupted after Deng Xiao Ping told USA how to tie them down in Afganistan and bankrupt them by not buying oil from them and get OPEC to lower oil price. DUMB FVCK.
Too all freedom loving friends, beware of your posts with atimes as its tightly monitored and controlled by CCP. Written articles I’ve posted re China’s Ponzi economy, debt about to explode, and potential economic collapse was deleted everytime I reposted. China is really scared of news re its potential economic collapse. Try it to confirm.
Too all freedom loving friends, beware of your posts with atimes as its tightly monitored and controlled by CCP. Written articles I’ve posted re China’s Ponzi economy, debt about to explode, and potential economic collapse was deleted everytime I reposted. China is really scared of news re its potential economic collapse. Try it to confirm.
Yashad Rizvi Dumb retard, those countries are like fvcking ants compare to China. And claiming as allies is just CIA fake news to keep occupying them.
Yashad Rizvi Dumb retard, those countries are like fvcking ants compare to China. And claiming as allies is just CIA fake news to keep occupying them.
http://www.crusoeresearch.com/article/jim-rickards-debt-bomb-ready-to-explode/
http://www.crusoeresearch.com/article/jim-rickards-debt-bomb-ready-to-explode/
Unfortunately most Americans are dumb as bricks, unlike U, I’d have to say, and believe anything charismatic leader says or tweets without question.
Unfortunately most Americans are dumb as bricks, unlike U, I’d have to say, and believe anything charismatic leader says or tweets without question.
Yashad Rizvi, c’mon now, don’t be coy. Just tell us what your country of origin is.
Yashad Rizvi, c’mon now, don’t be coy. Just tell us what your country of origin is.
WuKong Sun You’re right China don’t need more garbage as it’s full of filth and highly polluted air and water. Also, where can you find persons spitting phlegm on a bus aisle ? That’s only in China !
WuKong Sun You’re right China don’t need more garbage as it’s full of filth and highly polluted air and water. Also, where can you find persons spitting phlegm on a bus aisle ? That’s only in China !
Totally agree.
Totally agree.
Winnie Xi Pooh just said last time he will go to war if Duterte drills in the Philippines own maritime territory as decided by UNCLOS. Who then is lying ?
Winnie Xi Pooh just said last time he will go to war if Duterte drills in the Philippines own maritime territory as decided by UNCLOS. Who then is lying ?
Enb Libra Retard, I said stop importing garbage, that would include u. China not even in top 10 most polluted cities anymore https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/03/here-are-the-worlds-10-most-polluted-cities–9-are-in-india.html
Enb Libra Retard, I said stop importing garbage, that would include u. China not even in top 10 most polluted cities anymore https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/03/here-are-the-worlds-10-most-polluted-cities–9-are-in-india.html
Enb Libra BTW if u feel it’s best to keep sh!t in your mouth to look "civilized" that’s u fvcking choice. I personally like to spit it out of me. hahahaha…
And I’m stating a fact moron:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/relay.nationalgeographic.com/proxy/distribution/public/amp/environment/2018/11/china-ban-plastic-trash-imports-shifts-waste-crisis-southeast-asia-malaysia
Enb Libra BTW if u feel it’s best to keep sh!t in your mouth to look "civilized" that’s u fvcking choice. I personally like to spit it out of me. hahahaha…
And I’m stating a fact moron:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/relay.nationalgeographic.com/proxy/distribution/public/amp/environment/2018/11/china-ban-plastic-trash-imports-shifts-waste-crisis-southeast-asia-malaysia
WuKong Sun You fool your deluding yourself that your country is not highly polluted and full of filth. Your China enviro ministry said that’s extremely stupidity. That includes you ! No coverups chinky eyed good for nothing monkey. Hehehe
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201811300054.html
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/2166542/air-pollution-killing-1-million-people-and-costing-chinese
WuKong Sun You fool your deluding yourself that your country is not highly polluted and full of filth. Your China enviro ministry said that’s extremely stupidity. That includes you ! No coverups chinky eyed good for nothing monkey. Hehehe
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201811300054.html
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/2166542/air-pollution-killing-1-million-people-and-costing-chinese
Wukong Sun I tend to believe that China cough up a very large sum to CNBC to exclude and cover up the filth of your nation. Anyway, that’s chump change for China to project an image of cleanliness. Unforttunately, there’s so much filth lying around that ‘s almost impossible to cover up.
Wukong Sun I tend to believe that China cough up a very large sum to CNBC to exclude and cover up the filth of your nation. Anyway, that’s chump change for China to project an image of cleanliness. Unforttunately, there’s so much filth lying around that ‘s almost impossible to cover up.
Enb Libra If China is so corrupted how did 1+billion went from the poorest in Asia to the top with most billionaires, and top 5 per capita, and lifted billion people out of poverty!?
Here is the whole fvcking list moron. Face the truth, dumb fvck.
https://www.google.com/search?q=south+east+asia+garbage
Enb Libra If China is so corrupted how did 1+billion went from the poorest in Asia to the top with most billionaires, and top 5 per capita, and lifted billion people out of poverty!?
Here is the whole fvcking list moron. Face the truth, dumb fvck.
https://www.google.com/search?q=south+east+asia+garbage
U can’t be fvcking serious. China has 1.4 BILLION people growing at 0.59% that’s more 8million per yr, another fvcking New York city every yr. Moron. The older generation all got FUNDED pension plans, and the younger generation has their salary increasing 10% per yr, or more if in hot fields, that’s doubling your salary every 7 or 8 yrs.
U can’t be fvcking serious. China has 1.4 BILLION people growing at 0.59% that’s more 8million per yr, another fvcking New York city every yr. Moron. The older generation all got FUNDED pension plans, and the younger generation has their salary increasing 10% per yr, or more if in hot fields, that’s doubling your salary every 7 or 8 yrs.
WuKong Sun Read and go fvck yourself and your extreme stupidity as written :
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201811300054.html
WuKong Sun Read and go fvck yourself and your extreme stupidity as written :
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201811300054.html
Wumao Wukong Sun have you got paid your dues of 0.5rmb/post already. Are you getting close to become a billionaire. Speak for yourself and don’t mention other billionaires. You’re not on the same league. Even then, if you don’t have $1M, you should go suck Xi Jin Pig’s ass. You’ll definitely enjoy it.
Wumao Wukong Sun have you got paid your dues of 0.5rmb/post already. Are you getting close to become a billionaire. Speak for yourself and don’t mention other billionaires. You’re not on the same league. Even then, if you don’t have $1M, you should go suck Xi Jin Pig’s ass. You’ll definitely enjoy it.
WuKong Sun implies to better change your name to Chinese and migrate. He said salaries are increasing 10% per and great pension funds. Maybe next time, change China’s name to Alice in Wonderland. Lost of utopian fantasy. Any takers ?
WuKong Sun implies to better change your name to Chinese and migrate. He said salaries are increasing 10% per and great pension funds. Maybe next time, change China’s name to Alice in Wonderland. Lost of utopian fantasy. Any takers ?
Total chinese propaganda article , the numbers used are totally wrong the US Navy is growing not shrinking . The article also underestimates America’s allies .Communist never change.
Total chinese propaganda article , the numbers used are totally wrong the US Navy is growing not shrinking . The article also underestimates America’s allies .Communist never change.
Enb Libra I wouldn’t be suprised ,there seems to be a lot of people on here pushing chi-com propraganda.
Enb Libra I wouldn’t be suprised ,there seems to be a lot of people on here pushing chi-com propraganda.
WuKong Sun –You claim Americans are stupid but china has to steal our tech to advance their military , so what does that make china?
WuKong Sun –You claim Americans are stupid but china has to steal our tech to advance their military , so what does that make china?
WuKong Sun Many of your officials
are getting killled or killing themselves coz of corruption ! It belies your reason
https://m.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2175401/why-are-so-many-chinese-officials-killing-themselves
WuKong Sun Many of your officials
are getting killled or killing themselves coz of corruption ! It belies your reason
https://m.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2175401/why-are-so-many-chinese-officials-killing-themselves
Enb Libra Thanks for showing evidence that China government is working efficiently to eliminate corruption. Are U saying U have no criminal corruption punished or in the news therefore there’s no corruption in your country?! ahhaha
Enb Libra Thanks for showing evidence that China government is working efficiently to eliminate corruption. Are U saying U have no criminal corruption punished or in the news therefore there’s no corruption in your country?! ahhaha
WuKong Sun
Before your in denial. Corruption won’t be eliminated in China as it’s so rampant and too imbeded in your culture. It’s so corrupt and it EVEN EXPORT CORRUPTION TO OTHER COUNTRIES. Just a few examples of the many read…
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44813753
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/09/world/patrick-ho-corruption-china-africa/index.html
WuKong Sun
Before your in denial. Corruption won’t be eliminated in China as it’s so rampant and too imbeded in your culture. It’s so corrupt and it EVEN EXPORT CORRUPTION TO OTHER COUNTRIES. Just a few examples of the many read…
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44813753
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/09/world/patrick-ho-corruption-china-africa/index.html